TSLA corporate outlook

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^ If they do run into solvency issues at some point nobody can say there weren't warning signs. I still think if the going gets tough silicon valley will circle the wagons and they aren't going anywhere, but it would still be ugly for shareholders.
 
I don't think this will have a significant affect on the company, but as it possibly pertains to the risks of the specific battery chemistry this seems a better topic than one dedicated to a particular Tesla model. Via ABG:
NTSB investigating deaths of Florida teens in fiery Tesla crash
Speed was a factor in the crash, police said
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/05/09/ntsb-tesla-crash-teens-killed-fort-lauderdale/
. . . The National Transportation Safety Board said it was sending a team of four investigators to look into the crash. The NTSB said it did not anticipate that Autopilot was a factor. The board said it was interested in how first responders dealt with the post-crash fire involving the electric vehicle's battery.

"NTSB has a long history of investigating emerging transportation technologies, such as lithium ion battery fires in commercial aviation, as well as a fire involving the lithium ion battery in a Chevrolet Volt in collaboration with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration," said NTSB Chairman Robert S. Sumwalt. "In addition, the NTSB is currently investigating a fire involving the transportation of hydrogen gas for fuel cell vehicles. The goal of these investigations is to understand the impact of these emerging transportation technologies when they are part of a transportation accident. . . ."
 
GRA said:
I don't think this will have a significant affect on the company, but as it possibly pertains to the risks of the specific battery chemistry this seems a better topic than one dedicated to a particular Tesla model. Via ABG:
NTSB investigating deaths of Florida teens in fiery Tesla crash
Speed was a factor in the crash, police said
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/05/09/ntsb-tesla-crash-teens-killed-fort-lauderdale/
. . . The National Transportation Safety Board said it was sending a team of four investigators to look into the crash. The NTSB said it did not anticipate that Autopilot was a factor. The board said it was interested in how first responders dealt with the post-crash fire involving the electric vehicle's battery.

"NTSB has a long history of investigating emerging transportation technologies, such as lithium ion battery fires in commercial aviation, as well as a fire involving the lithium ion battery in a Chevrolet Volt in collaboration with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration," said NTSB Chairman Robert S. Sumwalt. "In addition, the NTSB is currently investigating a fire involving the transportation of hydrogen gas for fuel cell vehicles. The goal of these investigations is to understand the impact of these emerging transportation technologies when they are part of a transportation accident. . . ."
Now that teslas have depreciated to the point where they're cheap enough for large numbers of teenagers to get their hands on them, you should expect more and more crash-followed by-fires reports like this.

Video at the link:


Tesla crash: Car explosion leaves two dead in Florida


A FIERY car crash near Fort Lauderdale beach in Florida has left two 18-year-olds dead.


...Another resident, who asked to remain anonymous, said the car was speeding southbound on the Seabreeze Boulevard when it crashed and spun out of control.

They said: “Two people trapped in the front seats.

“Nobody could help because the car was on fire. The fire was so intense that nobody could reach them. There were people trying to get there but it wasn’t happening.”...
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/957263/tesla-crash-florida-two-killed

Let's all hope TSLA made safety improvements (less explosive?) in the new battery format it uses in the model 3, or you'll be able to watch lots of TSLA crash-followed by-fire videos in a few years, if TSLA manages to sell close to as many 3's as it has claimed it will.
 
Via ABG:
A list of Tesla car fires since 2013
Fatal Florida crash is the latest
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/05/11/a-list-of-tesla-car-fires-since-2013/

While Tesla's NCA batteries are more likely to overheat and catch fire than other Li-ion chemistries, I don't see this as a major problem for them (yet). It's a straight trade-off between energy densities and thermal runaway risk. Should the incidence of such fires increase significantly, that could change.
 
GRA said:
Via ABG:
...While Tesla's NCA batteries are more likely to overheat and catch fire than other Li-ion chemistries, I don't see this as a major problem for them (yet). It's a straight trade-off between energy densities and thermal runaway risk...
Incinerated plaintiff's attorneys of course will attempt to convince juries that It's a straight trade-off between Tesla's profits and vehicle safety.

Yet another hazard posed by TSLA packs is that unlike gasoline tanks they are capable of not only self-ignition, but once damaged remain susceptible to re-ignition, until drained of energy:

Tesla battery reignites days after deadly crash...

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. (KTVU) -
2 Investigates has uncovered new information about the deadly Tesla crash in Mountain View earlier this year along with a serious warning for all firefighters responding to electric vehicle crashes.

KTVU has obtained a 13-page safety alert written by Mountain View Fire Chief Juan Diaz, in which he highlights the dangers firefighters faced while responding to that wreck, including a high-voltage battery they had no way to stop.

Firefighters say they put the fire out in two minutes but soon discovered the battery fire in the electric vehicle would smolder for hours and reignite multiple times, even days later.

"The battery began to overheat even though we had already cooled the battery and it continued to reignite," said Diaz. "We don't have the tools to deal with a battery that is completely, basically destroyed.”

The problem, he says, was a lithium-ion battery that continued to flow with electricity after it was damaged in the high-speed crash, which the NTSB is still investigating...

The Mountain View Fire Department tells 2 Investigates the Tesla caught fire three to four times after the crash.

Diaz says it was only after the NTSB and Tesla de-energized the battery two weeks later that it was finally safe.

In the memo, shared with every fire department in the Bay Area, the fire chief also warns of another dangerous scenario firefighters could face: if a house catches fire with an electric vehicle parked at home, the damaged car battery could reignite later.

"If the battery is damaged, then we're going to have to basically monitor that vehicle for a prolonged (time) -- could be days -- to make sure it doesn't reignite," said Diaz...
http://www.ktvu.com/news/tesla-battery-reignites-days-after-deadly-crash-2-investigates
 
edatoakrun said:
GRA said:
Via ABG:
...While Tesla's NCA batteries are more likely to overheat and catch fire than other Li-ion chemistries, I don't see this as a major problem for them (yet). It's a straight trade-off between energy densities and thermal runaway risk...
Incinerated plaintiff's attorneys of course will attempt to convince juries that It's a straight trade-off between Tesla's profits and vehicle safety.
No doubt, but unless they can show that they are more dangerous than gasoline I think they'll have a tough time winning the case. Unlike, say, A/P-caused accidents.

edatoakrun said:
[Yet another hazard posed by TSLA packs is that unlike gasoline tanks they are capable of not only self-ignition, but once damaged remain susceptible to re-ignition, until drained of energy: <snip>
And if it thinks they're needed, the NTSB will make recommendations for modifications to the ERG and first responder training that they believe are necessary, just as they do with any other hazmat:
2016 ERG : The Emergency Response Guidebook (ERG 2016) was developed jointly by the US Department of Transportation, Transport Canada, and the Secretariat of Communications and Transportation of Mexico (SCT) for use by firefighters, police, and other emergency services personnel who may be the first to arrive at the scene of a transportation incident involving a hazardous material. It is primarily a guide to aid first responders in (1) quickly identifying the specific or generic classification of the material(s) involved in the incident, and (2) protecting themselves and the general public during this initial response phase of the incident. The ERG is updated every three to four years to accommodate new products and technology.
https://www.airseacontainers.com/em...IVBQWRCh1k8ghKEAQYBCABEgJJL_D_BwE#page=page-1
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
Morgan Stanley is distancing themselves a bit.
I've never understood why anyone would take investment bankers conflicted opinions on equity values seriously.

IMO, a far better as a predictor of future stock price, is the willingness of insiders (senior executives) to walk away from their stock options...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ha8TqiBQhek

Is the Tesla executive exodus hitting Ludicrous mode?

As it struggles to ramp up production of its make-or-break mass-market electric car, Tesla has launched a companywide reorganization that will flatten its management structure, CEO Elon Musk told employees Monday.

A stream of top managers has left the Palo Alto automaker in recent months or stepped aside from their duties. This includes, most recently, a key safety executive, who departed for a rival company even as a federal investigation continues into the fatal crash of a Tesla using self-steering Autopilot software on Highway 101 this spring. (In another crash last week in Utah, a Tesla smashed into a stopped fire truck at about 60 mph; the driver said she was using Autopilot mode and had been looking at her phone, according to the Associated Press.)

In his brief email to employees Monday, Musk did not address the executive departures, which also include top managers of engineering, finance and Autopilot. Instead, he emphasized that Tesla would continue to add staff connected to production of the Model 3, the $35,000 sedan considered the linchpin of Tesla’s plans. Tesla employed 37,543 people worldwide at the start of the year, and the company has been hiring at its Fremont auto factory.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Tesla-s-top-executive-ranks-are-shrinking-12913760.php
 
GRA said:
Via ABG:
A list of Tesla car fires since 2013
Fatal Florida crash is the latest
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/05/11/a-list-of-tesla-car-fires-since-2013/

While Tesla's NCA batteries are more likely to overheat and catch fire than other Li-ion chemistries, I don't see this as a major problem for them (yet)...unless they can show that they are more dangerous than gasoline I think they'll have a tough time winning the case. Unlike, say, A/P-caused accidents.
No details (yet) but this sounds like it could be another autopilot driven/crash/fire/ fatality for an unidentified Tesla model.

Photo at link is brutal...

Tesla crash may have triggered battery fire, say Swiss firefighters

A 48-year-German driver died on Thursday when his car hit the barrier in the central reservation of a motorway in the southern canton of Ticino, turned over and burst into flames.

The crash is one of several accidentsexternal link to affect Tesla vehicles in recent days.

“The violent impact of Lithium-ion batteries could probably have caused a phenomenon called ‘thermal runaway’, i.e. a rapid and unstoppable increase in temperature,” Ticino fire brigade said...
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/05/14/tesla-crash-fire-switzerland/
 
Here's another moat around Tesla, extreme leftists:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/16/george-soros-fund-bought-35-million-of-tesla-bonds.html
If and when the going gets rough I'm convinced there will be no shortage of friendlies to lend a hand. It might not exactly be self determination but they won't be dissolving. Actually the changes it would bring about would probably be what sets the stage for the "real" meteoric rise.
I wonder if this is one of those "short the stock buy the bonds" situations.
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
Here's another moat around Tesla, extreme leftists:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/16/george-soros-fund-bought-35-million-of-tesla-bonds.html

Hey, lighten up, especially on MNL.
 
A moat full of candy. Sounds like a good idea. haha.

https://www.inc.com/charles-morris/elon-musk-threatens-to-build-a-moat-filled-with-candy-to-keep-warren-buffett-at-bay.html
 
Usually moat would refer to a barrier to entry or choke point that provides an advantage or protection from competitors, but in this context I was thinking of protection from creditors, or a barrier to exit. Can Soros provide that?

Then there's always that adage that when you borrow $1000 from the bank they own you, but when you borrow $1M you own the bank. (need to multiply those by 1000 to keep up with the times)
 
GRA said:
LTLFTcomposite said:
^ It could just be that they are burning out and have other opportunities that are equally lucrative.
Entirely possible. Tesla has always had high turnover in the executive ranks. It's not for anyone who insists on having a life.
TSLA, of course, uses nondisclosure agreements to prevent open discussion by present and former employeees of what is really happening.

So you need to judge for yourself if the comments below ring true:

Let me start by saying I'm on my way out, along with so many others soon to come...

Before Model 3 ramp it was basically my dream job. Then Elon decided to bet the company on Model 3.

Not only were impossible timelines forced upon us, but so were manufacturing mandates that were thought up by someone with a clear lack of manufacturing background. Elon's ego is too big to realize the mistakes he's making when he's making them. He hires the best and brightest, but then undermines the decisions they make...

So here we are, a year into Model 3 ramp. Admittedly we've come an incredibly long way in the time we were given. Something most companies would never be able to accomplish. Problem is, it's nowhere close to what Elon made us promise. It has also been at the expense of hundreds of employees who have had to work 16+ hours a day, 7 days a week for the last year. Most of us not even doing it at home since a majority of this ramp took place in Reno and we were forced to travel.

Elon still isn't happy. He routinely insults (literally, insults) the competency and dedication of those of us who have sacrificed so much. He faults and fires those who are closest to the chaos even though they have their hands forced in the decisions they make. Think Elon's design mandate is a bad idea? You can tell him but you'll probably get fired for "not being a believer". Fail to execute on Elon's bad ideas? You're clearly at fault and deserve to be fired. That's what we're all dealing with. Most of the lines and machines you've heard about in the press releases have been a direct result of poor decisions that Elon has made. Yet here we are taking the blame and trying to clean up the mess, while Elon gets to tout to the public the "ridiculous things he sees on the lines that are obvious problems" as though he's the saving grace of manufacturing.

To say he creates a toxic workplace is an understatement. He runs the company as a dictatorship, through a pure culture of fear. Even VPs and other C level execs don't stand up to him for fear of their jobs...
http://archive.is/8KDgT
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
Usually moat would refer to a barrier to entry or choke point that provides an advantage or protection from competitors, but in this context I was thinking of protection from creditors, or a barrier to exit. Can Soros provide that?

Then there's always that adage that when you borrow $1000 from the bank they own you, but when you borrow $1M you own the bank. (need to multiply those by 1000 to keep up with the times)

Yeah, I think something along these lines. I generally stay out of discussing Tesla - it's too much like politics and religion, but I don't see how they make it without raising capital. Maybe perfect execution gets them there, but that's a lot to count on. And they've been anything but perfect so far.

But you are correct - Musk has a lot of friends and there is a lot of vested interest in Tesla's success regardless of the fundamentals.
 
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