peted
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 8:46 pm
Delivery Date: 23 Mar 2013
Leaf Number: 404867
Location: Seattle, WA

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Wed May 08, 2019 8:01 am

SageBrush wrote:By 'not OK' I was talking about cost/range Nissan is charging, not about you at all.


You are welcome to make value judgments on your own about Nissan's performance in this matter. I don't see how that winds up being a factor in my analysis, unless you expect me perhaps to make a decision "on principle" vs the actual economics and practicality of the matter (which I have been known to do from time to time, but I don't need someone else to tell me what principles I should adhere to).

SageBrush wrote:I'm not sure why you emphasize Tesla depreciation for the first year or two if you plan to keep longer, but if your assumptions are correct about the depreciation then buy a 2 year old Tesla


If you buy a new car, you lose the money in depreciation no matter how long you keep the car. The longer you keep it, the more you lose. That's just basic economics.

We already bought a six year old Tesla, taking an even bigger discount (more like 50% over new price). And when there are in fact two year old Model 3s available, perhaps we will consider that as well. For now, that's literally just not an option.

SageBrush
Posts: 4102
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Wed May 08, 2019 8:09 am

peted wrote:
SageBrush wrote:By 'not OK' I was talking about cost/range Nissan is charging, not about you at all.


You are welcome to make value judgments on your own about Nissan's performance in this matter.

Not a personal value judgement at all.

$9,000 / 24 kWh = $375 a kWh pack price. Tesla is at somewhere in the range of $125 - $150 / kWh pack price.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

SageBrush
Posts: 4102
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Wed May 08, 2019 8:10 am

peted wrote:If you buy a new car, you lose the money in depreciation no matter how long you keep the car.

Of course. I was commenting on your arbitrary choice of focusing on the first two years since the depreciation is far from linear.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

peted
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 8:46 pm
Delivery Date: 23 Mar 2013
Leaf Number: 404867
Location: Seattle, WA

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Wed May 08, 2019 8:29 am

SageBrush wrote:
peted wrote:If you buy a new car, you lose the money in depreciation no matter how long you keep the car.

Of course. I was commenting on your arbitrary choice of focusing on the first two years since the depreciation is far from linear.


I wasn't "focusing" on anything. The two year mark is just an arbitrary point of comparison. It looks even worse the longer you own the car, but since the majority of depreciation happens in those first two years, I didn't see any point in using a different point of reference. Two years is sufficient to illustrate the disparity.

SageBrush
Posts: 4102
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Wed May 08, 2019 8:44 am

peted wrote:
SageBrush wrote:
peted wrote:If you buy a new car, you lose the money in depreciation no matter how long you keep the car.

Of course. I was commenting on your arbitrary choice of focusing on the first two years since the depreciation is far from linear.


I wasn't "focusing" on anything. The two year mark is just an arbitrary point of comparison. It looks even worse the longer you own the car, but since the majority of depreciation happens in those first two years, I didn't see any point in using a different point of reference. Two years is sufficient to illustrate the disparity.

The point then that you are missing is that depreciation requires the context of time, otherwise we would all just quote the purchase price and ignore how long the item lasts, how long we keep it, or its resale value.

Two items cost 10K
They both depreciate 5k the first year.
One is sold after one year for 5k
The other is sold after 10 years for 1k

The first item cost you $5,000 for a year of use
The second item cost you $900 per year of use.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

Evoforce
Posts: 882
Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2015 9:58 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Feb 2015
Location: Fountain Hills Arizona

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Wed May 08, 2019 7:38 pm

peted wrote:
Evoforce wrote:So as you talk about your circumstances, why waste $9000 on another short term battery? Wouldn't it be best than to sell off or trade it in? Get as much value you can now for Leaf, because of fast depreciation, and get a tax credit on the new purchase of Bolt or Model 3? Last I knew, full tax credit may come back for Tesla. It is sad to be in this position because Leaf is such a good car if not for bad batteries.


"Waste" is a prejudiced way to phrase it. Rest assured, we won't buy the battery if we decide the money would be wasted. If we do decide to buy the battery, then by definition we have established that, at least for us, the money isn't wasted.

The car's a 2013, and even if the battery were in really good shape, it looks to me as though the best price we'd get is around $7-8K (optimistically). With a failing battery, I'd guess we're closer to $5K, give or take.

Regardless, I don't get the logic behind your proposal. I can rule out the Bolt just based on its size. I barely fit in the LEAF, and the Bolt's seats are too narrow for reasonable comfort. The Model 3 fits me better, but it's a $50K car, and purchased new we'd lose tens of thousands of that value in the first year or two. And even if it didn't, that's still roughly six times what we're looking at for a battery price (we'd have to buy the Model 3 in the next month or so to get even the $3750 credit, and there's no guarantee even that will remain, never mind would the $7500 credit be restored).

Given that we already have the Model S (which used, cost us at least $15K less than we'd spend on a new Model 3), we don't actually need another large(ish) sedan.

We're certainly not going to be buying a new battery any time soon. But it's just as certain that it's premature to state unequivocally that doing so would be absolutely the wrong choice, or especially that as an alternative we should be looking to spend six times as much on a brand new car, where we'll lose as much value in the first year or two of ownership as two batteries would cost.


You can now buy an SR new for around $35,000-$3,750 with a 20+ year battery. A couple more years will bring even more choices of brands. Heck, I have seen some older Model S 85 selling in the high 20's. My son owns a Bolt for a year now, both him and his girl are big, seats are no problem for them. We don't know what region of the country you live in and that does make a difference. We are now understanding it appears you may have already made up your mind and are just venting about the cost of Leaf replacement batteries. I know it angered me when my Nissan service manager told me not to buy the Leaf because it was being built as a short lived disposable vehicle. I like to own my vehicles a long time also. I would guess that I currently own more vehicles than most on this forum although my oldest car is only a "65". I'm sure some own older... Good luck!
*2011 Leaf 1 bought 2/28/15 @ 28,000ish mi 10 bar (8 bars @ 11/25/15 @ 37,453 ) (New lizard @ 39,275 mi @ 1/20/2016) Now 52,166 mi.
*Tesla Model S 61,000 mi
*2011 Leaf 2 bought 4/28/15 @ 24,000ish mi 12 bar (new lizard Dec. 2014 @ 22,273 mi) Now 35,485 mi

cwerdna
Posts: 9281
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Wed May 08, 2019 8:01 pm

Evoforce wrote:You can now buy an SR new for around $35,000-$3,750 with a 20+ year battery. A couple more years will bring even more choices of brands. Heck, I have seen some older Model S 85 selling in the high 20's. My son owns a Bolt for a year now, both him and his girl are big, seats are no problem for them. We don't know what region of the country you live in and that does make a difference.

Peted appears to be in the US (I really wish the location field were mandatory) judging by his gas prices (e.g. $3.50/gal), use of mpg, mentioning Honda Clarity, etc.

Model 3 SR starts at $35K "off-menu" (https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-our-vehicle-lineup) until Tesla decides to yank it. Colors other than black will cost more (see https://www.tesla.com/model3/design for an idea of how much more). Tax credit is still $3750: https://www.tesla.com/support/incentives.

20+ year battery? I doubt it. Judging by Tesla's track record, if one were to keep a Tesla 20 years, I wouldn't be surprised if there's at least 1 pack replacement in there due to some failure in the pack, hopefully within the warranty. Or, if one were to keep one that long, I suspect it will become uneconomical to repair years before that.

However, at least from their past history, as long as the pack doesn't get replaced (for whatever reason, resets the "clock"), it seems their degradation is very minimal compared to Leaf. That coupled w/their long range to begin with + excellent Supercharger network, it needs to become VERY degraded to the point where it becomes not useful/usable for a person's typical use cases.

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

91040
Posts: 1000
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2011 10:36 pm
Delivery Date: 06 May 2011
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Wed May 08, 2019 8:17 pm

@peted
Regarding the capacity loss mentioned in your first post, and in case you are not aware of the following:
The capacity bars for the 2011 & 2012 model Leafs were not linear. The top bar represented 15% capacity while each of the others represented 6.25%.* I think that this was the same for the 2013 model. Hopefully, your car’s battery capacity is not dropping as fast as you thought.

*I know that doesn’t add up to 100% but that is what the original service manual listed.
1st Capacity Bar loss 30k mi 16.25mo
2nd- 49k mi 25.5mo 51.5Ah
3rd- 73k mi 36.5mo 46.9Ah
4th- 86.5k mi 43mo 42.61Ah
5th- 101k mi 50.5mo 38.38Ah, end 36.13Ah
New Battery 9/28/15 104k mi 66.14Ah
1st- 160.5k mi 34mo 54.02Ah

Lothsahn
Posts: 333
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:35 pm
Delivery Date: 04 Jan 2018
Leaf Number: 007797

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Wed May 08, 2019 8:31 pm

SageBrush wrote:
$9,000 / 24 kWh = $375 a kWh pack price. Tesla is at somewhere in the range of $125 - $150 / kWh pack price.


Is this price for Tesla to build or to consumer? How much is a 60 or 100 kWh pack replacement from Tesla?

The powerwall is $5500 + installation and hardware for 14kWh, which is $393/kWh (more than a Leaf pack)
2011 Silver SV, purchased 2018, lives in Missouri (previously in CA)
LeafSpy Pro + BAFX Products OBDII dongle
Battery swap 2019/04/24 (87% SOH, 12 bar)

SageBrush
Posts: 4102
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Wed May 08, 2019 9:50 pm

Lothsahn wrote:
SageBrush wrote:
$9,000 / 24 kWh = $375 a kWh pack price. Tesla is at somewhere in the range of $125 - $150 / kWh pack price.


Is this price for Tesla to build or to consumer? How much is a 60 or 100 kWh pack replacement from Tesla?
That is the price for Tesla to build. This would be an apples to oranges comparison if not for Nissan saying that the retail price is their cost.

Regarding the powerwall -- that device has cooling, electronics, integration and an inverter in addition to the battery. Oh ... and Tesla profit too.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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