GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

GRA said:

jlsoaz said:

Some of us feared that Nissan and Mr. Ghosn were relying overly much on an argument we had employed in the 90s and 2000s in California to get Gen1 EV explorers to realize that the average commute is a short distance and can be served in theory by a shorter-range BEV. We knew that this argument is limited, and does not get at the heart of the matter when trying to reach a broader addressable market.<snip>

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The argument is considerably older than the 1990s. Exactly the same arguments about how limited BEV range was all you needed for a city (read commute) car, that they could handle 95% (or more) of people's trips, etc. were being made by US EV advocates in the 19-oughts and (increasingly desperately) in the early 19-teens. It was just as true then as it is now, but the car-buying public didn't see things that way in either period. They wanted the range to be able to tour and not be 'tethered to a wire,' even though they'd rarely do so (the roads outside of cities weren't hard-surfaced, and were either dusty or mud furrows), and as the price of cars came down and the middle class could afford one (but only one), they wanted a universal car rather than a limited one. While many more households in the U.S. can afford multiple cars with considerable specialization now, as was only the case with the rich when cars first debuted, there is still a lot of resistance to the idea of limited vehicles, and that will continue as long as they are more expensive than unlimited ones.

Probably the easiest way out of this is when AV car sharing arrives in the not too distant future, as that will allow the public to have routine access to specialized fleets rather than having to specialize on a household basis, and do so at much lower cost.

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Thanks, when I wrote this about the 90s and 2000s, I was wondering. It's good to have the improved historical knowledge, ... appreciate the response. On the argument itself, I'm firmly in the camp of pointing up that in effect, it is cutting off sales from a substantial part of the addressable market. It wasn't any different to experience this really than I thought it would be, but I do think it's worth saying that when I leased a Leaf crippled with this short gen1 BEV range, it cost me enough money (including to have to retain a gasoline car for longer trips) that I saw it not as a way of compromising and economizing (driving a vehicle that economize on energy use and expenses), but as a way of living well beyond my means for 39 months, in the area of transportation.

When BEVs are able to appear on a list like this one from iSeeCars.com, while meeting all someone's needs as a universal car, it will no longer be necessary to make excuses for them:

The 15 Cars Owners Keep for 15 Years or More

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https://www.iseecars.com/used-car-finder#section=studies&study=cars-owners-keep

Of course, higher gas prices such as we're seeing now will speed up the transition - per AAA California's avg. is currently $3.639, and that doesn't yet take show any effect from sanctions on Iran. BTW, my Forester (#13 on the list) turned 15 in January, and should be good for at least another 5 years.

GRA said:

When BEVs are able to appear on a list like this one from iSeeCars.com, while meeting all someone's needs as a universal car, it will no longer be necessary to make excuses for them:

The 15 Cars Owners Keep for 15 Years or More

Click to expand...

https://www.iseecars.com/used-car-finder#section=studies&study=cars-owners-keep

Of course, higher gas prices such as we're seeing now will speed up the transition - per AAA California's avg. is currently $3.639, and that doesn't yet take show any effect from sanctions on Iran. BTW, my Forester (#13 on the list) turned 15 in January, and should be good for at least another 5 years.

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Well, it's a good link to focus some of the conversation on value, though for perspective, I think the idea that we will have to wait at least 15 years from the introduction of a candidate no-excuses BEV to verify that it shows up on such a list is too long a wait for some purposes.

I do agree that higher gas prices will ease the transition. IMO, given the dangers that carbon dioxide emissions very likely pose, it is in my view inexcusable that we do not have higher taxes (ideally a government-imposed price floor I think) on gasoline and diesel in the US, to account for widespread property and health damage very likely caused by those who choose to use those fuels. That is, we have waited too long for those somewhat higher prices to come about and IMO should have acted sooner to raise them by government policy.

In any event, my main point here remains that many of us long ago developed a sense of roughly where the sweet spot would be on range, for making BEVS appeal to a larger addressable market, and Mr. Ghosn is badly incorrect in his claim that in effect one needed to do something like sell 500k to have this well-developed sense of where that spot is.

jlsoaz said:

Nearly 10 years ago I was speaking with an EV advocate and he voiced to me that in his view EVS would not really take off in broader interest until they hit 150 miles range. Sure, you get some sales under that, but he was referring to (and I am referring to, and Ghosn is referring to), the question of what range is necessary to reach a more mainstream broader addressable market. Some of us asked or begged Nissan and Mr. Ghosn to give us a choice of a larger more expensive battery in the Leaf or another BEV, but it took quite some time before larger battery Leafs started coming out, and they did not seem to keep pace with the best of the competition (the Bolt, the Model 3).

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"Mainstream acceptance" isn't an event, it is a process. The time scale has always been decades, not years. Even if Nissan could have sold hundred million EVs, the battery production wasn't and isn't there yet to support that sort of numbers.

jlsoaz said:

Perhaps a contributing factor here was Nissan's commitment to shorter range and less-well-cooled battery technology, and (apparent) refusal to consider options more quickly.

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This battery technology was also safer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=Jz37WycW-7E

Don't try this with a can of gasoline. Or with a Tesla battery.

jlsoaz said:

In any event, my main point here remains that many of us long ago developed a sense of roughly where the sweet spot would be on range, for making BEVS appeal to a larger addressable market, and Mr. Ghosn is badly incorrect in his claim that in effect one needed to do something like sell 500k to have this well-developed sense of where that spot is.

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The trouble with this statement is that it is very US-centric. Yet Mr. Ghosn's view is world-wide. He is confident that 150 miles is a good no-compromise range for basically any market that is no the US. He said himself that the US was a tougher nut, and it will be cracked with the 225-mile 2019 Leaf. But for now, the 2018 Leaf is selling very well in Asia and Europe. Those markets seem content with the current driving range.

GetOffYourGas said:

jlsoaz said:

In any event, my main point here remains that many of us long ago developed a sense of roughly where the sweet spot would be on range, for making BEVS appeal to a larger addressable market, and Mr. Ghosn is badly incorrect in his claim that in effect one needed to do something like sell 500k to have this well-developed sense of where that spot is.

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The trouble with this statement is that it is very US-centric. Yet Mr. Ghosn's view is world-wide. He is confident that 150 miles is a good no-compromise range for basically any market that is no the US. He said himself that the US was a tougher nut, and it will be cracked with the 225-mile 2019 Leaf. But for now, the 2018 Leaf is selling very well in Asia and Europe. Those markets seem content with the current driving range.

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This is exactly right. The US isn't even an automotive growth market - Asia, primarily China is. This is primarily a US-centric website so the opinions tend to be US-centric. Saying things like "Ghosn is badly incorrect" are naive. In my opinion, he is exactly correct and sales of the LEAF and Zoe demonstrate that. I am sure there are examples, but I am having trouble thinking of a car designed primarily for the US market that sold well in Asia or Europe.

WetEV said:

jlsoaz said:

Nearly 10 years ago I was speaking with an EV advocate and he voiced to me that in his view EVS would not really take off in broader interest until they hit 150 miles range. Sure, you get some sales under that, but he was referring to (and I am referring to, and Ghosn is referring to), the question of what range is necessary to reach a more mainstream broader addressable market. Some of us asked or begged Nissan and Mr. Ghosn to give us a choice of a larger more expensive battery in the Leaf or another BEV, but it took quite some time before larger battery Leafs started coming out, and they did not seem to keep pace with the best of the competition (the Bolt, the Model 3).

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"Mainstream acceptance" isn't an event, it is a process. The time scale has always been decades, not years. Even if Nissan could have sold hundred million EVs, the battery production wasn't and isn't there yet to support that sort of numbers.

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Depends on the tech. Gasoline cars achieved mainstream acceptance in a little over a decade. PCs took a bit longer, as did cell phones.

GRA said:

Gasoline cars achieved mainstream acceptance in a little over a decade.

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Answer depends on where and for what, and exactly how you define "achieving mainstream acceptance", but a fair answer is longer than "a little over a decade". Cars and tractors were much slower to be adopted in rural areas. Limit the focus to say Manhattan Island, NYC, NY, USA, and the transition is much sharper and earlier.

Battery electric cars have "achieved mainstream acceptance" in Norway with 37% of cars sold being electric. The rest of the world is taking longer.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/04/norway-welcomes-electric-cars-punishes-traditional-manufacturers/

So why Norway? Incentives? Other countries had larger incentives, and much lower sales. Norway is rich? Other countries are richer, and had much lower sales. Leaf sales are about 43% of the electric share, or 16% of total sales. Not quite to Model T market share. Yet.

Joe6pack said:

GetOffYourGas said:

jlsoaz said:

In any event, my main point here remains that many of us long ago developed a sense of roughly where the sweet spot would be on range, for making BEVS appeal to a larger addressable market, and Mr. Ghosn is badly incorrect in his claim that in effect one needed to do something like sell 500k to have this well-developed sense of where that spot is.

Click to expand...

The trouble with this statement is that it is very US-centric. Yet Mr. Ghosn's view is world-wide. He is confident that 150 miles is a good no-compromise range for basically any market that is no the US. He said himself that the US was a tougher nut, and it will be cracked with the 225-mile 2019 Leaf. But for now, the 2018 Leaf is selling very well in Asia and Europe. Those markets seem content with the current driving range.

Click to expand...

This is exactly right. The US isn't even an automotive growth market - Asia, primarily China is. This is primarily a US-centric website so the opinions tend to be US-centric. Saying things like "Ghosn is badly incorrect" are naive. In my opinion, he is exactly correct and sales of the LEAF and Zoe demonstrate that. I am sure there are examples, but I am having trouble thinking of a car designed primarily for the US market that sold well in Asia or Europe.

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Hi Joe6pack and GetOffYourGas:

Here is what I have said: "...Mr. Ghosn is badly incorrect in his claim that in effect one needed to do something like sell 500k to have this well-developed sense of where that spot is...."

So, I haven't disputed anything as to what Mr. Ghosn has (finally) concluded is a good sweet spot. 250-300-350km... sounds about right to me. A bit more for the US market and a bit less for many other markets? Sure.

The problem is, in my opinion, that it took Mr. Ghosn and Nissan about 6-8 years from the gen1 vehicles to figure this out (i.e.: to design and make available on the market BEVs with this range), and when they did, Mr. Ghosn made a bold claim that, in effect, it had to take so many sales (and thus, so many years). So, what I am saying is: No, it did not have to take that many sales and that many years.

I can't find it, offhand, because I have only seen the movie once awhile ago, but I wonder if someone knows if Mr. Ghosn is on record in "Revenge Of The Electric Car" as to his views on the multiplier of the average daily commute, and Nissan's decision-making as to the range of the Gen1 Leafs.

jlsoaz said:

Joe6pack said:

GetOffYourGas said:

The trouble with this statement is that it is very US-centric. Yet Mr. Ghosn's view is world-wide. He is confident that 150 miles is a good no-compromise range for basically any market that is no the US. He said himself that the US was a tougher nut, and it will be cracked with the 225-mile 2019 Leaf. But for now, the 2018 Leaf is selling very well in Asia and Europe. Those markets seem content with the current driving range.

Click to expand...

This is exactly right. The US isn't even an automotive growth market - Asia, primarily China is. This is primarily a US-centric website so the opinions tend to be US-centric. Saying things like "Ghosn is badly incorrect" are naive. In my opinion, he is exactly correct and sales of the LEAF and Zoe demonstrate that. I am sure there are examples, but I am having trouble thinking of a car designed primarily for the US market that sold well in Asia or Europe.

Click to expand...

Hi Joe6pack and GetOffYourGas:

Here is what I have said: "...Mr. Ghosn is badly incorrect in his claim that in effect one needed to do something like sell 500k to have this well-developed sense of where that spot is...."

So, I haven't disputed anything as to what Mr. Ghosn has (finally) concluded is a good sweet spot. 250-300-350km... sounds about right to me. A bit more for the US market and a bit less for many other markets? Sure.

The problem is, in my opinion, that it took Mr. Ghosn and Nissan about 6-8 years from the gen1 vehicles to figure this out (i.e.: to design and make available on the market BEVs with this range), and when they did, Mr. Ghosn made a bold claim that, in effect, it had to take so many sales (and thus, so many years). So, what I am saying is: No, it did not have to take that many sales and that many years.

I can't find it, offhand, because I have only seen the movie once awhile ago, but I wonder if someone knows if Mr. Ghosn is on record in "Revenge Of The Electric Car" as to his views on the multiplier of the average daily commute, and Nissan's decision-making as to the range of the Gen1 Leafs.

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This is revisionist history. To say that the LEAF could have had a 150 mile range and be affordable 8 years ago simply isn't true. This is an evolution, not a revolution. Folks on these boards like to throw around the word "disappointed", and we can all look back and say woulda, coulda, shoulda, but someone had to greenlight a billion dollar decision with the best available information. I'm not saying Ghosn called it perfectly, but I do think he did the best he could with what he had available at the time. He built what he thought the market wanted (and could afford to actually purchase). Now, we've moved on to the next phase - the next step up.

You know, I was driving my 2012 LEAF yesterday and the thought occurred to me: Why doesn't Nissan continue to offer a 24kWh LEAF? What would its price point be? Regardless of how much range we all "think" we need or "feel" we need, 72-84 miles is more than adequate for daily use - even in the US - as a commuter car. Most of us are going to have multi-car households anyway. I guess Nissan does not feel that this market exists.

I'm down 21%. roughly 65 miles in good weather. 2014 SV. I haven't attempted a 70 mile trip to the coast since summer 2017. I'm ready to move on from my "72-84" miles EV. It's been great but there is better out there than a box o batteries on wheels. Affordable? sure. Long-lasting? not so much.

I was expecting degradation. not 21%. but something a bit, er, less.

I was expecting a somewhat sparse DC "fast" charging network. Maybe some additions or more stalls per location...NOTHING has improved or expanded in the Chademo arena in the 4 years here in Oregon. It's just as good (or just as sparse?) as it ever was and ever will be. THAT is another strike against the Leaf. just saying.

So, to pull this all together...yes, some people will have no problem with short range EVs, even degrading short range EVs, and a limited DC fast charging network. Yay for them! Every little bit helps...until the EV experience turns south because batteries in a box do NOT hold up very well even in good conditions. How are you convincing non-believers that this Leaf is as good as the gas car they must give up?

Some people will want more from their next EV, or ANY EV. I'm in that camp.

What say u Nissan? Can u do this?

Joe6pack said:

This is revisionist history. To say that the LEAF could have had a 150 mile range and be affordable 8 years ago simply isn't true. This is an evolution, not a revolution. Folks on these boards like to throw around the word "disappointed", and we can all look back and say woulda, coulda, shoulda, but someone had to greenlight a billion dollar decision with the best available information. I'm not saying Ghosn called it perfectly, but I do think he did the best he could with what he had available at the time. He built what he thought the market wanted (and could afford to actually purchase). Now, we've moved on to the next phase - the next step up.

You know, I was driving my 2012 LEAF yesterday and the thought occurred to me: Why doesn't Nissan continue to offer a 24kWh LEAF? What would its price point be? Regardless of how much range we all "think" we need or "feel" we need, 72-84 miles is more than adequate for daily use - even in the US - as a commuter car. Most of us are going to have multi-car households anyway. I guess Nissan does not feel that this market exists.

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+1

Many of the early Leaf adopters wanted a revolution, and expected a ideal wonder car that could cause one.

The Leaf couldn't, didn't and doesn't live up to the expectation of a revolution. That doesn't make the best selling electric car in history a failure. It is a reasonable commuter car. It is very reliable. It is quiet and smooth. It is responsive. It is, frankly, a little boring. In a good way.

Most real change is evolutionary, not revolutionary.

I just wanted a realistic electric car. One that might start the evolution of a change from ICE to electric transportation. I could live with a shorter range. I could live with higher cost. I could live with shorter life. All within limits, of course. Commuting hit my expectations, but I had been driving an electric before I bought the Leaf. Longer trips are easier than I expected. Depending on future gasoline prices, I might even have lower cost than buying a gasoline car even without the subsidies. Battery life in a cool climate is better than I hoped for.

I have been impressed with several things I wasn't expecting about the Leaf. The largest is the joy of never needing to stop for gasoline while commuting. 10 seconds per day to plug in and unplug in the comfort of my garage is so much nicer than minutes spent at a gas station once per week. Especially when the temperature is near freezing and the rain is falling horizontally due to the wind.

I expect a lot of evolution with electric cars over the next decade. Lots of changes. The Leaf might continue to be successful or not. All electric cars today need some combination of the following: lower cost, more range, more reliable, safer, ... in short, electric cars need to evolve.

Lower cost might mean longer battery life and/or lower cost batteries. Lower cost might well compensate for shorter life.

If Nissan can make a living selling its compromised yet expensive EV to enthusiasts living in cool climates, by all means.
The rest of the world is moving on.

SageBrush said:

If Nissan can make a living selling its compromised yet expensive EV to enthusiasts living in cool climates, by all means.
The rest of the world is moving on.

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The rest of the world is not CA and the desert southwest. In fact, the rest of the world (outside of the US) loves the Leaf. It is the best selling EV ever made, and its sales are still growing.

WetEV said:

GRA said:

Gasoline cars achieved mainstream acceptance in a little over a decade.

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Answer depends on where and for what, and exactly how you define "achieving mainstream acceptance", but a fair answer is longer than "a little over a decade". Cars and tractors were much slower to be adopted in rural areas. Limit the focus to say Manhattan Island, NYC, NY, USA, and the transition is much sharper and earlier.

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We can dance around all day with exactly when ICEs were 'introduced', but they had won out over horses and other car techs by the first decade of the 1900s. That they didn't replace all other techs (including horses) for decades is true, but we're talking about mainstream acceptance, not full replacement. The Model T's design had numerous features intended to be of value to rural residents given the lousy roads outside of cities, and they adopted it wholeheartedly for farm-to-market and town travel as well as other uses.

WetEV said:

Battery electric cars have "achieved mainstream acceptance" in Norway with 37% of cars sold being electric. The rest of the world is taking longer.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/04/norway-welcomes-electric-cars-punishes-traditional-manufacturers/

So why Norway? Incentives? Other countries had larger incentives, and much lower sales. Norway is rich? Other countries are richer, and had much lower sales. Leaf sales are about 43% of the electric share, or 16% of total sales. Not quite to Model T market share. Yet.

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Exactly which countries have/had large subsidies than Norway? Denmark (which subsequently reduced them)? When you eliminate taxes and thus reduce the price of a car to half what a comparable ICE costs, and then toss a bunch of perks like free parking, free ferry rides, and use of bus lanes on top of it, of course you'll see acceptance. I'd reword your claim as follows: "Battery electric cars with massive subsidies and numerous perks have achieved mainstream acceptance in Norway, but even with all of the above, almost two-thirds of customers still opt for fossil-fueled cars." Or, as I've said before, if you gave Hummers the same level of subsidies and perks in this country they'd be the best-selling vehicle. Even without all those goodies the F-150 has been #1 here for the past 35 years.

GetOffYourGas said:

SageBrush said:

If Nissan can make a living selling its compromised yet expensive EV to enthusiasts living in cool climates, by all means.
The rest of the world is moving on.

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It is the best selling EV ever made, and its sales are still growing.

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And dwindling.
Wait till Model 3 reaches Europe. Game over for the the Nissan EV unless they do something I consider really, really unlikely --- like get a clue.

The entry level price point for the Leaf or any EV needs to be competitive with petrol vehicles without a tax break or subsidy. Entry level and mid tier level EV vehicles need to be affordable. Most of these vehicles are driving local town/city miles so they could keep battery capacity smaller as long as there is a good, affordable, reliable charging network. You want to add subsidies to that to make them more affordable than a petrol vehicle then you have a game changer. The migration will begin.

Sure it would be great to have cars with big fast charging batteries capable of road trips etc. But until you can get the cost affordable for average people we are not going to see a shift. Again infrastructure is the game changer. The rules need to change regarding the utilities being able to offer charging stations. For communities to be able to offer charging stations.

The shift can begin if manufacturers can get the costs down. So far the definition of affordable is not what I was call affordable.

Joe6pack said:

You know, I was driving my 2012 LEAF yesterday and the thought occurred to me: Why doesn't Nissan continue to offer a 24kWh LEAF? What would its price point be? Regardless of how much range we all "think" we need or "feel" we need, 72-84 miles is more than adequate for daily use - even in the US - as a commuter car. Most of us are going to have multi-car households anyway. I guess Nissan does not feel that this market exists.

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I agree with 75 miles being "adequate" for daily use.

But, there are 2 issues.

1. People generally don't buy different cars for different uses, unless you are in the top 1%. When people have multiple cars, it is usually for multiple people (or some old cars not disposed off).

2. 75 mile range needs to be "usable" all-weather range. Not from full to turtle range in summer on slow roads.

And then you have range degradation over time. So, for 75 (or 100) miles of usable all-weather freeway range ?

First, you need 75 miles from full to "battery low". This is because, once you get into "battery low" you are into range anxiety zone. So, that adds some 25 miles.

Second, we need some 20% more for freeway driving.

Third, some 30% for cold weather.

Forth, some 20 to 30% for battery degradation over time.

So, we are at 200 miles of "nominal" range.

evnow said:

I agree with 75 miles being "adequate" for daily use.

But, there are 2 issues.

1. People generally don't buy different cars for different uses, unless you are in the top 1%. When people have multiple cars, it is usually for multiple people (or some old cars not disposed off).

2. 75 mile range needs to be "usable" all-weather range. Not from full to turtle range in summer on slow roads.

And then you have range degradation over time. So, for 75 (or 100) miles of usable all-weather freeway range ?

First, you need 75 miles from full to "battery low". This is because, once you get into "battery low" you are into range anxiety zone. So, that adds some 25 miles.

Second, we need some 20% more for freeway driving.

Third, some 30% for cold weather.

Forth, some 20 to 30% for battery degradation over time.

So, we are at 200 miles of "nominal" range.

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+1. I would add that many, perhaps most people also require an emergency reserve (drive to the hospital etc.) that may be considerably greater than low battery, and a lot of them would like to have at least two days of autonomy in case there's a power outage overnight (or they simply forget to charge), so they can still get to work and back and have time to make other arrangements for the following day. Not that that will help in a widespread outage for a prolonged period, but it does cover at least the more common problems.

GRA said:

evnow said:

So, we are at 200 miles of "nominal" range.

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+1. I would add that many, perhaps most people also require an emergency reserve (drive to the hospital etc.) that may be considerably greater than low battery, and a lot of them would like to have at least two days of autonomy in case there's a power outage overnight (or they simply forget to charge), so they can still get to work and back and have time to make other arrangements for the following day. Not that that will help in a widespread outage for a prolonged period, but it does cover at least the more common problems.

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So now we are 500 miles of nominal range. :roll:

Do I hear 1000 miles?