Official Tesla Model 3 thread
- Thread starter KJD
- Start date
Help Support My Nissan Leaf Forum:
GRA
Well-known member
Since nothing in these tweets is illegal, it seems more a freedom of speech issue, and thus outside the SEC's purview. Dumb and unnecessary, sure, but not something that requires regulation, unlike making claims about non-existent funding. That's where he really needs to be muzzled, and where he will be (or the SEC won't just give him a relatively small penalty).lorenfb said:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/musks-tweets-are-dangerous-says-former-sec-chair-harvey-pitt.html
Musk must be listening to somebody, whether Mark Cuban https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/mark-cuban-nudged-elon-musk-to-settle-with-sec.html or someone else, as they convinced him to take a worse deal from the SEC one day after he'd rejected a better one, and that's with only two directors on the board who can be considered independent. Musk's tantrum about the SEC just reinforces the need for adult supervision, and outside investors will likely be the ones to force it, assuming Tesla can't make its upcoming debt payments without further help.
lorenfb said:
I'm surprised you haven't answered the question. You usually respond. Could be that there's NO possible way that Tesla can increase
the production capacity needed to achieve that level, i.e. 30K/month, by year end?
Oils4AsphaultOnly
Well-known member
lorenfb said:
"Right, most consumers make rational and totally analytical purchasing decisions. Oh right!"
FTFY.
Again, nice strawman, but not going to bite.
Oils4AsphaultOnly
Well-known member
lorenfb said:
why does he need to address against a fallacy? Are you incapable of doing math?!
30k/month is about 7500/week. Elon's stretch target is 10k/month out of fremont by year end, where they recently were able to burst up to 7k/week (not sustainable yet).
shanghai gigafactory is planned to start production in 2020 with a target of 250k cars or about 5k/week.
why is that so hard to believe?
these aren't met goals, but they are what Tesla is working towards. for the most part, tesla has either met their production goals or have gotten very close.
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Right, dream-on! Been smoking any the stuff Elon uses? Hopefully you've got a sell limit order on TSLA and it gets
executed when the Q3 filing occurs and Tesla takes another 30 - 40 point hit. Just sell Tesla and buy Amazon,
ego decisions and wishful thinking don't yield positive returns in the stock market! Remember, Tesla isn't an Apple
that continue to produce +20% GPs after the initial product intro, i.e. that +$50K M3 backlog is diminishing and
the final test rejects aren't moving from the storage lots. Maybe Tesla can salvage bodies and achieve the 30K monthly
production some of the naïve forecast for the balance of 2018.
Every now and then, one needs to read the M3 thread to have a little more humor in life.
cwerdna
Well-known member
They've missed them left and right.Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
A few examples:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/881757617416056832?lang=en
He got there in the last 7 days of June 2018: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2018/07/02/tesla-model-3-elon-musk/750590002/.
From http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q4-2017-vehicle-production-and-deliveries
But they missed the 2,500/week as well: https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/3/17192312/tesla-goal-model-3-elon-musk.
For Q3, 2017 “We are confident we can produce just over 1,500 vehicles in Q3, and achieve a run rate of 5,000 vehicles per week by the end of 2017..." yet per http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q3-2017-vehicle-deliveries-and-production, they only produced 260 Model 3.
Tesla delivered 29,975 cars in September. Read my earlier post again, I said that I expect Tesla to continue that rate through the end of the year. Your question where that would occur, when it is already a fact, does not deserve a response.lorenfb said:
Doubling that rate by 2020 is a slightly better question. Tesla has to reach the production level of NUUMI (500k per year) + 200k from their tent line to reach that level. That is not even a stretch goal.
Oils4AsphaultOnly
Well-known member
cwerdna said:
i guess my "production goals" qualifier wasn't clear enough. I meant that even if late, they get to the production they've set out for:
- model X is unbuildable: now at 1000/week
- model 3 can't make 5000/wk: they are now
- model s demand won't exceed 20k/yr: they still are selling more than that.
- can't build 30k/month model 3 in existing factory: this was what i was trying to answer.
This is exactly the point that Tesla trolls and skeptics are blind to. Tesla is routinely late, but they make what they say they will make. Unlike e.g. Nissan, where a forward looking production statement is just an aspirational marketing message.Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Tesla owners learn patience;
LEAF owners sign up for deception, e.g. DC charging, battery degradation, and capacity bar manipulation.
And now another perspective and surely all are open minded to another perspective on the real M3 long term demand, right?
And for those with inside info, refute the above. Please, no more wishing what the real long term $50K+ M3 market is.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4210257-massive-layoffs-reorganization-ahead-tesla?dr=1
As I stated upthread, Tesla could possibly reduce the loss per vehicle from about $17K per vehicle in Q2 to about $1K - $2K and
even show a small profit with freebees, i.e. ZEV credits. Can Tesla survive long term just producing 200K - 300K vehicles
per year as a niche player, maybe, but not with Elon. By the beginning of next month, we'll see whether the above proves correct.
And for those with inside info, refute the above. Please, no more wishing what the real long term $50K+ M3 market is.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4210257-massive-layoffs-reorganization-ahead-tesla?dr=1
As I stated upthread, Tesla could possibly reduce the loss per vehicle from about $17K per vehicle in Q2 to about $1K - $2K and
even show a small profit with freebees, i.e. ZEV credits. Can Tesla survive long term just producing 200K - 300K vehicles
per year as a niche player, maybe, but not with Elon. By the beginning of next month, we'll see whether the above proves correct.
EVDRIVER
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 24, 2010
- Messages
- 6,753
SageBrush said:
Loren comes back when there are some crumbs to troll on. Loren can't and won't answer simple questions like "have you ever driven a Tesla?".
My guess is Loren wanted a M3 but the price was not as expected now it's Tesla payback time. Such a tired and unoriginal theme.
Oils4AsphaultOnly
Well-known member
lorenfb said:
if you haven't realized it yet, seeking alpha is a bastion of misinformation. The worst amongst them is Anton Wahlman (case and point was his article about how the Bolt was outselling the model 3 8-to-1)! you have to keep in mind that they're opinion pieces. use them for their source material, but don't take their writer's opinions as gospel.
the model3 LR doesn't have a demand problem, as new orders still have a 4 week delivery timeframe. the reason there's been mostly AWD sales, is because the backlog of AWD reservation holders were just fulfilled this quarter (production just started in june). plus, they're higher profit, so many were pre-built as part of a batch build to take advantage of a quick sale and to optimize profitability.
now that the end of quarter rush is over, deliveries should be more representative of actual demand.
also, with the focus on profitability, there is no need for restructuring nor refinancing of debt. these are merely the claims (amongst years of failed ones) being made by the short-sellers.
As i told joe6pack, you're getting bad info from bad source material.
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
You can assume it's bad data and dismiss it as you've done, or you can refute it rationally, either using your data or his.
The article presents public data and draws a conclusion. If you disagree then, either challenge the data he presents
or rationalize how his data can lead to opposing conclusions. Just because you disagree, let's not obfuscate the facts.
Not only do I read and reference articles about Tesla, but I also obtain my own public automotive market data and
analyze it based on my background to determine my opinion, just as others do on MNL.
Oils4AsphaultOnly
Well-known member
lorenfb said:
reread my post, as i've done just that.
Durandal
Well-known member
Degradation of my 2012 Leaf has been faster than I anticipated, unfortunately (from a financial perspective) but I guess the upside is that it will give me incentive to finally order an SR Model 3 and add Autopilot to it some time early next year. The thing I find so funny about the people who are so adamant that Tesla will fail is they have a vested EMOTIONAL interest in Tesla failing. Either they have a financial gain to be had (either directly, or because they work for a competitor), they're a hater because of brand loyalty to some other brand, or they just hate Tesla due to jealousy. Most anti-Tesla people I've seen in the Twitter world are petrol heads. I can't imagine why anyone who is sincere about preventing climate change and wants clean air/water would try to disparage Tesla.
Anyhow, my thread-jacking 2c...
Anyhow, my thread-jacking 2c...
