Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

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SageBrush said:
By 'not OK' I was talking about cost/range Nissan is charging, not about you at all.

You are welcome to make value judgments on your own about Nissan's performance in this matter. I don't see how that winds up being a factor in my analysis, unless you expect me perhaps to make a decision "on principle" vs the actual economics and practicality of the matter (which I have been known to do from time to time, but I don't need someone else to tell me what principles I should adhere to).

SageBrush said:
I'm not sure why you emphasize Tesla depreciation for the first year or two if you plan to keep longer, but if your assumptions are correct about the depreciation then buy a 2 year old Tesla

If you buy a new car, you lose the money in depreciation no matter how long you keep the car. The longer you keep it, the more you lose. That's just basic economics.

We already bought a six year old Tesla, taking an even bigger discount (more like 50% over new price). And when there are in fact two year old Model 3s available, perhaps we will consider that as well. For now, that's literally just not an option.
 
peted said:
SageBrush said:
By 'not OK' I was talking about cost/range Nissan is charging, not about you at all.

You are welcome to make value judgments on your own about Nissan's performance in this matter.
Not a personal value judgement at all.

$9,000 / 24 kWh = $375 a kWh pack price. Tesla is at somewhere in the range of $125 - $150 / kWh pack price.
 
peted said:
If you buy a new car, you lose the money in depreciation no matter how long you keep the car.
Of course. I was commenting on your arbitrary choice of focusing on the first two years since the depreciation is far from linear.
 
SageBrush said:
peted said:
If you buy a new car, you lose the money in depreciation no matter how long you keep the car.
Of course. I was commenting on your arbitrary choice of focusing on the first two years since the depreciation is far from linear.

I wasn't "focusing" on anything. The two year mark is just an arbitrary point of comparison. It looks even worse the longer you own the car, but since the majority of depreciation happens in those first two years, I didn't see any point in using a different point of reference. Two years is sufficient to illustrate the disparity.
 
peted said:
SageBrush said:
peted said:
If you buy a new car, you lose the money in depreciation no matter how long you keep the car.
Of course. I was commenting on your arbitrary choice of focusing on the first two years since the depreciation is far from linear.

I wasn't "focusing" on anything. The two year mark is just an arbitrary point of comparison. It looks even worse the longer you own the car, but since the majority of depreciation happens in those first two years, I didn't see any point in using a different point of reference. Two years is sufficient to illustrate the disparity.
The point then that you are missing is that depreciation requires the context of time, otherwise we would all just quote the purchase price and ignore how long the item lasts, how long we keep it, or its resale value.

Two items cost 10K
They both depreciate 5k the first year.
One is sold after one year for 5k
The other is sold after 10 years for 1k

The first item cost you $5,000 for a year of use
The second item cost you $900 per year of use.
 
peted said:
Evoforce said:
So as you talk about your circumstances, why waste $9000 on another short term battery? Wouldn't it be best than to sell off or trade it in? Get as much value you can now for Leaf, because of fast depreciation, and get a tax credit on the new purchase of Bolt or Model 3? Last I knew, full tax credit may come back for Tesla. It is sad to be in this position because Leaf is such a good car if not for bad batteries.

"Waste" is a prejudiced way to phrase it. Rest assured, we won't buy the battery if we decide the money would be wasted. If we do decide to buy the battery, then by definition we have established that, at least for us, the money isn't wasted.

The car's a 2013, and even if the battery were in really good shape, it looks to me as though the best price we'd get is around $7-8K (optimistically). With a failing battery, I'd guess we're closer to $5K, give or take.

Regardless, I don't get the logic behind your proposal. I can rule out the Bolt just based on its size. I barely fit in the LEAF, and the Bolt's seats are too narrow for reasonable comfort. The Model 3 fits me better, but it's a $50K car, and purchased new we'd lose tens of thousands of that value in the first year or two. And even if it didn't, that's still roughly six times what we're looking at for a battery price (we'd have to buy the Model 3 in the next month or so to get even the $3750 credit, and there's no guarantee even that will remain, never mind would the $7500 credit be restored).

Given that we already have the Model S (which used, cost us at least $15K less than we'd spend on a new Model 3), we don't actually need another large(ish) sedan.

We're certainly not going to be buying a new battery any time soon. But it's just as certain that it's premature to state unequivocally that doing so would be absolutely the wrong choice, or especially that as an alternative we should be looking to spend six times as much on a brand new car, where we'll lose as much value in the first year or two of ownership as two batteries would cost.

You can now buy an SR new for around $35,000-$3,750 with a 20+ year battery. A couple more years will bring even more choices of brands. Heck, I have seen some older Model S 85 selling in the high 20's. My son owns a Bolt for a year now, both him and his girl are big, seats are no problem for them. We don't know what region of the country you live in and that does make a difference. We are now understanding it appears you may have already made up your mind and are just venting about the cost of Leaf replacement batteries. I know it angered me when my Nissan service manager told me not to buy the Leaf because it was being built as a short lived disposable vehicle. I like to own my vehicles a long time also. I would guess that I currently own more vehicles than most on this forum although my oldest car is only a "65". I'm sure some own older... Good luck!
 
Evoforce said:
You can now buy an SR new for around $35,000-$3,750 with a 20+ year battery. A couple more years will bring even more choices of brands. Heck, I have seen some older Model S 85 selling in the high 20's. My son owns a Bolt for a year now, both him and his girl are big, seats are no problem for them. We don't know what region of the country you live in and that does make a difference.
Peted appears to be in the US (I really wish the location field were mandatory) judging by his gas prices (e.g. $3.50/gal), use of mpg, mentioning Honda Clarity, etc.

Model 3 SR starts at $35K "off-menu" (https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-our-vehicle-lineup) until Tesla decides to yank it. Colors other than black will cost more (see https://www.tesla.com/model3/design for an idea of how much more). Tax credit is still $3750: https://www.tesla.com/support/incentives.

20+ year battery? I doubt it. Judging by Tesla's track record, if one were to keep a Tesla 20 years, I wouldn't be surprised if there's at least 1 pack replacement in there due to some failure in the pack, hopefully within the warranty. Or, if one were to keep one that long, I suspect it will become uneconomical to repair years before that.

However, at least from their past history, as long as the pack doesn't get replaced (for whatever reason, resets the "clock"), it seems their degradation is very minimal compared to Leaf. That coupled w/their long range to begin with + excellent Supercharger network, it needs to become VERY degraded to the point where it becomes not useful/usable for a person's typical use cases.
 
@peted
Regarding the capacity loss mentioned in your first post, and in case you are not aware of the following:
The capacity bars for the 2011 & 2012 model Leafs were not linear. The top bar represented 15% capacity while each of the others represented 6.25%.* I think that this was the same for the 2013 model. Hopefully, your car’s battery capacity is not dropping as fast as you thought.

*I know that doesn’t add up to 100% but that is what the original service manual listed.
 
SageBrush said:
$9,000 / 24 kWh = $375 a kWh pack price. Tesla is at somewhere in the range of $125 - $150 / kWh pack price.

Is this price for Tesla to build or to consumer? How much is a 60 or 100 kWh pack replacement from Tesla?

The powerwall is $5500 + installation and hardware for 14kWh, which is $393/kWh (more than a Leaf pack)
 
Lothsahn said:
SageBrush said:
$9,000 / 24 kWh = $375 a kWh pack price. Tesla is at somewhere in the range of $125 - $150 / kWh pack price.

Is this price for Tesla to build or to consumer? How much is a 60 or 100 kWh pack replacement from Tesla?
That is the price for Tesla to build. This would be an apples to oranges comparison if not for Nissan saying that the retail price is their cost.

Regarding the powerwall -- that device has cooling, electronics, integration and an inverter in addition to the battery. Oh ... and Tesla profit too.
 
91040 said:
@peted
Regarding the capacity loss mentioned in your first post, and in case you are not aware of the following:
The capacity bars for the 2011 & 2012 model Leafs were not linear. The top bar represented 15% capacity while each of the others represented 6.25%.* I think that this was the same for the 2013 model. Hopefully, your car’s battery capacity is not dropping as fast as you thought.

*I know that doesn’t add up to 100% but that is what the original service manual listed.
IIRC the last bar is 15% also

15*2 + 6.25*10
I'm not sure about the missing 7.5%. Perhaps that is the unusable amount to prevent battery bricking.
 
SageBrush said:
Lothsahn said:
SageBrush said:
$9,000 / 24 kWh = $375 a kWh pack price. Tesla is at somewhere in the range of $125 - $150 / kWh pack price.

Is this price for Tesla to build or to consumer? How much is a 60 or 100 kWh pack replacement from Tesla?
That is the price for Tesla to build. This would be an apples to oranges comparison if not for Nissan saying that the retail price is their cost.

Where did Nissan say the $9,000 was their cost? Firstly, you rounded up and included installation and shipping. I recall an article years ago saying that they weren't making money on $5,500 (installed), and prices of battery production have gone down since then.

SageBrush said:
Regarding the powerwall -- that device has cooling, electronics, integration and an inverter in addition to the battery. Oh ... and Tesla profit too.

Yeah, and the battery has a BMS, heater, and other electronics too... and Nissan profit too, I bet. Powerwall, like many announced Tesla products, is almost impossible to get. Tesla is so constrained on cell production that they're not selling many powerwalls. It's all going to cars and utility storage.

Perhaps you would like to consider a RESU10H which doesn't have an inverter? Those can be had immediately for the low low price of $444/kWh.

My original question stands. What does Tesla charge for pack replacements, per kWh? Because the frequently quoted Tesla cell production price is apples to oranges when compared with the Nissan battery retail price.

Btw, the price of a Leaf plus is $589/kWh... including the car. If you assume the car construction and markup is $20k, then the battery cost is $266/kWh.
 
Lothsahn said:
Where did Nissan say the $9,000 was their cost? Firstly, you rounded up and included installation and shipping. I recall an article years ago saying that they weren't making money on $5,500 (installed), and prices of battery production have gone down since then.
We don't know Nissan's cost but yes https://insideevs.com/news/322310/nissan-says-leaf-battery-replacement-program-is-a-money-loser/, states that they were losing $ at $5500. Perhaps they are tired of losing $?

Just because price per kWh over the whole industry has gone down doesn't mean it's gone down or by as much for AESC. Carlos Ghosn did say LG Chem is the "best battery maker" eventually: https://insideevs.com/news/327800/nissan-ceo-best-battery-maker-is-lg-chem-wait-what/ and there was https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2016/12/16/carlos-ghosn-explains-why-making-your-own-batteries-is-dumb/#3d90d0012c73. Nissan finally dumped most of AESC: https://insideevs.com/news/343669/nissan-confirms-sale-of-battery-business-to-envision-group/. Not sure what kind of deal they can score.

As I posted earlier, it seems like the cost to replace the battery with labor seems to be somewhere north of low $7Ks and we're obviously hearing figures as high as $8500+. I'm not a aware of any official Nissan statement on why the price is so high now. There can be any number of reasons (e.g. to cover their (too high) costs, they don't want people to buy it, etc.)

edit: fixed typo
 
Cwerdna found the quote I was going to post.
Isn't the module produced for the 62 kwh pack different than the 24 kWh pack ? That would make a 24 kwh pack a one-off (or thereabouts) custom assembly. If correct, I'm only surprised the price increase was so modest.
 
cwerdna said:
Evoforce said:
You can now buy an SR new for around $35,000-$3,750 with a 20+ year battery. A couple more years will bring even more choices of brands. Heck, I have seen some older Model S 85 selling in the high 20's. My son owns a Bolt for a year now, both him and his girl are big, seats are no problem for them. We don't know what region of the country you live in and that does make a difference.
Peted appears to be in the US (I really wish the location field were mandatory) judging by his gas prices (e.g. $3.50/gal), use of mpg, mentioning Honda Clarity, etc.

Model 3 SR starts at $35K "off-menu" (https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-our-vehicle-lineup) until Tesla decides to yank it. Colors other than black will cost more (see https://www.tesla.com/model3/design for an idea of how much more). Tax credit is still $3750: https://www.tesla.com/support/incentives.

20+ year battery? I doubt it. Judging by Tesla's track record, if one were to keep a Tesla 20 years, I wouldn't be surprised if there's at least 1 pack replacement in there due to some failure in the pack, hopefully within the warranty. Or, if one were to keep one that long, I suspect it will become uneconomical to repair years before that.

However, at least from their past history, as long as the pack doesn't get replaced (for whatever reason, resets the "clock"), it seems their degradation is very minimal compared to Leaf. That coupled w/their long range to begin with + excellent Supercharger network, it needs to become VERY degraded to the point where it becomes not useful/usable for a person's typical use cases.

When Tesla batteries have been replaced, it was not degradation but usually faulty contactors. Even though none have gone 20-25 years to 70%, that is what the numbers are extrapolating out to. You can disagree but the current numbers are not supporting your position. The point is, the battery will last longer than most people would care to own the old steed.

Now the packs are being made with the contactors accessible without tearing apart the whole pack. Tesla also intended for cars to mate the original pack back in after repair. That hasn't always happened but this is inconsequential. The batteries very well may last longer economically than the rest of the car. But if the car is scrapped earlier for its metals, the batteries have value also to be re-purposed.
 
SageBrush said:
Cwerdna found the quote I was going to post.
Isn't the module produced for the 62 kwh pack different than the 24 kWh pack ? That would make a 24 kwh pack a one-off (or thereabouts) custom assembly. If correct, I'm only surprised the price increase was so modest.

Cells for nearly "every" model year are different. The biggest difference is how they are connected in a module, how the module is arranged and the actual size of the cell. On the latter, the difference is quite small, smaller than most would expect. That being said; it is still not a challenge to manufacture various types of cells.

But cells are batch processed very much like microprocessors. So they bake a batch and in a month, they have a finished cell so they are not "one offs"

Now, we all complained about Nissan's "4 to 8 weeks" for exchange comment when getting the battery replacement then read reports where someone people had a new pack in a week. It was simply good timing on their part. Batch done, cells packed, pack built. Other times, you might be the unlucky one and cells are still baking...
 
Evoforce said:
You can now buy an SR new for around $35,000-$3,750 with a 20+ year battery. A couple more years will bring even more choices of brands. Heck, I have seen some older Model S 85 selling in the high 20's. My son owns a Bolt for a year now, both him and his girl are big, seats are no problem for them. We don't know what region of the country you live in and that does make a difference. We are now understanding it appears you may have already made up your mind and are just venting about the cost of Leaf replacement batteries. I know it angered me when my Nissan service manager told me not to buy the Leaf because it was being built as a short lived disposable vehicle. I like to own my vehicles a long time also. I would guess that I currently own more vehicles than most on this forum although my oldest car is only a "65". I'm sure some own older... Good luck!

FYI: I'm in the Seattle area.

An SR doesn't do it. We're cheap, but we also enjoy our luxuries, and if we're buying a brand new car, it's not going to be baseline, or even close to.

And I'd love to see these Model S 85s you're talking about. We did a lot of shopping, and the only 85s we saw in that price range had major deficiencies. An 85 worth buying, even an old, high mileage one, was generally at least $45K, and often higher than that. That's why we were willing to pay $37K for a 60. If I'd been able to find an 85 for sale at that price (never mind $10K lower), I certainly would've bought that instead.

As for the Bolt, I've been in one. I don't really care how big someone else is, or whether the seats are a problem for them or not. I already know whether the seats work for me.

(For the record: "big" is a very imprecise way of describing someone's size. A tall person like me has bone structure that's scaled up all around, including significantly wider hips. A shorter, overweight person may have the same width dimensionally, but that width is made of structure that's a lot more compressible. And indeed, the issue with the Bolt is that I can feel my hip bones squeezed by the side supports of the driver's seat. If I had more built-in padding, maybe it'd be different.)

I haven't made up my mind about anything yet, but I certainly haven't seen that it's a foregone conclusion that there's zero justification for anyone paying the exorbitant cost of a LEAF battery replacement. Even at that price, you are still getting a car that is at least as useful as the car was when brand new, so if that's not a car that's good enough, one probably shouldn't have bought the LEAF in the first place. I know for sure, in our specific case, that is definitely not true. The LEAF has been a fantastically useful car for us, in spite of the current dilemma.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
That being said; it is still not a challenge to manufacture various types of cells.
I have no idea what a "challenge" means in this context but I'll be surprised if a production line is not explicitly designed for ONE specific type of cell, placed into ONE specific type of module.

If AESC (or whatever its new owners have named it) has to change the automation line for a few packs then those packs are going to cost like a one-off. They have no economies of scale. That approach sounds so expensive I am willing to gamble a few dollars it does not happen that way. I think much more likely AESC either takes cells off the production line (or from a stock made years ago if the cell is different) and hand assembles modules that are then hand assembled into a pack. The module assembly happens this way because Nissan agreed in the consent decree to use the latest, best cells they produce for warranty claims. I presume that one day that decree mandate will lapse and then AESC will stock modules.

This also suggests that manufacture date we note on a pack is the final assembly date and does not inform us when the cells were manufactured.
 
peted said:
Evoforce said:
You can now buy an SR new for around $35,000-$3,750 with a 20+ year battery. A couple more years will bring even more choices of brands. Heck, I have seen some older Model S 85 selling in the high 20's. My son owns a Bolt for a year now, both him and his girl are big, seats are no problem for them. We don't know what region of the country you live in and that does make a difference. We are now understanding it appears you may have already made up your mind and are just venting about the cost of Leaf replacement batteries. I know it angered me when my Nissan service manager told me not to buy the Leaf because it was being built as a short lived disposable vehicle. I like to own my vehicles a long time also. I would guess that I currently own more vehicles than most on this forum although my oldest car is only a "65". I'm sure some own older... Good luck!

FYI: I'm in the Seattle area.

An SR doesn't do it. We're cheap, but we also enjoy our luxuries, and if we're buying a brand new car, it's not going to be baseline, or even close to.

And I'd love to see these Model S 85s you're talking about. We did a lot of shopping, and the only 85s we saw in that price range had major deficiencies. An 85 worth buying, even an old, high mileage one, was generally at least $45K, and often higher than that. That's why we were willing to pay $37K for a 60. If I'd been able to find an 85 for sale at that price (never mind $10K lower), I certainly would've bought that instead.

As for the Bolt, I've been in one. I don't really care how big someone else is, or whether the seats are a problem for them or not. I already know whether the seats work for me.

(For the record: "big" is a very imprecise way of describing someone's size. A tall person like me has bone structure that's scaled up all around, including significantly wider hips. A shorter, overweight person may have the same width dimensionally, but that width is made of structure that's a lot more compressible. And indeed, the issue with the Bolt is that I can feel my hip bones squeezed by the side supports of the driver's seat. If I had more built-in padding, maybe it'd be different.)

I haven't made up my mind about anything yet, but I certainly haven't seen that it's a foregone conclusion that there's zero justification for anyone paying the exorbitant cost of a LEAF battery replacement. Even at that price, you are still getting a car that is at least as useful as the car was when brand new, so if that's not a car that's good enough, one probably shouldn't have bought the LEAF in the first place. I know for sure, in our specific case, that is definitely not true. The LEAF has been a fantastically useful car for us, in spite of the current dilemma.

Check out the TMC forum. There have been many older Model S 85, as of late, sold under $30,000. Once you go on that forum you can find many links to info and many forum members selling as well. I have been so tempted to buy one of those but my wife wants a smaller car like the 3 or the Y.

The SR is currently getting most of the interior features of the SR+ including the software limited long range battery that could be unlocked in the future for a fee should you ever need it.

We wish the 3 had a hatch as we have to accommodate a wheelchair. I don't have to share the S because she thinks it's to much for her to handle. If she drove it even once we would be arguing over who gets to drive it! So I don't push my good fortune. :D Luckily she currently has a short drive to work and the Leaf still works for that.

You are in the Seattle area so you have one of the best climates for longevity of your Leaf battery. We also find the Leaf a very comfortable car to drive.
 
peted said:
As for the Bolt, I've been in one. I don't really care how big someone else is, or whether the seats are a problem for them or not. I already know whether the seats work for me.

(For the record: "big" is a very imprecise way of describing someone's size. A tall person like me has bone structure that's scaled up all around, including significantly wider hips. A shorter, overweight person may have the same width dimensionally, but that width is made of structure that's a lot more compressible. And indeed, the issue with the Bolt is that I can feel my hip bones squeezed by the side supports of the driver's seat. If I had more built-in padding, maybe it'd be different.)
Did you try an '18 or '19 Bolt. If you only tried a '17, there were improvements to the seats that began on the '18: https://insideevs.com/news/339196/update-2019-chevy-bolt-may-have-better-seats-improved-suspension/.

That said, I rented a '17 Bolt via Turo (there were none beyond model year '17), was very likely a Premier trim and felt the seats were terrible. I have a '19 Premier and feel that seats are better, but definitely not great. I think there's less bolstering on the bottom cushion now so that wide people aren't hosed. Both the seat back and bottom portions could use more padding and be shaped better. (I'm not a large person.)

Some folks have reported on things they said have improved seat comfort like https://www.amazon.com/dp/B076XXDL38 from https://www.facebook.com/groups/454458678288623/permalink/738617636539391/ (a closed Bolt group).
 
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