TSLA corporate outlook

[GRA]

Both Fred Lambert at Electrek:

Tesla on self-driving claims: ‘failure to realize long-term, aspirational goal is not fraud’

https://electrek.co/2022/12/07/tesl...ealize-long-term-aspirational-goal-not-fraud/

Tesla defended itself in a lawsuit over its self-driving claims brought by a customer by saying that “mere failure to realize a long-term, aspirational goal is not fraud.”

In September, we reported on a Tesla owner filing a class-action lawsuit against Tesla over “allegedly misleading the public regarding its Autopilot, Enhanced Autopilot, and Full Self-Driving Capability (‘FSD’) technology.”

Since 2016, Tesla has claimed that all its vehicles produced going forward have “all the needed hardware” to become self-driving with future software updates.

However, the automaker has yet to deliver on the promise, and over the last few years, some owners have started to doubt Tesla’s ability to deliver at all – leading to the lawsuit now.

Last week, Tesla filed to have the lawsuit dismissed, which resulted in a rare comment from the automaker about not having delivered on self-driving yet [GRA: See title]. . . .

Calling Tesla’s advertisement that its vehicles will become self-driving a “long-term, aspirational goal” is the most cautious description of the goal from the automaker to date. But the approach will make it difficult for the plaintiffs.

They need to prove that Tesla intentionally misled customers into thinking they were buying vehicles that would become self-driving. They would need to prove that Tesla knew it couldn’t deliver on the promise, which could be difficult to do.

Tesla never promised a specific timeline for delivering on the goal, but CEO Elon Musk previously said that Tesla would achieve self-driving in 2020. The goal has been delayed several times.

In the motion to dismiss, Tesla argues that the complaint actually shows that Tesla has been working toward the goal of self-driving:

To the contrary, allegations in the Complaint demonstrate that Tesla has been constantly improving its ADAS technology by releasing software updates, with a goal of achieving more and better autonomy capabilities in the future.

Tesla also references several comments made by the company and CEO Elon Musk that constituted warnings that there will be issues bringing self-driving to market.

In addition, from early on, Tesla made clear that “there will still be a significant time gap, varying widely by jurisdiction, before true self-driving is approved by regulators.”

The company ends its argument by saying that “the Complaint identifies no specific timeline promised by Tesla to release fully autonomous capabilities to the general public.”

Electrek’s Take
It’s interesting that at least Tesla admits failure to achieve the goal because I’ve seen them moving the goalposts as of late.

Musk went from mentioning “1 million robotaxi on the road by the end of the year” to “1 million people with FSD Beta by the end of the year” to “anyone who bought FSD will get access to the Beta in North America by the end of the year.”

Tesla has now achieved that last version of the goal, but that’s so far from the original goal that it’s not in the same league.

On top of what we hear about a new sensor suite potentially coming, things are not looking great on the FSD front. As I have said for a long time, Tesla should at least offer refunds to those who bought the FSD package.

Re the bolded section:

Tesla says it is adding radar in its cars next month amid self-driving suite concerns

https://electrek.co/2022/12/06/tesla-radar-car-next-month-self-driving-suite-concerns/

Tesla told the FCC that it plans to market a new radar starting next month. The move raises even more concerns about potentially needed updates to its hardware suite to achieve the promised self-driving capability.

Since 2016, Tesla has claimed that all its vehicles produced going forward have “all the needed hardware” to become self-driving with future software updates.

It turned out not to be true.

Tesla already had to upgrade its onboard computer and cameras in earlier vehicles, and it has yet to achieve self-driving capability. Its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software is still in beta and doesn’t enable fully autonomous driving.

The automaker not only had to upgrade its hardware in some cases, but it even removed some hardware. First, it was the front-facing radar and more recently the ultrasonic sensors. . . .

The company removed the radars on its vehicles last year and the ultrasonic sensors earlier this year.

That’s why it was surprising earlier this year when we reported on Tesla filing with the FCC to use a new radar in its vehicles. The FCC had granted a confidential treatment to Tesla in order not to release the details of the new radar. . . .

In the request, Tesla confirms that it plans to start marketing the new device in “mid-January.”

Tesla CEO Elon Musk told Electrek in June of last year after Tesla stopped using its radar:

The probability of safety will be higher with pure vision than vision+radar, not lower. Vision has become so good that radar actually reduces signal/noise.

However, the CEO also added that Tesla might still use radar if it had a “very high-resolution radar”:

A very high resolution radar would be better than pure vision, but such a radar does not exist. I mean vision with high res radar would be better than pure vision.

We saw some indications of Tesla working on that. We previously reported on Tesla looking to add a new “4D” imaging radar with twice the range of its previous radar. . . .

Tesla was always going to keep improving its Autopilot/self-driving hardware so there’s nothing wrong with what’s happening, but it still feeds into the growing concerns that Tesla can’t achieve its promised self-driving capability with the current hardware.

So there’s a possibility that Tesla is going to unveil a new suite of self-driving hardware next month that just improves the capability and Tesla still plans to deliver self-driving on the current hardware.

But I think there’s room for concerns after Tesla has been wrong about self-driving several times already. It might be wrong about the current vehicles being able to achieve it.

 

[WetEV]

The Glass Onion is not about Musk. Wink Wink.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/12/24/glass-onion-musk-trump-ye-00075002

 

[cwerdna]

For those planning to be in So Cal before Oct 22, 2023, if you like car museums, I think Tesla fanboys would like or love https://www.petersen.org/tesla. I was at the museum Tuesday (I'm in So Cal for a vacation) and didn't know this exhibit would be there. It occupies an entire gallery on the 1st floor.

https://www.lamag.com/culturefiles/tesla-retrospective-revisits-elon-musk-the-stable-genius/ that I just skimmed lists some items that are there. There was a looping video showing each of Tesla's plants, what they produce, some stats/claims about them, etc.

No idea if Tesla paid anything to have this spot but it sure feels like marketing to me...

 

[palmermd]

For those planning to be in So Cal before Oct 22, 2023, if you like car museums, I think Tesla fanboys would like or love https://www.petersen.org/tesla. I was at the museum Tuesday (I'm in So Cal for a vacation) and didn't know this exhibit would be there. It occupies an entire gallery on the 1st floor.

https://www.lamag.com/culturefiles/tesla-retrospective-revisits-elon-musk-the-stable-genius/ that I just skimmed lists some items that are there. There was a looping video showing each of Tesla's plants, what they produce, some stats/claims about them, etc.

No idea if Tesla paid anything to have this spot but it sure feels like marketing to me...

https://youtu.be/xTH3Nm_Ca1g

some glimpses of the displays....

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

Tesla has been bombarding me with adds over the past couple weeks, primarily on YouTube. Nearly every 3rd add is a Tesla ad now talking about the engineering advantages of Tesla. Is this happening to anyone else?

 

[Chad E. Mo]

Not a peep here.

 

[Yodrak]

Tesla has been bombarding me with adds over the past couple weeks, primarily on YouTube. Nearly every 3rd add is a Tesla ad now talking about the engineering advantages of Tesla. Is this happening to anyone else?

No Tesla adds on YouTube, but I have been getting regular e-mails offering to carry over my free supercharging and/or my FSD and/or no charge for optional paint color if I buy a new Tesla by March 31. Tesla must be pushing hard to meet sales expectations for the quarter.

 

[martinwinlow]

No Tesla adds on YouTube, but I have been getting regular e-mails offering to carry over my free supercharging and/or my FSD and/or no charge for optional paint color if I buy a new Tesla by March 31. Tesla must be pushing hard to meet sales expectations for the quarter.

"

Tesla must be pushing hard to meet sales expectations for the quarter." As ever...

 

[Chad E. Mo]

Maybe this:

 

[cwerdna]

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2024/05/tesla-announces-fourth-round-of-layoffs-in-four-weeks/

 

[cwerdna]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/17/as-tesla-layoffs-continue-here-are-600-jobs-cut-in-california.html points to a copy of the CA WARN filing at https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cn...6/Tesla_Inc_ALA_NOV_202301259_05-13-20247.pdf with details as to the roles that were cut.

 

[cwerdna]

Tesla stock slides after Q4 delivery miss, first yearly sales decline
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesl...iss-first-yearly-sales-decline-210637333.html

Tesla sales dropped 1.1% in 2024, its first annual decline in a dozen years
https://apnews.com/article/tesla-sales-2024-drop-electric-vehicles-69af17c4e606625694af8293db25b2f3
"The Austin, Texas, company sold 495,570 vehicles from October through December, boosting deliveries to 1.79 million for the full year. That was 1.1% below 2023 sales of 1.81 million as overall demand for electric vehicles in the U.S. and elsewhere slowed."

Tesla shares slide after it reports first drop in annual deliveries
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/02/tesla-tsla-q4-2024-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html

As Tesla flags, its hungry Chinese rivals are having a great week
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-flags-hungry-chinese-rivals-043103763.html
"Tesla's Chinese rivals, on the other hand, saw a rise in sales at the end of 2024.

BYD said on Wednesday that it had sold 1.76 million battery electric cars in 2024, a 12% increase from the 1.57 million cars it sold in 2023.

Smaller EV makers like Nio and Xpeng saw similar improvements in their sales figures as well.

Nio said in a statement on Wednesday that it had delivered 221,970 vehicles in 2024, a 38.7% increase from the 160,038 cars it delivered in 2023.

Xpeng delivered 190,068 vehicles last year, a 34% increase from the 141,601 vehicles delivered in 2023, per a filing made on Wednesday.

To be sure, Tesla is still the world's largest EV maker. The company played a pioneering role in popularizing EVs when it first burst into the scene with the Roadster in 2008."

At some point after Tesla is building 10 million units annually they are expected to supply other makers with batteries, motors, software and hardware. They did supply MB with motors and batteries earlier to launch them into the EV field.

I wonder if they will ever get there. They just had a annual sales decline vs. the previous year and in 2024 per https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-fourth-quarter-2024-production-deliveries-and-deployments, they produced 1.77 million vehicles.

10 million a year from TSLA would be scary. That's basically what Toyota group or formerly VW Group roughly does each year. Tesla can't even do a good job w/keeping their US vehicles serviced in a timely fashion and with a uniformly good experience w/the population they have now.

I've heard similar complaints in some other parts of the world on "TMC".

 

[johnlocke]

Tesla stock slides after Q4 delivery miss, first yearly sales decline
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesl...iss-first-yearly-sales-decline-210637333.html

Tesla sales dropped 1.1% in 2024, its first annual decline in a dozen years
https://apnews.com/article/tesla-sales-2024-drop-electric-vehicles-69af17c4e606625694af8293db25b2f3
"The Austin, Texas, company sold 495,570 vehicles from October through December, boosting deliveries to 1.79 million for the full year. That was 1.1% below 2023 sales of 1.81 million as overall demand for electric vehicles in the U.S. and elsewhere slowed."

Tesla shares slide after it reports first drop in annual deliveries
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/02/tesla-tsla-q4-2024-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html

As Tesla flags, its hungry Chinese rivals are having a great week
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-flags-hungry-chinese-rivals-043103763.html
"Tesla's Chinese rivals, on the other hand, saw a rise in sales at the end of 2024.

BYD said on Wednesday that it had sold 1.76 million battery electric cars in 2024, a 12% increase from the 1.57 million cars it sold in 2023.

Smaller EV makers like Nio and Xpeng saw similar improvements in their sales figures as well.

Nio said in a statement on Wednesday that it had delivered 221,970 vehicles in 2024, a 38.7% increase from the 160,038 cars it delivered in 2023.

Xpeng delivered 190,068 vehicles last year, a 34% increase from the 141,601 vehicles delivered in 2023, per a filing made on Wednesday.

To be sure, Tesla is still the world's largest EV maker. The company played a pioneering role in popularizing EVs when it first burst into the scene with the Roadster in 2008."

I wonder if they will ever get there. They just had a annual sales decline vs. the previous year and in 2024 per https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-fourth-quarter-2024-production-deliveries-and-deployments, they produced 1.77 million vehicles.

10 million a year from TSLA would be scary. That's basically what Toyota group or formerly VW Group roughly does each year. Tesla can't even do a good job w/keeping their US vehicles serviced in a timely fashion and with a uniformly good experience w/the population they have now.

I've heard similar complaints in some other parts of the world on "TMC".

Wait for the Model Y refresh. A lot of potential buyers are on the sidelines waiting for the refresh. Even if the refresh isn't that wonderful, a lot of buyers will pick up either a 3 or a '24 Y instead. If the refreshed Y is as improved as expected, sales will pick up rapidly. In any case the Shanghai Mega-factory is coming online which will bump the stock up. Robotaxi is a wildcard. Even if Elon manages to get a production set up, the regulatory problems and liability issues will limit production. Public acceptance of driverless cabs will take time as well. The Teslabot has the potential to replace factory workers at a fraction of the cost even if it is limited to simple tasks. Most people look at Tesla as an automotive company but it's actually a robotics company. There's a lot more to Tesla than cars.

 

[cwerdna]

Wait for the Model Y refresh. A lot of potential buyers are on the sidelines waiting for the refresh. Even if the refresh isn't that wonderful, a lot of buyers will pick up either a 3 or a '24 Y instead. If the refreshed Y is as improved as expected, sales will pick up rapidly. In any case the Shanghai Mega-factory is coming online which will bump the stock up. Robotaxi is a wildcard. Even if Elon manages to get a production set up, the regulatory problems and liability issues will limit production. Public acceptance of driverless cabs will take time as well. The Teslabot has the potential to replace factory workers at a fraction of the cost even if it is limited to simple tasks. Most people look at Tesla as an automotive company but it's actually a robotics company. There's a lot more to Tesla than cars.

News to me about "A lot of potential buyers are on the sidelines waiting for the refresh." If the pull the same crap as they did on the 3 w/getting rid of the stalks and shift lever + putting the signal and wiper controls on the steering wheel, that will hinder Y sales. Sure, other updates on the Highland 3 were nice but not THAT aspect.

If they didn't do away w/the stalks, put on a proper wiper control (with int, low, high and knob to adjust intermittent or a proper rain sensor instead of their poorly working attempt with cameras), put a speedo in front of the driver or made a HUD an option, added CarPlay and Android Auto support + Around View Monitor equivalent (360 degree virtual overhead view) as an option, that would do a lot to attract buyers.

As for the other stuff, if you look at https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828024043486/tsla-20240930.htm, page 5, 80% of their revenues are still from automotive. As for robots, hah. Other people have been building robots for ages that even Tesla uses (e.g. from Kuka). Boston Dynamics has put out some impressive stuff and Hyundai bought them (https://www.hyundai.com/worldwide/en/brand-journal/mobility-solution/hyundai-boston-dynamics).

Tesla and Elon sure know how to hype/publicize things that other folks have been doing for years. Or, some have tried and failed... and guess what? Tesla has failed at them too.

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

I think Elon hopes to leapfrog the work from Boston Dynamics and combine with AI from the cars into the bots. It's a big bet for certain.

Personally, I think Elon should sell Tesla now that evs are commodities and even self driving is being heavily invested in by multiple groups. Yes his tech could be better...but not enough value differentiation for a huge premium...so also a commodity as it launches. Ex, even my stone age pro pilot one of my wife's Rogue only had 2 interventions in 600cmiles of freeway driving on our last trip to Kansas. How much more would I pay for the Rogue to pull up at the station...it's a small number.

Take that money and double down on SpaceX, Sterling, and the bots.

 

[nlspace]

Sell telsa and double down on spacex?

SpaceX is leon's dream to occupy mars, which is more of a drug-induced sci-fi movie than anything real or possible--it is an impossible crack-pipe dream.

Assuming he will pursue this for the rest of his useful working life and with his current wealth, then he could spend $100 M per day and still never spend it all before he dies. He will run out of time before he runs out of money.

$100M is the cost of one big rocket, so he could easily afford to launch one a day toward his dream vacation spot. But even with all those launches, the technical difficulties of building a city on mars cannot be overcome. Just consider some of the basics: air and water. The space station is only 200 miles away, and yet it is not self sufficient with respect to these two.

But it sure is fun watching him spend away

 

[johnlocke]

Sell telsa and double down on spacex?

SpaceX is leon's dream to occupy mars, which is more of a drug-induced sci-fi movie than anything real or possible--it is an impossible crack-pipe dream.

Assuming he will pursue this for the rest of his useful working life and with his current wealth, then he could spend $100 M per day and still never spend it all before he dies. He will run out of time before he runs out of money.

$100M is the cost of one big rocket, so he could easily afford to launch one a day toward his dream vacation spot. But even with all those launches, the technical difficulties of building a city on mars cannot be overcome. Just consider some of the basics: air and water. The space station is only 200 miles away, and yet it is not self sufficient with respect to these two.

But it sure is fun watching him spend away

The Earth is flat, you'll sail off the edge. Man will never fly. Man will never fly to moon, Space stations are a pipedream. Everything seems impossible until someone actually does it. Life is littered with failed attempts but unless you attempt something you will always fail. Elon has money to burn. SpaceX was a pipedream. You can't build reusable rockets. Starlink is impossible because you just can't launch that many satellites. Electric cars are foolish. Where will you plug them in? Maybe Elon won't make it to Mars but even so we'll learn a lot about how to do it and it will be entertaining!

 

[johnlocke]

I think Elon hopes to leapfrog the work from Boston Dynamics and combine with AI from the cars into the bots. It's a big bet for certain.

Personally, I think Elon should sell Tesla now that evs are commodities and even self driving is being heavily invested in by multiple groups. Yes his tech could be better...but not enough value differentiation for a huge premium...so also a commodity as it launches. Ex, even my stone age pro pilot one of my wife's Rogue only had 2 interventions in 600cmiles of freeway driving on our last trip to Kansas. How much more would I pay for the Rogue to pull up at the station...it's a small number.

Take that money and double down on SpaceX, Sterling, and the bots.

Elon already owns 54% of SpaceX and about 13% of Tesla. The robots are under Tesla's corporate umbrella so no gain there. Elon will eventually hold about 20-25% of Tesla when the dust clears over his compensation. SpaceX will make money hand over fist with Starlink and the Launch business. They are already far and away the cheapest delivery system to orbit. Starship will drive their cost per pound to orbit even lower. There will be some government subsidized competition just because governments don't like to rely on a single source but SpaceX will have the lion's share. Starlink is simply a money machine. Insanely expensive to build but once operational relatively inexpensive to maintain and a cash cow. Even there, Elon has managed to reduce costs by mass production of the satellites and Starship to launch them.