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SageBrush said:
I ordered my Model 3 two weeks ago;
VIN supplied yesterday;
Car pickup 8 days from today.

Congratulations!!
My wife is due to pick hers up next Monday! Happy times all around :)
 
lpickup on May 2 said:
RegGuheert said:
Assuming the shutdown was only one week (was it?),
Not sure...I think it was a little bit less...April 18-22 maybe?)
RegGuheert said:
it seems that May sales of the Model 3 CANNOT come in under 6,000 units. If they do, then I think there is some serious disconnect between Elon's production numbers and the reality.
I think I would agree with that. Let's do our own estimating.
We have the 2250 vehicles from the 2nd week of April. Let's aim low for 3rd week of April, say 500 vehicles. 4th week of April and first week of May (this week) should each be 2000+. Now there is another shutdown scheduled for May, but unless it's this week, even I don't believe it will significantly impact May numbers. So right there we are at at least 6750. If they don't meet that number, then I agree there is something going on. And that's a conservative estimate. I would hope that they would be getting closer to 3K/week right now, and that moves the number up to 8750.

And that something could be two things:

1) Deliveries to the Canadians that were invited at the end of March should probably occur sometime in May. That will lower the numbers. It should not impact the 6750 deliveries per se, but since InsideEVs tracks US sales only, their reported number would be lower (I don't know if there is a similar estimate of monthly global Tesla sales anywhere).

2) If Tesla decides that they could defer delivering #200K until July, they may attempt to stockpile Model 3's for quick sale in 3Q. I would prefer that they ship to Canada instead of taking such a measure.
O.K. InsideEVs puts the May deliveries at 6250, which barely exceeds my 6000 number, but it is 500 shy of lpickup's number of 6750, so "there is something going on". So is that something Canadian deliveries? (Sorry if this has already been answered, as I have not been following...)
 
EVDRIVER said:
SageBrush said:
I ordered my Model 3 two weeks ago;
VIN supplied yesterday;
Car pickup 8 days from today.

RWD?
Yes ;-)

I decided to skip the AWD and be smart (and some $5k richer) by not being lazy and swapping in winter tyres each season.
Tesla cars have a reputation of very good traction in RWD by itself, so I figure that with good winter tyres will be superior to a regular car with AWD. I don't drive in heavy snow or up mountains; I just want a car that stays its path on roads that can be slippery from snow or ice.
 
lpickup said:
edatoakrun said:
...I wouldn't suggest you publicize any stockpile-model-3s-to-milk-the-federal-subsidy-strategy by TSLA....
...It's not my job to publicize or not. I am painting a picture of how it could be done.

...it's not "gaming" the system by deferring the milestone vehicle into early in a quarter...
Whether you admit it is "gaming" or perhaps something worse, I suggest you consider the actions you outline would be extremely stupid, and do TSLA more harm than the additional tax credits would bring in benefits.

You are suggesting that, a few days after TSLA's cut-out for reporting USA sales releases terrible numbers for June, Musk face the shareholders and report that TSLA really did build lot of cars that month, but to artificially extend the tax credit, it stopped selling vehicles when it it hit (exactly?) 199,999 USA sales.

And, after stuffing as many model 3's as it could in Canada, TSLA still kept ~9,000 model 3s sitting in storage, even as cancellations of model 3 orders have continued to accelerate:

Tesla Faces Accelerating Rate of Model 3 Refunds

...The Model 3 faced a series of production delays, and not all depositors have stuck out the wait. Since reservations began, 23 percent of deposits have been refunded. Only Tesla knows how many additional customers have cancelled reservations and are still awaiting refunds...
https://blog.secondmeasure.com/2018/06/04/tesla-faces-accelerating-rate-of-model-3-refunds/

Could any other action by Musk more dramatically illustrate just how vital the FTC subsidies are to TSLA's continued existence, and what a liar he has been over the years when he has repeatedly said that TSLA doesn't depend on them?

And that's probably not even the largest flaw in your proposal.

Since intentionally delaying sales this quarter (to the degree you suggest) also results a contrived deferment of about half a billion dollars of revenue until the long-promised-to-be-profitable next quarter, shareholders (not to mention the SEC) just might find some reason to object to this bizzare behavior...
 
edatoakrun said:
You are suggesting that, a few days after TSLA's cut-out for reporting USA sales releases terrible numbers for June, Musk face the shareholders and report that TSLA really did build lot of cars that month, but to artificially extend the tax credit, it stopped selling vehicles when it it hit (exactly?) 199,999 USA sales.

And, after stuffing as many model 3's as it could in Canada, TSLA still kept ~9,000 model 3s sitting in storage

Yes, that's exactly what I am suggesting, and he is going to have in his hand a delivery report that states 12,000 (yes, I think even higher than the 9000 you estimate) Teslas are "in transit". Most serious investors will be able to read between the lines and know exactly what Tesla did and realize that it merely shifts revenues by a few weeks from before one arbitrary date on the calendar to after it, and that the actual material impact on the company's financial health is practically nil.

Now I am sure we will be able to count those like you who I am sure will undoubtedly come in and quote some Seeking Alpha report that states that Tesla is mere days away from bankruptcy because they only managed 3500 Model 3 sales in June as not being part of the above group, but that's fine. We know that's what's going to happen and we also know what the real story is, even if those folks have to bury their head even further in the sand to avoid the real story.

BTW, it's not like they are locking all those vehicles in a vault somewhere...they are more likely moving those cars close by to the delivery hubs/centers where they will be able to be sold as quickly as possible throughout the month of July. In some cases for remote east coast delivery centers, this doesn't even represent more than a week or two extra "storage", hardly a major concern.

edatoakrun said:
Could any other action by Musk more dramatically illustrate just how vital the FTC subsidies are to TSLA's continued existence, and what a liar he has been over the years when he has repeatedly said that TSLA doesn't depend on them?

It's not that Tesla depends on the tax credit. The Model 3 will do just fine with or without the credit, which by the way doesn't even apply to a huge number of reservation holders world wide. It's about the competitive position vis a vis other automakers. Nobody, and probably not even Musk, would deny that Tesla is in a better position to compete with the full credit in place.

edatoakrun said:
Since intentionally delaying sales this quarter (to the degree you suggest) also results a contrived deferment of about half a billion dollars of revenue until the long-promised-to-be-profitable next quarter, shareholders (not to mention the SEC) just might find some reason to object to this bizzare behavior...

See my above comment. Smart investors will not put significant weight in an arbitrary calendar date when shown evidence that the sales were merely shifted and will be realized within a month.
 
RegGuheert said:
O.K. InsideEVs puts the May deliveries at 6250, which barely exceeds my 6000 number, but it is 500 shy of lpickup's number of 6750, so "there is something going on". So is that something Canadian deliveries? (Sorry if this has already been answered, as I have not been following...)
My revised estimate for June is that there will be about 10,000 vehicles sold (or in transit) to Canada plus 12,000 vehicles in transit in the US during June. June US sales will look dismal to folks like Ed (likely less than 3500), but adding in Canadian sales it will be well above the stated May figures. Plus the significant number of in transit US vehicles will be quickly unloaded come July 1, setting up for an unprecedented, but not sustainable, July sales figure of probably close to 30,000 if all goes well (which let's be honest, will probably not quite happen--so let's say 25K).
 
Stoaty said:
leafkabob said:
The other thing is that there is no other ev out there, at the $50K price of the model 3, that compares to it. There is absolutely no range anxiety with the 3. This car is a game changer. It is only a matter of time.
Not true. I picked up a 2013 Tesla model S 85 kwh for $43K. It more than compares to the model 3. ;)

Congratulations Stoaty! I thought about getting a used S but aside from the fact that it wouldn't fit in my garage, I really like getting 310 miles on a full charge. ;)
 
Zythryn said:
SageBrush said:
I ordered my Model 3 two weeks ago;
VIN supplied yesterday;
Car pickup 8 days from today.

Congratulations!!
My wife is due to pick hers up next Monday! Happy times all around :)
Thanks :)
I feel almost overwhelmed by excitement. Lucky I have have work to pass the time or I would be a basket case.
I presumed delivery in July given the Canadian deliveries, so now my self imposed patience is in tatters.

Nice to hear your wife's car is on its way; I can just imagine the glares during her wait :mrgreen:
 
SageBrush said:
Zythryn said:
SageBrush said:
I ordered my Model 3 two weeks ago;
VIN supplied yesterday;
Car pickup 8 days from today.

Congratulations!!
My wife is due to pick hers up next Monday! Happy times all around :)
Thanks :)
I feel almost overwhelmed by excitement. Lucky I have have work to pass the time or I would be a basket case.
I presumed delivery in July given the Canadian deliveries, so now my self imposed patience is in tatters.

Nice to hear your wife's car is on its way; I can just imagine the glares during her wait :mrgreen:

I have always found the wait after the VIN assignment is the toughest part :shock:
 
Zythryn said:
I have always found the wait after the VIN assignment is the toughest part :shock:

Well then Tesla is making that easier on people by not releasing the VIN until 7 days prior to the delivery, so I guess there is that! :)
 
lpickup said:
...
edatoakrun said:
Could any other action by Musk more dramatically illustrate just how vital the FTC subsidies are to TSLA's continued existence, and what a liar he has been over the years when he has repeatedly said that TSLA doesn't depend on them?

It's not that Tesla depends on the tax credit. The Model 3 will do just fine with or without the credit, which by the way doesn't even apply to a huge number of reservation holders world wide. It's about the competitive position vis a vis other automakers. Nobody, and probably not even Musk, would deny that Tesla is in a better position to compete with the full credit in place.

edatoakrun said:
Since intentionally delaying sales this quarter (to the degree you suggest) also results a contrived deferment of about half a billion dollars of revenue until the long-promised-to-be-profitable next quarter, shareholders (not to mention the SEC) just might find some reason to object to this bizzare behavior...

See my above comment. Smart investors will not put significant weight in an arbitrary calendar date when shown evidence that the sales were merely shifted and will be realized within a month.
At this point, I'm beginning to think you are pulling my leg...

Anyway, if BB is correct in their latest guesses (they have been way off before) of model 3 production rates, there doesn't look to be much effort required (and certainly no need to withhold "9,000" or "12,000" finished cars from customers) for TSLA to fall short of 200 k USA deliveries this quarter:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Not much real news in the article below, but the summary of TSLA production history should make any rational observer skeptical of claims of rapid increases in sustained production rates are imminent, whether this month or next.

Tesla Veterans Reveal Fires, Accidents, and Delays Inside Elon Musk’s Company

Their sleek, powerful electric cars are a taste of the future, but the company struggles when it comes to actually building them.


Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s attacks against “sanctimonious journalists” and “divisive” unions have captured the public’s attention in recent weeks, but Musk has bigger problems on his hands: His automaker has struggled to deliver on the promise of a mass-market fully electric car, the Model 3 sedan.

When Musk delivered the first Model 3s last year, he jokingly warned customers and employees that the firm would be entering “production hell.”

But according to several former Tesla insiders, it’s not a joke.

Cars built by hand, fires that turned a paint sprayer into a flamethrower, rampant quality problems, and a bloated workforce plague the factory, the insiders say. That’s on top of an injury rate that Reveal News reports is higher than the industry average, with shocking examples. These interconnected symptoms of Tesla’s “production hell” raise questions about the company’s entire approach to manufacturing, which diverges significantly from the auto industry’s practices that have been honed over decades.

The sources requested anonymity to speak because of Tesla’s history of trying to catch leakers, including once reportedly leaving a “fingerprint” in memos to find who divulged them to the press.

Throughout its history Tesla has been successful in convincing Wall Street that it is more technology company than auto manufacturer and is worth more than Ford. Its software startup-style culture has produced stunning designs and cutting-edge in-car technologies that delight consumers.

But ultimately Tesla’s business is to make cars—and a lot of them. Tesla said it plans to make as many as 1 million Model 3s per year by the end of the decade. Yet it has already fallen behind its targets for Model 3 production. Stumbling on the Model 3 from practically day one, Tesla’s frantic attempts to meet Musk’s ambitious production targets are exacting a heavy cost on its people, products, and culture...
https://www.thedailybeast.com/tesla-veterans-reveal-fires-accidents-and-delays-inside-elon-musks-company
 
EVDRIVER said:
Over 70MPH usually means just making up that gained time by waiting just as long at an SC, of course unless it's the last leg home. I stopped using trip planners as the car is so accurate, they are good to review general times for very long multi-state trips.
I do the same. The car navigation and energy projection is very reliable now and easy to use. Occasionally use a trip planner to scope out possible trips but not when actually making the trip.
 
Tweet from Tesla today showing U.S. market share of the Model 3 compared to other mid sized luxury cars.

https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1004118655230078977?s=21

De9WxlhUwAAj3Px.jpg
 
SageBrush said:
I ordered my Model 3 two weeks ago;
VIN supplied yesterday;
Car pickup 8 days from today.

Enjoy. I don't suffer range anxiety, but "range envy", yeah that's a thing. :p
 
Zythryn said:
Tweet from Tesla today showing U.S. market share of the Model 3 compared to other mid sized luxury cars.
I suppose this is the clearest statement from Tesla which admits that they have not delivered on the third leg of Elon Musk's master plan:
Elon Musk on August 2 said:
So, in short, the master plan is:

Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
(Bolding in original. Italics are mine.)

The Tesla Model 3 will need to sustain sales in the US on the order of 30,000 units/month in order to compete with the top-selling affordable cars here. To complete with the top-selling vehicle in the U.S. market, which happens to be priced at a similar level to the Model 3, they will need to sell about 80,000 units/month.

And I have to question if the Model 3 is really being manufactured using money that was generated by sales of the Models S and X. In reality, it is being paid for by debt, not cash.
 
Nubo said:
SageBrush said:
I ordered my Model 3 two weeks ago;
VIN supplied yesterday;
Car pickup 8 days from today.

Enjoy. I don't suffer range anxiety, but "range envy", yeah that's a thing. :p
I know exactly what you mean.
As a two car family my LEAF is relegated to the chores it can handle so no anxiety. But the Model 3 will go anywhere, without any fuss.

My first drive is from Denver to home, about a 350 mile trip. I'm going to stop for a 15 minute charge en-route about halfway home for a break and some range insurance. That's it -- end of fueling story. And it is actually overstated, since I just want to try out the SuperCharger. We are staying in Gunnison overnight for some early AM hiking in the canyon before heading home. There is an EVSE across the street from the hotel I can use for free if I preferred. No other charging stops would be needed and I would arrive home with about 200 miles of range.

Of course, as an EV tripping newbie I asked myself what if I skipped the Supercharger AND the Gunnison site was down ? No problem, Telluride has an 80 Amp L2 EVSE I can draw 48 Amps from. That would add about an hour to my journey (easily soaked up by some food and an enjoyable and free gondola ride) and I consider it less likely than a flat tyre.
 
Zythryn said:
Tweet from Tesla today showing U.S. market share of the Model 3 compared to other mid sized luxury cars.

https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1004118655230078977?s=21
Aside: My browser/extentions are supressing your pbs.twimg image.

It seems all the manufacturers are fairly steady except BMW. Them and Tesla are going opposite directions. There must be an explanation. Are there really that many BMW drivers changing their alliance?

Jks27iv.jpg
 
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