Zythryn said:
Just how to you define “great leap”?
Some would say the last 8 years have already been a Great Leap Forward.
As I've stated elsewhere, I think when BEVs get to around 15% of total sales
without subsidies or mandates, we'll have reached mass-market acceptance, and sales will take off. On the way to that, 5% and 10% will be significant waypoints. For now (and at any time during the past eight years), except at the luxury end of the market BEVs remain dependent on one or both, and you had/have articles such as
Nissan LEAF Sales Collapse In Ontario
https://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-sales-collapse-in-ontario/
In fact, not only the Nissan LEAF feels the withdrawal of the $14,000 CAD incentive
The latest sales reports from Canada reveals a collapse of electric car sales in Ontario – particularly the popular Nissan LEAF was shown as an example – after the province decided to end the generous incentive of $14,000 CAD through the Electric and Hydrogen Vehicle Incentive Program (EHVIP).
Nissan apparently sold some 695 LEAFs in Ontario in August, but without the support, only 10 were sold during two months – September and November. For comparison, in Quebec (where customers can count on some incentives) sales of LEAF stood at 283 in November. . . .
- “Green rebates still exist elsewhere in Canada, limited to British Columbia and Quebec, which means both provinces are enjoying an influx of EVs. That in turn lowers the amount of time that people in those provinces have to wait for their new cars, now that Ontarians aren’t interested.The Ontario government believes that by ending the Electric and Hydrogen Vehicle Incentive Program, the province will save around $1 billion over four years.”
So, while we've definitely come a fair distance, there's still further to go than we've come. If you believe IEVS, 2020 may be the tipping point year:
2020 Electric Vehicles: The Big Breakthrough Year For EVs
https://insideevs.com/lists/2020-electric-vehicles-new-evs/326439/
but as most of the vehicles listed are priced well above the affordable range, that's not going to do it. Estimates of when BEVs will have comparable price/performance to ICEs mostly cluster around 2025, and whether we'll have to wait until then or we reach 15% a year or two earlier (or later FTM), I'm not going to guess. As it is, I'm encouraged that 2019 will see the introduction of at least three semi-affordable 200+ mile BEVs to compete with the Bolt, and 2020 may see the first semi-affordable 200+ mile compact AWD BECUV, which (I hope) will kick the market past the next inflection point.
While it's a great color for longevity and has a high albedo to keep temps down, I admit I'm kind of tired of it. I like the dark gray (Midnight Silver), but that (or black) are the wrong colors for anyone who places a high priority on limiting battery degradation. White's boring albeit with the same advantages as silver, and I don't much care for Tesla's red, so if I were interested in a Model 3 I'd probably opt for Deep Blue. Actually, I'm sort of surprised that more people don't complain about having to pay $1.5 or $2.5k to get some color other than black. The Model 3's much closer to the opposite end of the price range than the Model T was, and it's not as if most of the available color options are exotic. Maybe it will be seen as more of a problem if they ever produce the SR, where the price increment will be larger.
