Official Tesla Model 3 thread

The Model 3, restricted to the most expensive trim and options grouping with no lease available, no promotional financing, and no factory incentives or advertising just outsold the Leaf by 2.5x.

The latter has 0% for 72 mo, a subvented lease program, and a free Apple Watch with delivery to those who signed up when they launched the car last September (ie, me). Similar story with the Bolt.

The Tesla is in “production hell” and the Nissan is a refresh of an existing product built in the largest car plant in the country.

Add in a lease program, the standard interior, and the standard battery and it looks like the Model 3 really could have some legs. It’s becoming clear why the company is so outwardly confident about their trajectory.

mtndrew1 said:

The Model 3, restricted to the most expensive trim and options grouping with no lease available, no promotional financing, and no factory incentives or advertising just outsold the Leaf by 2.5x.

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It's more likely that the Nissan LEAF outsold the Tesla Model 3 by 2.5X to 3.0X in March. This even though LEAF production started months after Model 3 production started.

Globally that’s true of course. I should have been more specific.

US market Leafs only come from Smyrna and Tesla doesn’t sell 3s in other countries so I figured it was apparent what I meant.

In the US a refreshed Nissan coming out of the largest assembly plant in the country with heavy incentives is being outsold by the Model 3 with no incentives and a very hefty Monroney by 2.5x.

It’s looking plausible that the Model 3 might outsell the Leaf and Bolt combined (US) for calendar 2018 if all teased choices come online (standard range, AWD, etc.).

mtndrew1 said:

It’s looking plausible that the Model 3 might outsell the Leaf and Bolt combined (US) for calendar 2018 if all teased choices come online (standard range, AWD, etc.).

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That's possible if Tesla can continue to ramp production. OTOH, if Tesla leaves Europe entirely to Nissan, the LEAF will have very little competition there. It seems clear that the LEAF will take Japan for the next couple of years.

Again, as I noted in the post, I’m specifically referring to the US market sales for 2018.

The Model 3 will almost certainly have zero deliveries in non North American markets in calendar 2018 and the Bolt is dead outside of the US and Korea for obvious reasons.

I think the likely failure to deliver at least 4k cars in March is disappointing since production should be well above the 1k/week level now, but the stock price is up so apparently most are happy.

Getting off the topic of sales, I've seen enough Model 3s now from all angles, both in motion and stopped, to decide what I think of its looks. From the dead ahead or the rear-quarter, it reminds me of a frog that someone stepped on. It's not really bad-looking, but the proportions seem a bit off to me. I find the Model S, especially with the original nose, better looking. The only aspect of that car I don't particularly care for is the wide shelves on the rear fenders, making it look heavy in the hips.

GRA said:

I think the likely failure to deliver at least 4k cars in March is disappointing since production should be well above the 1k/week level now, but the stock price is up so apparently most are happy.

Getting off the topic of sales, I've seen enough Model 3s now from all angles, both in motion and stopped, to decide what I think of its looks. From the dead ahead or the rear-quarter, it reminds me of a frog that someone stepped on. It's not really bad-looking, but the proportions seem a bit off to me. I find the Model S, especially with the original nose, better looking. The only aspect of that car I don't particularly care for is the wide shelves on the rear fenders, making it look heavy in the hips.

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Have you seen white and silver yet?

EVDRIVER said:

GRA said:

I think the likely failure to deliver at least 4k cars in March is disappointing since production should be well above the 1k/week level now, but the stock price is up so apparently most are happy.

Getting off the topic of sales, I've seen enough Model 3s now from all angles, both in motion and stopped, to decide what I think of its looks. From the dead ahead or the rear-quarter, it reminds me of a frog that someone stepped on. It's not really bad-looking, but the proportions seem a bit off to me. I find the Model S, especially with the original nose, better looking. The only aspect of that car I don't particularly care for is the wide shelves on the rear fenders, making it look heavy in the hips.

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Have you seen white and silver yet?

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Silver yes, can't remember if I've seen a white one. The majority of the ones I've seen have been Midnight Silver or Deep Blue, but I've also seen at least one red and some black.

GRA said:

I find the Model S, especially with the original nose, better looking. The only aspect of that car I don't particularly care for is the wide shelves on the rear fenders, making it look heavy in the hips.

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Hah! The only thing I don't like about the looks of my S is the "gaping fish mouth" original nose. I find the refresh nose a lot more attractive

So far as color goes, the only Model 3 I've seen in person was the gray "midnight silver." It is such a boring, ugly color for a car that I am baffled why so many seem to like it.

dgpcolorado said:

GRA said:

I find the Model S, especially with the original nose, better looking. The only aspect of that car I don't particularly care for is the wide shelves on the rear fenders, making it look heavy in the hips.

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Hah! The only thing I don't like about the looks of my S is the "gaping fish mouth" original nose. I find the refresh nose a lot more attractive

So far as color goes, the only Model 3 I've seen in person was the gray "midnight silver." It is such a boring, ugly color for a car that I am baffled why so many seem to like it.

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I LOVE that color! Taste is highly subjective though, so I will forgive you
I do agree with you about the refreshed nose being much more attractive.

dgpcolorado said:

GRA said:

I find the Model S, especially with the original nose, better looking. The only aspect of that car I don't particularly care for is the wide shelves on the rear fenders, making it look heavy in the hips.

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Hah! The only thing I don't like about the looks of my S is the "gaping fish mouth" original nose. I find the refresh nose a lot more attractive

So far as color goes, the only Model 3 I've seen in person was the gray "midnight silver." It is such a boring, ugly color for a car that I am baffled why so many seem to like it.

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Agreed, I have yet to see the brilliant silver but it looks nice in pictures and not great on an S.

dgpcolorado said:

GRA said:

I find the Model S, especially with the original nose, better looking. The only aspect of that car I don't particularly care for is the wide shelves on the rear fenders, making it look heavy in the hips.

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Hah! The only thing I don't like about the looks of my S is the "gaping fish mouth" original nose. I find the refresh nose a lot more attractive

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To be clear, I don't particularly like the original nose, I just think it looks better than the new nose, which reminds me of a blank, unintelligent stare. IMO the new nose looks better on the Model S than the X or 3, but that's faint praise

Another insightful alternative M3 market analysis and a review of Tesla’s questionable automotive business model:

Summary
Discussions on Model 3 ramp timing ignore market demand.
Demand for $40,000-$60,000 luxury cars is not infinite.
Are existing Model 3 reservations anywhere near 400,000?

The Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) narrative has been focused entirely on how many Model 3s can be built and when will these production numbers be achieved. I believe the true question investors should be asking is not how many Model 3s can be built, but how many can be sold? On this forum I have read “I expect Model 3 sales of 1.1mm/year in 2020.” This, along with additional sales estimates in various articles of 500,000 next year, 700,000 next year etc. made me question where all this demand will come from?

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I have read both long and short articles that refer to the Tesla Model 3 as their first “mass market” vehicle. Sure, Tesla sold the Model 3 as their first “mass market” vehicle when they revealed it and subsequently brought in 400,000 plus reservations. However, they were selling a $35,000 vehicle with a $7,500 tax credit. As expected, the hype and the reality have turned out to be completely different scenarios. We now know the $35,000 Model 3 does not currently exist, and it is questionable if it ever will due to the losses of any sale at such a price. The reality is the average sales price of the Model 3 will be $45,000-$55,000 with very few buyers reaping a $7,500 tax credit. This fact means the Tesla Model 3 is competing in the in the Small Luxury Market in the best-case scenario, and in the worst-case scenario the Mid-Size Luxury Market. As you will see, both markets are far from the “mass markets.”

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As the underwriters dig into the true financial picture the narrative falls apart if the Model 3 is demand constrained. Underwriters would certainly would have access to the true remaining reservations and the conversion rate. If the significant increase in average sales price of the Model 3 has severely eroded the remaining reservations, there's no investment bank in the world that would underwrite a $2-$3 billion stock offering if the Model 3 demand is nowhere near as advertised.

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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4160861-tesla-model3-massmarketvehicle?auth_param=1adagi:1dc9pst:b4a1ae1c1bd9558ae1c8e8947b2ed486&uprof=44&dr=1

Such a reputable and objective source. Please stop doing this, the complaints are piling up.

Why shoot the messenger. This has been my issue for awhile. I've always thought the reservation narrative to be false and felt that when it came time to strike a check many would back out. The market for $50,000 luxury sedans just isn't that large and they aren't going to get 100% of it anyway.

There is legitimate demand for the Model 3 and Tesla is supply constrained at the moment, so the true picture is difficult to see.

Joe6pack said:

Why shoot the messenger. This has been my issue for awhile. I've always thought the reservation narrative to be false and felt that when it came time to strike a check many would back out. The market for $50,000 luxury sedans just isn't that large and they aren't going to get 100% of it anyway.

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You're right...on the other hand, the number of reservations was about triple of what was actually expected, so even a 33% take rate is still actually great. Let's put it this way--it took Nissan 7 years to sell 300,000 LEAFs worldwide. If Tesla could build that many, even at 33% take rate, they would do the same in 2 years.

And even the logic of the market for $50K sedans is flawed in a way. If demand for the first production Model 3 were to suddenly dry up, then (despite the fact that Loren and others say it will never be built) the SR model will be brought out. But in the meantime, yes, Tesla is going to sell as few versions of the vehicle as they can, focusing on the ones that make the most money. It would be foolish not to! In fact, if anything, deferrals (among the admittedly subject to reporting-bias sources of data) are for more ADVANCED cars, specifically dual motor and air suspension (with a few also holding out for a performance version). Sure, there are many that are also looking for the SR model, but I think the market for a $50K sedan is not as limited as you think (even if maybe it's the Tesla brand aspiration that's expanding that market).

Anyway, I don't have any inside information. Tesla is stating that the reservation count is "holding steady" (without mentioning exactly at what level that is) and that the deferrals they themselves are seeing are for first: AWD and second: SR. Now I always take press releases with a grain of salt. But by the same token I don't think they'd outright lie with statements like that. So yes, as you say, we need to sit back and watch how this plays out. But even in a pessimistic scenario, there is no disputing the fact that Tesla is going to outsell all other EVs (for quite some time).

Saw a report that another 4793 VINs were registered, with the highest now being 25374.

dgpcolorado said:

Saw a report that another 4793 VINs were registered, with the highest now being 25374.

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Add another 2915 VINs, with the highest now being 28289.

dgpcolorado said:

dgpcolorado said:

Saw a report that another 4793 VINs were registered, with the highest now being 25374.

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Add another 2915 VINs, with the highest now being 28289.

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The VIN registration cadence is too high to be explained solely by the improved manufacturing rate of ~ 300 cars a day as of last week.

I get the impression that Tesla has batches of VINs for each trim, so we may be seeing the harbinger of a new trim (or trims.) It could be something as trivial as another option like white upholstery, or as exciting as AWD.

One way or another though, the ramp is happening.

SageBrush said:

dgpcolorado said:

dgpcolorado said:

Saw a report that another 4793 VINs were registered, with the highest now being 25374.

Click to expand...

Add another 2915 VINs, with the highest now being 28289.

Click to expand...

The VIN registration cadence is too high to be explained solely by the improved manufacturing rate of ~ 300 cars a day as of last week.

I get the impression that Tesla has batches of VINs for each trim, so we may be seeing the harbinger of a new trim (or trims.) It could be something as trivial as another option like white upholstery, or as exciting as AWD.

One way or another though, the ramp is happening.

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How about both? That would be pretty good!