The History Channel aired "Modern Marvels: Cartech of the Future" on January 6, 2005. Here is the entire 90-minute episode on YouTube:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZZGpMjJr4A[/youtube]
This documentary spent most of the time discussing the past of automobile design and innovation and about 1/4 of its time extolling the virtues of the fuel of the future: hydrogen.
Here is an interesting quote from Toyota:
Jim Press - Then COO of Toyota North America at 49:40 said:
There's a lot of debate today about what powertrains will emerge tomorrow: internal combustion engines, hybrid-electric, diesel, fuel cells, solar. All of these are great new technologies that are emerging that are making internal combustion engines better.
Did he miss something there? It seems that perhaps Toyota wrote their playbook back at the beginning of this millenium and they are sticking with it. Here is more from Mr. Press:
Jim Press - Then COO of Toyota North America at 1:00:15 said:
The hydrogen cars of tomorrow are not that far away. We've already sold two in the state of California and they're running. They're full SUVs. Have had great experience from them. We're developing the technology to identify what we can do to commercialize it.
Here's what he has to say about their hydrogen refueling stations:
Jim Press - Then COO of Toyota North America at 1:02:15 said:
The fact is our current hydrogen fueling station uses tap water. We use electricity through the water to crack the hydrogen out. The hydrogen is compressed, put into the tank of the car and the car drives. Absolutely no pollution. And the electricity that we use here is all renewable, from either solar power, hydro or wind. The only emission from the car is a little bit of water vapor. If you're really thirsty, you could drink what comes out of the tailpipe.
What's not to love about that? Oh, he didn't mention the very low efficiency of this approach. He also didn't mention that most hydrogen comes from fossil fuels.
But he does hint at where the issues lie:
Jim Press - Then COO of Toyota North America at 1:03:03 said:
Cost has to come down and we need to create a hydrogen infrastructure so people can refuel their hydrogen-powered cars. Those are the two obstacles that are going to take another 15 or 20 years to perfect before they're on the road and common.
Then he makes his predictions:
Jim Press - Then COO of Toyota North America at 1:03:18 said:
Ten years from now, you'll begin to see hydrogen-powered cars here and there.
O.K. There are a handful out there. But I've never seen one. What I do see "here and there" are BEVs. He goes on:
Jim Press - Then COO of Toyota North America at 1:03:22 said:
But 15 to 20 years from now they'll be the norm.
Really, it sounds to me like he is describing exactly what is happening with BEVs, not hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.
Fuel-cell vehicles still have *precisely* the same problems they had when he made his prediction over 10 years ago: They are too expensive and there is no refueling infrastructure in place to support their proliferation. Toyota's predictions were so bad that they had better hope that the governments can ramp up their subsidies in order for Toyota and the oil companies to maintain the status quo. In the meantime, the future of transportation is rapidly changing for the better in the form of BEVs.
So, what did Modern Marvel predict for BEVs?
<crickets>
Literally, BEVs were discussed only as a technology of the far past, but there was not a single mention of BEVs being used in the future.