GRA
Posts: 9405
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

GCC: Study of 5-year TCO suggests ongoing challenge to unsubsidized BEV cost-competitiveness

Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:46 pm

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/07/20180709-breetz.html

A team at Arizona State University has analyzed the five-year Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) for representative electric, hybrid, and conventional vehicles—the Nissan Leaf (BEV), Toyota Prius (HEV), and Toyota Corolla (ICEV)—in 14 US cities from 2011 to 2015.

The results, reported in a paper in the journal Energy Policy, show spatial variation due to differences in state and local policies, fuel prices, insurance and maintenance costs, depreciation rates, and vehicle miles traveled. Despite those differences, in nearly all cities, the BEV’s higher purchase price and rapid depreciation outweighed its fuel savings.

Sensitivity analyses highlighted the impact of key parameters and showed that both federal and state incentives were necessary for BEVs to be cost-competitive. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 493
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: GCC: Study of 5-year TCO suggests ongoing challenge to unsubsidized BEV cost-competitiveness

Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:45 pm

GRA wrote:http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/07/20180709-breetz.html

A team at Arizona State University has analyzed the five-year Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) for representative electric, hybrid, and conventional vehicles—the Nissan Leaf (BEV), Toyota Prius (HEV), and Toyota Corolla (ICEV)—in 14 US cities from 2011 to 2015.

The results, reported in a paper in the journal Energy Policy, show spatial variation due to differences in state and local policies, fuel prices, insurance and maintenance costs, depreciation rates, and vehicle miles traveled. Despite those differences, in nearly all cities, the BEV’s higher purchase price and rapid depreciation outweighed its fuel savings.

Sensitivity analyses highlighted the impact of key parameters and showed that both federal and state incentives were necessary for BEVs to be cost-competitive. . . .


As some of the commentors have posted, that study was flawed. Notice that the maintenance on the leaf was exactly the same as that of the prius and corolla and came out to about $3000 over 5 years?
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
Date - Miles / GIDs:
May '17 - 7300 mi / 363
Feb '18 - 20.5k mi / 333

SageBrush
Posts: 2848
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: GCC: Study of 5-year TCO suggests ongoing challenge to unsubsidized BEV cost-competitiveness

Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:04 pm

^^ I presume they used the manufacturer recommended maintenance and typical dealer costs. When I owned Prius vehicles I maintained them very well outside the dealership and ended up paying about 0.5 cents a mile; that is, WAY less than the costs presumed in this study. So both cars can be cheap to maintain or expensive, but it makes sense to use the same rules for comparison.

So I don't fault the study for that reason, and I mostly agree with their somewhat softly said conclusion: EVs are cost competitive when paired with inexpensive PV. That said, 95% of the cars sold in the US today are not "cost competitive" with the Toyota Corolla or Prius so clearly no one would buy any of those cars without subsidy.

Oh, wait. Never mind.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
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2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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