Contest: Guess March 2018 LEAF sales

Official numbers are in for the US.

Nissan delivered exactly 1500 Leafs for March 2018. I still haven’t seen one in LA.

http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/channels/U-S-Sales-Reports/releases/nissan-group-reports-march-2018-u-s-sales

This looks closest:

jake14mw said:

US: 1350

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I was WAY off!

Do I get a prize for having the closest guess?

jake14mw said:

Do I get a prize for having the closest guess?

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Yep! Here you go: :!:

Can I get a dollar in for 2,000 Leaf deliveries in April while marginally eclipsing Bolt sales?

RegGuheert said:

The 2018 Nissan LEAF sold 781 copies in Norway in February and threatens to double that number in March with nearly 1200 already sold through the 19th:

InsideEVs said:

However, preliminary data shows that, in the first 19 days of March, a whooping 1,191 LEAFs were registered!

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It appears the LEAF will break Norway's single-month EV records previously set by the Tesla Model S and Model X.

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Well, the 2018 LEAF broke the previous records set by Tesla in Norway:

InsideEVs said:

The best selling car for the month and for the year just so happens to be the Nissan LEAF with 2,172 – up 335% year-over-year and nearly three times its previous record!

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That breaks the Tesla Model S record of 1493 set exactly four years earlier by 45%.

Next contest: what month, if ever, will the new LEAF outsell the Model 3 in the US?

jlv said:

Next contest: what month, if ever, will the new LEAF outsell the Model 3 in the US?

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I don't see that happening. The reason is simple: The US LEAF is built on an single assembly line which produces between 3 and 5 other vehicles. Nissan is not likely to stop production of those other vehicles unless 1) the demand for the other vehicles is extremely low AND 2) the profit margin of the LEAF is way higher than that of the other vehicles on the line. Neither of those is likely to be true at any time in the near future.

The Tesla Model 3, OTOH, is built on a very expensive manufacturing line all by itself. The only way that Tesla can possibly pay for that line is to build as many Tesla Model 3s as possible and sell them at the highest possible profit.

Simply put, it ain't gonna happen unless something really bad happens to Tesla.

RegGuheert said:

jlv said:

Next contest: what month, if ever, will the new LEAF outsell the Model 3 in the US?

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I don't see that happening. ...

Simply put, it ain't gonna happen unless something really bad happens to Tesla.

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I could see it happening the first month of a quarter once Tesla is shipping 3's overseas.
No gaurentee, but that would be the best shot.

RegGuheert said:

jlv said:

Next contest: what month, if ever, will the new LEAF outsell the Model 3 in the US?

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I don't see that happening. The reason is simple: The US LEAF is built on an single assembly line which produces between 3 and 5 other vehicles..

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And why does Nissan set up production that way ?

To match production to demand.

Who wudda thunk !?

InsideEVs reports that Nissan sold 6503 LEAFs in Europe in March:

InsideEVs said:

The automaker sold an unprecedented number of LEAFs in Europe – more than 6,500 in March.

If you recall that we reported a LEAF sales milestone in February – record of 3,766 sold – just imagine how this 6,503 in March compares then. That’s nearly two times the previous record-setting amount.

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InsideEVs said:

It seems that globally Nissan already produces and sells more than 10,000 LEAFs a month.

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Leaf was #5 model in Nissan Europe sales, and at least 11.423 Nissan Leafs sold in March, by adding up sales reports from four major markets:

Nissan Leaf is selling at record levels in Europe

Last month, 6.503 units of the Nissan Leaf were sold in Europe. This is much more than the 2.997 units sold in Japan, the 1.500 units sold in the USA and the 423 units sold in Canada. With all these four regions combined we get a total of 11.423 Nissan Leafs sold in March.

The table below shows us Nissan sales in Europe.

Top 5 models (March 2018)

#

Model

Vehicle sales

1

Qashqai

37.658

2

Micra

13.380

3

X-Trail

10.811

4

Juke

10.174

5

LEAF

6.503

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https://pushevs.com/2018/04/09/nissan-leaf-is-selling-at-record-levels-in-europe/

1.500 units sold in the USA

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Cwerdna nailed it exactly, and I was only off by 25, IIRC. I think sales will climb until about late July, and then plummet as the QC/ battery fail becomes more widely known. I wish to hell I could wait until Labor Day to lease one.

LeftieBiker said:

I wish to hell I could wait until Labor Day to lease one.

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Trying to talk the price down, eh?

I doubt if DCQC is a large part of the median Leaf buyer's needs. I agree that it is handy, but many Leaf owners charge mostly at home on 120V, and "fast" charging is at work or shopping at L2 speeds. Reading MNL isn't an average slice of Leaf owners.

I'm talking about sales falling off because of both the QC throttling and the battery pack temp issue.

LeftieBiker said:

I'm talking about sales falling off because of both the QC throttling and the battery pack temp issue.

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So the price can drop to where you want to buy.... I see.

Just to repeat myself, I usually do not take a trip beyond one QC stop by choice. QC throttling on the third QC would be pretty far down on my concern's list. It would have happened twice since a bought a Leaf, and both were "adventures". I take more long trips than all of the Leaf drivers I know in person.

Most use of a Leaf is commuting or around town.


So why would QC throttling matter to the buyer of a commuter car? Frankly, I just don't see it.

WetEV said:

LeftieBiker said:

I'm talking about sales falling off because of both the QC throttling and the battery pack temp issue.

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So the price can drop to where you want to buy.... I see.

Just to repeat myself, I usually do not take a trip beyond one QC stop by choice. QC throttling on the third QC would be pretty far down on my concern's list. It would have happened twice since a bought a Leaf, and both were "adventures". I take more long trips than all of the Leaf drivers I know in person.

Most use of a Leaf is commuting or around town.


So why would QC throttling matter to the buyer of a commuter car? Frankly, I just don't see it.

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I agree. In the US market I think the quick charge throttling will definitely be an edge case thing. I think few people buy a Leaf dreaming of long distance road trips given the vast spaces between major metropolitan areas in this country.

Now in the EU and UK I can see this being a major issue. Having 150 miles of real range combined with a very robust QC network might be painting a picture to consumers that long travel is feasible, as in an Ioniq. Clearly it’s not and I think we’ll see (more) backlash there.

Where it gets to be a problem in the US will be in the summer in the desert Southwest. If it’s 115 degrees F ambient and someone is expecting a single QC to perform as advertised but gets a 15 or 20 kW charge rate on an evgo station that charges by the minute people are gonna get upset. Furthermore Leafs will get the reputation of clogging up the sparse QC network with their pokey charge times. Not good.

I'm not trying to 'talk the prices down.' I'm talking about a likely drop in prices that won't help me. Once people start seeing battery gauges in the Red Zone while driving normally, in normal Summer weather, the honeymoon will be over for the 2018 Leaf.

WetEV said:

So why would QC throttling matter to the buyer of a commuter car? Frankly, I just don't see it.

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Can you see a battery running around at 120F for months on end mattering to those same buyers ?

SageBrush said:

WetEV said:

So why would QC throttling matter to the buyer of a commuter car? Frankly, I just don't see it.

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Can you see a battery running around at 120F for months on end mattering to those same buyers ?

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You know that the battery will be running around 120F because you drive a 2018 and have observed the battery temperature for at least months?

Oh, you have at least seen a 2018 once in real life?