Official Tesla Model 3 thread

evnow said:

Joe6pack said:

Can we stop pretending that even if Tesla shows a "profit" on paper that they are actually profitable. What profitable company has to have "volunteers" help deliver product because they haven't invested in the resources to actually get their product to market.

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Well, if volunteers would help in delivery, every automaker will take it. As is they have to employ 30,000+ people and pay them a lot of money to deliver cars.

In 2010, Carlos Ghosn said they will make 150k EVs a year. That hasn't happened yet.

So, if you care about EVs, you should be very happy Tesla is actually selling some 300k EVs a year now.

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LOL!!!

no, no they wouldn't. Since they can't, they don't. End of story.

DaveinOlyWA said:

evnow said:

Joe6pack said:

Can we stop pretending that even if Tesla shows a "profit" on paper that they are actually profitable. What profitable company has to have "volunteers" help deliver product because they haven't invested in the resources to actually get their product to market.

Click to expand...

Well, if volunteers would help in delivery, every automaker will take it. As is they have to employ 30,000+ people and pay them a lot of money to deliver cars.

In 2010, Carlos Ghosn said they will make 150k EVs a year. That hasn't happened yet.

So, if you care about EVs, you should be very happy Tesla is actually selling some 300k EVs a year now.

Click to expand...

LOL!!!

no, no they wouldn't. Since they can't, they don't. End of story.

Click to expand...

I would gladly volunteer to deliver cars for Porsche and I am pretty sure they would tell me to go to hell.

lorenfb said:

nonot

GRA said:

lorenfb said:

Really? And how are you able conclude that? Are you aware that he owns about 40% of Tesla and because of that he'll have
a significant overall influence who is the new chairman/policies and who gets elected to the board, if it's changed at all.

Bottom Line: Elon Musk just lost the title of chairman, .1% of his wealth, and the shareholders lost less than .05% of their wealth.
Most likely more shareholder wealth will have been lost when the Q3 report arrives. Remember, Tesla gave away about $18K
of shareholder wealth with each vehicle sold in Q2. Obviously in Q3, given the M3 volume, it won't be as great, e.g. less than $1K - $2K
per vehicle sold.

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Sure the fine was a small portion of his wealth (BTW, he owns about 20% of Tesla, not 40%) but the terms of the settlement included:

Musk will step down as Tesla’s Chairman and be replaced by an independent Chairman. Musk will be ineligible to be re-elected Chairman for three years;

Tesla will appoint a total of two new independent directors to its board;

Tesla will establish a new committee of independent directors and put in place additional controls and procedures to oversee Musk’s communications

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I consider it unrealistic to expect the SEC to allow Elon to go on as before with just a slap on the wrist, so I fully expect them to monitor future corporate communications closely.

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So it's you that feels it's unrealistic, right? Have you seen specific/enumerated SEC guidelines for Musk, other than what
you've stated? With regard to a new chairman, Musk still has significant influence over that decision and significant influence
over the new chairman's decisions. Besides, the SEC has no control over who the next chairman is. As still CEO, Musk has the all
authority to fully run Tesla based on his strategy and views. So what if Musk no longer communicates about financial decisions
and pro-forma data, he still can communicate, e.g. tweet, about basically everything else about Tesla. The SEC has no control over
what he tweets about his strategy/goals for Tesla as a CEO. Yes Musk has an ego, but it's doubtful that the SEC's ruling has affected
that much and will not significantly curb his modus operandi, i.e. he'll have plenty of wiggle room.

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Well, so much for my previous view, i.e. now he's tweeting stupid comments about the SEC. The guy is a joke & HOPELESS!
We in SoCal had a few state facilities for guys like Musk, until they were closed down during the Reagan administration.

Musk sent the tweet referring to the "Shortseller Enrichment Commission" hours after the judge handling his settlement agreement with the SEC ordered both parties to explain why the court should approve it.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/tesla-shares-drop-nearly-5percent-after-musk-mocks-sec-on-twitter.html

Wow, so much misinformation.

@ Joe6pack - Tesla owners aren't really helping deliver the cars, they're helping inform the new owners and engaging them while the staff is taking care of the actual delivery process: https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/9i8xrt/my_experience_volunteering_to_help_with_deliveries/

If a porsche dealer ever got so busy that their staff was overwhelmed, and they were offered volunteer help, I think they wouldn't mind current owners engaging new owners while their staff gets their cars ready.

@ lorenfb - The $50k Tesla is taken sales away from more than BMW / Audi / MB. People are trading in their $25k+ vehicles (civic, accord, prius) for a $50k one: https://www.autoblog.com/2018/08/02/tesla-model-3-top-5-trade-ins/

For the high mileage drivers, it's simple math. With gas at $4/gal (and rising), after 5 years (18k miles per year), a $50k Tesla costs the same as a $30k accord.

As for Elon Musk's tweets. Yeah, those were inexcusable. But as a shareholder, given a choice between an erratic and brilliant CEO or a calm and rational one, I might have to flip a coin. There's no doubting the results of the company, and that's what an investment should be made on. Unless there's another company with a more sane CEO who also carries the mission to transition us to a sustainable energy future, I don't really have a choice on where to put my money.

Oils4AsphaultOnly said:

If a porsche dealer ever got so busy that their staff was overwhelmed, and they were offered volunteer help, I think they wouldn't mind current owners engaging new owners while their staff gets their cars ready.

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You're joking, right?

Oils4AsphaultOnly said:

@ lorenfb - The $50k Tesla is taken sales away from more than BMW / Audi / MB. People are trading in their $25k+ vehicles (civic, accord, prius) for a $50k one: https://www.autoblog.com/2018/08/02/tesla-model-3-top-5-trade-ins/

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So what! That's a very small percentage of Tesla's delivery backlog, i.e. trade-ins.

Oils4AsphaultOnly said:

For the high mileage drivers, it's simple math. With gas at $4/gal (and rising), after 5 years (18k miles per year), a $50k Tesla costs the same as a $30k accord.

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Really? That's why ICEV sales are down significantly versus a huge increase in BEV sales, right? NOT! The consumer ALWAYS makes a purchase
based on only operating cost, right? Hopefully, you're not involved in automotive strategic marketing!

Oils4AsphaultOnly said:

As for Elon Musk's tweets. Yeah, those were inexcusable. But as a shareholder, given a choice between an erratic and brilliant CEO or a calm and rational one, I might have to flip a coin. There's no doubting the results of the company, and that's what an investment should be made on. Unless there's another company with a more sane CEO who also carries the mission to transition us to a sustainable energy future, I don't really have a choice on where to put my money.

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So you bought Tesla yesterday on the big down move, right? Elon Musk, another Steve Jobs or really a mental case of John Sculley?

Tesla should be settling into a rate of 30,000 sales a month through the end of the year.
Nice job; I look forward to double that by 2020.

SageBrush said:

Tesla should be settling into a rate of 30,000 sales a month through the end of the year.
Nice job; I look forward to double that by 2020.

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And that new production is located where?

I'm surprised you haven't answered the question. You usually respond. Could be that there's NO possible way that Tesla can increase
the production capacity needed to achieve that level by year end?

Oils4AsphaultOnly said:

For the high mileage drivers, it's simple math. With gas at $4/gal (and rising), after 5 years (18k miles per year), a $50k Tesla costs the same as a $30k accord.

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Exactly. Or better.

Non-hybrid ICE drivers pay 10 - 15 cents a mile. EV drivers with PV can pay as little as 0.5 cents a mile (like me.)
A Tesla will last a *long* time, making the money argument very persuasive even before considering the fantastic merits of the car itself.

For me, the arithmetic worked out this way:
51k Tesla before TTL
(10k) old car value
(14.4k) value of a 6 year newer car (based on $200 a month)
(10k) Tax Credits
(10k) Fuel savings over 200k miles @ 5 cents a mile (hybrid Vs EV fueled by my PV.)
-----
$6.6k upgrade cost

Trades are almost always less advantageous than replacing an end-of-life car. Anyone buying a new ICE today should review their arithmetic.

lorenfb said:

SageBrush said:

Tesla should be settling into a rate of 30,000 sales a month through the end of the year.
Nice job; I look forward to double that by 2020.

Click to expand...

And that new production is located where?

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It will never work until it does but you seem to be proven wrong repeatedly. All of your predictions have been wrong and your technical speculation about the car has also be wrong repeatedly. I suppose you still have yet drive one ever, or is that "confidential"?

lorenfb said:

Oils4AsphaultOnly said:

@ lorenfb - The $50k Tesla is taken sales away from more than BMW / Audi / MB. People are trading in their $25k+ vehicles (civic, accord, prius) for a $50k one: https://www.autoblog.com/2018/08/02/tesla-model-3-top-5-trade-ins/

Click to expand...

So what! That's a very small percentage of Tesla's delivery backlog, i.e. trade-ins.

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It's an indication of what is happening across the board Loren...or are you claiming that 100% of the people whose former vehicles were Civics, Accord and Priuses chose to trade in to Tesla and none of them decided to sell privately?

lorenfb has an axe to grind. He has lost perspective.

Oils4AsphaultOnly said:

Wow, so much misinformation.

@ Joe6pack - Tesla owners aren't really helping deliver the cars, they're helping inform the new owners and engaging them while the staff is taking care of the actual delivery process: https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/9i8xrt/my_experience_volunteering_to_help_with_deliveries/

If a porsche dealer ever got so busy that their staff was overwhelmed, and they were offered volunteer help, I think they wouldn't mind current owners engaging new owners while their staff gets their cars ready.

Click to expand...

Not true. No way they let someone not trained in the product near a prospective customer as a matter of practice. I can say this as a Porsche owner and PCA member since 2009. Tesla on the other hand = amateur hour. But believe what you want to believe. Kool-aid drinkers always do.

Bottom line, Tesla is headed for a very hard fall. They are neither profitable nor cash flow positive. And that's after basically freezing Capex and pulling out all of the stops for September. It's all downhill from here. Tesla will not be able to repeat September. The demand just isn't there.

Elon stepping down (or being forcibly removed) and a capital raise along with competent leadership might save them.

This is the reality that you bagholders don't want to see.

lorenfb said:

Oils4AsphaultOnly said:

If a porsche dealer ever got so busy that their staff was overwhelmed, and they were offered volunteer help, I think they wouldn't mind current owners engaging new owners while their staff gets their cars ready.

Click to expand...

You're joking, right?

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no, i'm not. i had an open invitation by my local nissan dealership to help share my experience as an owner with prospective buyers. when the dealership is motivated, a sale is a sale, regardless of how they get help (as long as i don't get compensation to avoid issues with state bird-dog laws).

lorenfb said:

Oils4AsphaultOnly said:

@ lorenfb - The $50k Tesla is taken sales away from more than BMW / Audi / MB. People are trading in their $25k+ vehicles (civic, accord, prius) for a $50k one: https://www.autoblog.com/2018/08/02/tesla-model-3-top-5-trade-ins/

Click to expand...

So what! That's a very small percentage of Tesla's delivery backlog, i.e. trade-ins.

Click to expand...

it's relevant as an indicator of where the buyer is coming from, and the type of cars they've bought before.

lorenfb said:

Oils4AsphaultOnly said:

For the high mileage drivers, it's simple math. With gas at $4/gal (and rising), after 5 years (18k miles per year), a $50k Tesla costs the same as a $30k accord.

Click to expand...

Really? That's why ICEV sales are down significantly versus a huge increase in BEV sales, right? NOT! The consumer ALWAYS makes a purchase
based on only operating cost, right? Hopefully, you're not involved in automotive strategic marketing!

Click to expand...

non-sequitor, so no comment.

lorenfb said:

Oils4AsphaultOnly said:

As for Elon Musk's tweets. Yeah, those were inexcusable. But as a shareholder, given a choice between an erratic and brilliant CEO or a calm and rational one, I might have to flip a coin. There's no doubting the results of the company, and that's what an investment should be made on. Unless there's another company with a more sane CEO who also carries the mission to transition us to a sustainable energy future, I don't really have a choice on where to put my money.

Click to expand...

So you bought Tesla yesterday on the big down move, right? Elon Musk, another Steve Jobs or really a mental case of John Sculley?

Click to expand...

nope, i'm out of excess cash. i bought at 340, when the go-private plans were announced, so i'm suffering. but i also had bought some during the solar city brouhaha, so i'm still net positive. As i said, it's a tough path as a TSLA investor, but they're the only company on this mission.

besides, i see light at the end of the tunnel, as q3 is looking to be the first of many profitable quarters: https://mobile.twitter.com/gerberkawasaki/status/1030474443749875712

Joe6pack said:

Oils4AsphaultOnly said:

Wow, so much misinformation.

@ Joe6pack - Tesla owners aren't really helping deliver the cars, they're helping inform the new owners and engaging them while the staff is taking care of the actual delivery process: https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/9i8xrt/my_experience_volunteering_to_help_with_deliveries/

If a porsche dealer ever got so busy that their staff was overwhelmed, and they were offered volunteer help, I think they wouldn't mind current owners engaging new owners while their staff gets their cars ready.

Click to expand...

Not true. No way they let someone not trained in the product near a prospective customer as a matter of practice. I can say this as a Porsche owner and PCA member since 2009. Tesla on the other hand = amateur hour. But believe what you want to believe. Kool-aid drinkers always do.

Bottom line, Tesla is headed for a very hard fall. They are neither profitable nor cash flow positive. And that's after basically freezing Capex and pulling out all of the stops for September. It's all downhill from here. Tesla will not be able to repeat September. The demand just isn't there.

Elon stepping down (or being forcibly removed) and a capital raise along with competent leadership might save them.

This is the reality that you bagholders don't want to see.

Click to expand...

says the guy who doesn't know more about the car than the salesmen!

i'm sure porsche tries really hard to make sure their sales staff are fully educated, but go to any audi or VW dealership, and you'll see how uninformed some of them REALLY are. oh, and don't put down a deposit for a 911 GT3, you might not get it back: http://www.thedrive.com/news/23576/a-vp-at-the-largest-porsche-dealer-in-america-just-vanished-with-2-5-million-in-buyer-deposits

my point is that owners can be a valuable asset. don't trivialize them with your own misconceptions.

Here you go bagholders. Get out while you can. A dilutive capital raise has to happen. Why continue to take this risk? Because you believe in the mission? You can believe in the mission without leaving yourself in the poorhouse.

Trust me, your pittance isn't going to make a difference in this fiasco.

Check out @CGasparino’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1048651158464679936?s=09

Oils4AsphaultOnly said:

Joe6pack said:

Oils4AsphaultOnly said:

Wow, so much misinformation.

@ Joe6pack - Tesla owners aren't really helping deliver the cars, they're helping inform the new owners and engaging them while the staff is taking care of the actual delivery process: https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/9i8xrt/my_experience_volunteering_to_help_with_deliveries/

If a porsche dealer ever got so busy that their staff was overwhelmed, and they were offered volunteer help, I think they wouldn't mind current owners engaging new owners while their staff gets their cars ready.

Click to expand...

Not true. No way they let someone not trained in the product near a prospective customer as a matter of practice. I can say this as a Porsche owner and PCA member since 2009. Tesla on the other hand = amateur hour. But believe what you want to believe. Kool-aid drinkers always do.

Bottom line, Tesla is headed for a very hard fall. They are neither profitable nor cash flow positive. And that's after basically freezing Capex and pulling out all of the stops for September. It's all downhill from here. Tesla will not be able to repeat September. The demand just isn't there.

Elon stepping down (or being forcibly removed) and a capital raise along with competent leadership might save them.

This is the reality that you bagholders don't want to see.

Click to expand...

says the guy who doesn't know more about the car than the salesmen!

i'm sure porsche tries really hard to make sure their sales staff are fully educated, but go to any audi or VW dealership, and you'll see how uninformed some of them REALLY are. oh, and don't put down a deposit for a 911 GT3, you might not get it back: http://www.thedrive.com/news/23576/a-vp-at-the-largest-porsche-dealer-in-america-just-vanished-with-2-5-million-in-buyer-deposits

my point is that owners can be a valuable asset. don't trivialize them with your own misconceptions.

Click to expand...

See you at the bottom.

Joe6pack said:

Here you go bagholders. Get out while you can. A dilutive capital raise has to happen. Why continue to take this risk? Because you believe in the mission? You can believe in the mission without leaving yourself in the poorhouse.

Trust me, your pittance isn't going to make a difference in this fiasco.

Check out @CGasparino’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1048651158464679936?s=09

Click to expand...

You're listing to the wrong people. You're drawing the wrong conclusions, because you're getting bad advice.

Oils4AsphaultOnly said:

You're listing to the wrong people. You're drawing the wrong conclusions, because you're getting bad advice.

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Oh, you're right. I should be listening to Elon:

Full Self Driving
Alien drednaught
Battery swapping

And, my personal favorite

Funding Secured!

Joe6pack said:

Oils4AsphaultOnly said:

You're listing to the wrong people. You're drawing the wrong conclusions, because you're getting bad advice.

Click to expand...

Oh, you're right. I should be listening to Elon:

Full Self Driving
Alien drednaught
Battery swapping

And, my personal favorite

Funding Secured!

Click to expand...

No, you should be listening to Ron Barron, Ross Gerber, etc. You know, people who actually made money and have been right about TSLA?

Oh well, you were warned.