WetEV wrote:cwerdna wrote:Somone at TCF made a note that (at the top of) https://www.tesla.com/model3 are supposed wait times (month ranges) if you reserve now for various configs (e.g. long range battery and RWD vs. say standard battery)
"Standard range 6-12 months." With 400,000 preorders and 5k per week that is 80 weeks of production. Sure, some cancellations, but I don't see how there is much chance of a new order being delivered in 6 months for the standard range. Even 12 months seems unlikely.
The 450k preorders are global (with model S & X sales as a proxy, only 150-180k are US pre-orders). Shipments of the model 3 outside the US are not scheduled until next year. So all the estimates are for US orders only. With the sunsetting of the federal tax credit, US orders will be prioritized over international ones. The LR RWD variant demand is being filled now, LR AWD will be filled in July when 5000/wk production is reached, giving them the capacity to build 125k more model 3's until the end of the year.
So there's some buffer in those numbers, since they don't know what the actual take rate will be between LR AWD and SR RWD orders will be. There's nothing nefarious about Tesla's estimates.