2014 Nov Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 2,687 - Total 9,535

[GRA]

Volt sales atrocious again, thanks GM. As soon as good offer comes, I am dumping it for a BMW i3. On the other hand, still loving my 2011 Leaf.

Ian B

While you can certainly blame GM for announcing the upcoming, improved 2016 Volt and thus lowering demand for the current one as people hold off for details of that before deciding whether to pull the trigger now, how is GM responsible for lower gas prices that have changed the cost/benefit ratio for any car that uses gas, especially PHEVs/HEVs vs. ICEs?

 

[GRA]

The sample size is still pretty small, but it seems like BEVs are more insulated over PHEVs from the demand generated (or diminished) by the current price of gas.

Personal thought only: I assume this is because PHEVs owners (and would-be buyers) are still making trips to the station regularly and that those vehicle are utilized more conventionally using petrol, whereas a BEV purchaser's top priority in many cases is not likely to be the cost of fuel, but rather in being "eco-chic" and/or just avoiding the pump altogether.

I think it's a safe bet that PHEV owners are less likely to be environmental ideologues than BEV owners, and more motivated by conventional concerns (cost, convenience) than being 'pure'. Current gas prices eliminate the already weak economic argument for PHEVs (and BEVs in many cases) outside of states with large subsidies, and even inside some of them. Combine that with the fence sitters who want to wait to see what the 2016 Volt brings, and a drop in sales for the current Volt (and other PHEVs) is expected.

 

[TomT]

I think that the BEV i3 is at a disadvantage compared to many other BEVs, and that the Rex i3 is at a disadvantage compared to the 2016 volt. I personally don't see any scenario where the i3 comes out ahead. And, frankly, I don't let sales figures influence what cars I like or dislike...

Volt sales atrocious again, thanks GM. As soon as good offer comes, I am dumping it for a BMW i3. On the other hand, still loving my 2011 Leaf.

 

[jelloslug]

I think that the BEV i3 is at a disadvantage compared to many other BEVs, and that the Rex i3 is at a disadvantage compared to the 2016 volt. I personally don't see any scenario where the i3 comes out ahead. And, frankly, I don't let sales figures influence what cars I like or dislike...

That's assuming you live in a CARB state. In most of the country there is not much choice in BEVs.

 

[edatoakrun]

Greenautoblog has the monthly sales report including hybrids and diesels.

...falling gas prices may have yet again pulled people away from more fuel-efficient vehicles. Average US gas prices are down about a quarter a gallon from a month ago to $2.75, according to AAA.

Likely as a result, Toyota Prius sales continued to fall, with the model's four variants' sales declining 13 percent from a year earlier to 13,957 units. Camry and Avalon Hybrid sales each dropped more than 20 percent, while Lexus hybrid sales fell 6.1 percent. Overall, Toyota's green-car sales dropped 14 percent from a year earlier to 21,213 units.

US automakers Ford and General Motors also faltered. Ford green-car sales were down 18 percent from a year earlier on sales declines of the Fusion and C-Max hybrid and plug-in hybrid lines. GM was pulled down by the Chevrolet Volt extended-range plug-in, whose sales plunged 30 percent from a year earlier to 1,336 units. Overall, GM green-car sales dropped 28 percent from a year earlier to 2,617 units...

http://green.autoblog.com/2014/12/03/november-2014-green-car-sales/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As the graphic I posted a few days back shows, it is hard to see Hybrids or PHEV sales going anywhere but down given the current battery/gasoline cost realities.

Just look at the point where ~$2.75 a gallon gas and ~$200 a kWh batteries meet.

That's a long way from anywhere either PHEVs or hybrids become cost-competitive again...

...Amazing how quickly the economic realities of gas and battery prices have changed since the 2011 LEAF/Volt intro:



If gas prices stay below $3-a-gallon, and if battery prices have fallen as quickly as they appear to have (presently ~ $200-$300/kWh) it would seem PHEVs (and even hybrids) have very poor future prospects.

I nominate Toyota for the what-me worry? award:

NEWPORT BEACH, CA – With unleaded gasoline at $3 per gallon or less in many parts of the country and the 2015 debut of two fuel-efficient models looming, it seems like Toyota executives would be sweating bullets.

But Jim Lentz, the automaker’s CEO for North America, isn’t worried, thanks to an expected niche audience for the Mirai fuel-cell vehicle and the loyalty of Prius owners...

For the next-gen Prius, which he calls “quite spectacular,” Lentz believes the owners’ affection for current and prior models will drive them into showrooms for a replacement.

“(We) have 2 million owners (and) they’re fairly loyal to those vehicles,” he says. “I think we’re going to be fine.”...

http://wardsauto.com/sales-marketing/lentz-cheap-gas-shouldn-t-harm-mirai-prius-2015-sales-slightly" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;