Any chance the 2018 is a "one off"?

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Newporttom

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Been thinking about the 2019 E-plus having new batteries in them and a TMS. Seems if you've done all the management for a new batteries and a TMS, the simplest, easiest thing to do when developing a lower cost version is to have them be identical except one has a smaller battery.

So the 2019 base editions would be 40 and the E-plus versions would be 60 but both have the LG Chem batteries and a TMS,

There is also supposed to bigger motor, faster chargers etc. I suppose you could maintain 2 systems, but seems it would be simpler all around to have everything the same except battery size.

Would solve Nissan's biggest criticism across the board.

In my daydreaming about this, I envision pressure to get the new model out. The new car design is ready but not the new battery/charger, etc. So rather than wait till 2019, they put out a new design with the same "guts", and when 2019 models come out they ALL have the same motors, batteries, charger, but there is also an E-Plus version.

It would make the 2018 a "one-off" model year.
 
Been thinking about the 2019 E-plus having new batteries in them and a TMS. Seems if you've done all the management for a new batteries and a TMS, the simplest, easiest thing to do when developing a lower cost version is to have them be identical except one has a smaller battery.

Unfortunately, the cheapest thing Nissan could do would be to keep producing the un-cooled 40kwh pack (I'm still reserving the right to name it the "Lettuce Pack" if it proves as bad as suspected) in the lower end Leafs. As long as they aren't looking at replacing most of them under warranty, anyway.
 
For a while, Nissan was simultaneously producing cars with both the 3.8 and 6.6 kW on board chargers, and yet was still able to offer a lower priced model. So it's possible to do so while having some unique parts.
 
RonDawg said:
For a while, Nissan was simultaneously producing cars with both the 3.8 and 6.6 kW on board chargers, and yet was still able to offer a lower priced model. So it's possible to do so while having some unique parts.

I'm not sure what your point is here, but in the case of the onboard chargers they introduced a new, more expensive one while keeping the older, presumably cheaper design for their less expensive Leafs. This is comparable to offering a completely new 60kwh pack with TMS for the SL and maybe optionally the SV, while keeping this 40kwh uncooled pack for the less expensive versions of the car. Coming up with two completely new battery packs would be much more expensive for them. If things go as it's seeming likely they will go, they might want to consider offering the 24kwh Lizard pack again...
 
Sorry, but the Lizard pack is as bad as the rest in hot climates. I guess if you can claim you got 6-8 more months out of it overall, someone could say that is better.
 
Evoforce said:
Sorry, but the Lizard pack is as bad as the rest in hot climates. I guess if you can claim you got 6-8 more months out of it overall, someone could say that is better.

I'm talking about bringing back the Lizard pack for normal climates. No Leaf should be run in Arizona and similar climates if there is a choice.
 
LeftieBiker said:
RonDawg said:
For a while, Nissan was simultaneously producing cars with both the 3.8 and 6.6 kW on board chargers, and yet was still able to offer a lower priced model. So it's possible to do so while having some unique parts.

I'm not sure what your point is here, but in the case of the onboard chargers they introduced a new, more expensive one while keeping the older, presumably cheaper design for their less expensive Leafs. This is comparable to offering a completely new 60kwh pack with TMS for the SL and maybe optionally the SV, while keeping this 40kwh uncooled pack for the less expensive versions of the car. Coming up with two completely new battery packs would be much more expensive for them. If things go as it's seeming likely they will go, they might want to consider offering the 24kwh Lizard pack again...


I'm replying to this specific part of the OP's post: "There is also supposed to bigger motor, faster chargers etc. I suppose you could maintain 2 systems, but seems it would be simpler all around to have everything the same except battery size." Nissan was able to offer two charger speeds (three if you include CHAdeMO) and yet were able to keep the price down.
 
LeftieBiker said:
Evoforce said:
Sorry, but the Lizard pack is as bad as the rest in hot climates. I guess if you can claim you got 6-8 more months out of it overall, someone could say that is better.

I'm talking about bringing back the Lizard pack for normal climates. No Leaf should be run in Arizona and similar climates if there is a choice.

So technically not just Arizona but at least a third if not half of the United States. Then for the "qualifying" States we would still be left with a battery that will still be greatly shorter in lifespan than every other brand.
 
I actually wouldn't be at all surprised if Nissan took a page out of Tesla's book and the 2019 Leafs are all identical and you simply pay a fee to unlock extra features.

This is actually the cheapest option and gives them a longer term revenue stream. After all the biggest problem with getting manufacturers to make more electric vehicles is they don't make money off the maintenance, so this would give them an opportunity to make some money that could replace that revenue stream.
 
I really don't see how putting a 60kwh battery in a Leaf S is the cheapest option for Nissan. The difference in battery costs far outweighs any savings in manufacturing costs.
 
LeftieBiker said:
I really don't see how putting a 60kwh battery in a Leaf S is the cheapest option for Nissan. The difference in battery costs far outweighs any savings in manufacturing costs.
I would tend to agree, it's not just like software where it literally costs nothing to already have the feature in your download and the cost to enable that feature is what you pay for. Still, I wonder if it actually saves Tesla money or is it just easier to mask the loss in a car that sells for $70k than one like the Leaf that sells for half that.......I'm guessing the more reasonable priced model 3 will not be that way?
 
LeftieBiker said:
I really don't see how putting a 60kwh battery in a Leaf S is the cheapest option for Nissan. The difference in battery costs far outweighs any savings in manufacturing costs.

That offers a giant assumption about: warranty costs, manufacturing costs, etc.

It may turn out that the difference between the two packs is outstripped by simplifications of plant production. More options generally means more tooling expense, JIT expenses, etc.

It's just not that cut and dry.
 
LeftieBiker said:
The price of the individual cells is pretty cut and dried, at least for the immediate future.

Nothing in supply chain management is ever cut and dried. Capacity to order ratio sets pricing, as does relationships, and other agreements.

I remember years ago when working as a buyer for an OEM negotiating hard-drives and getting prices of 250MB drives for 10% more than a 120MB harddisk drive. Yet to the general public, everyone assumed there was a "Cost per megabyte" at the time.

That's simply not how manufacturing works. It's a function of input costs, plus fixed costs over what the market will bear out. It could very well be that the difference in price between a 60kwh pack and a 40kwh pack is the same all costs considered. It may also be the opposite.

I'm just saying, unless you're the CFO of Nissan you have no way of knowing. Even if you are the CFO of Nissan, it's likely hard to tell.
 
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