DougWantsALeaf
Posts: 2000
Joined: Fri May 10, 2013 8:21 pm
Delivery Date: 18 May 2013
Leaf Number: 407811
Location: Chicago North Side

Re: Lucid Motors Air

Fri Aug 14, 2020 4:59 am

300 miles/30k. 2025 --freeway miles (so 330-350 epa miles). We already have 300 city miles for 30k.

For range, while yes 500 is great, beyond 300 miles of range, the sole selling point of range becomes less important (unless you are towing).

Already, with 200+ miles of range, we hardly think about it. Trips to Milwaukee, downstate, etc. (From Chicago), not even a thought.
2019 S Plus (97.98% SOH) & 2019 SV Plus (94.84% SOH) Both Silver
2013 Leaf SV sold 2019 with 11 bars
100 Mile Club Member (Number 87)
Max Miles on 13 Leaf: 120 miles
Max Miles on 19 SV+: 242 Highway miles @ 4.5 miles/kWh

GRA
Posts: 12195
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Lucid Motors Air

Fri Aug 14, 2020 5:41 pm

DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 4:59 am
300 miles/30k. 2025 --freeway miles (so 330-350 epa miles). We already have 300 city miles for 30k.


In a limited set of conditions, when new (see below).

DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 4:59 am
For range, while yes 500 is great, beyond 300 miles of range, the sole selling point of range becomes less important (unless you are towing).

Already, with 200+ miles of range, we hardly think about it. Trips to Milwaukee, downstate, etc. (From Chicago), not even a thought.

Unfortunately, with current batteries you need a lot of extra range (or reserved capacity) to allow for degradation. With the longest capacity warranty only eight years/70% but the average age of the LDV fleet now 11.9 years, and 1/4 of the fleet are, like my car, 16+ years old, the value proposition still isn't there for most people.

Who wants to come up with a lump sum $8-10k for a new pack on an 8 year-old car just to make it capable of acceptable range for the rest of the car's lifetime? 500 miles new is 350 miles @70% (figure 300 Hwy with reserve and allowances), which I think we both agree is the range needed to be a realistic replacement for ICEs, and if that's the best that can be done with 1/2 of the car's useful life remaining it simply doesn't add up - the cars are still throwaways, with all the embedded energy losses. Barring life of the vehicle batteries, 500 miles new still isn't enough.

With such batteries still falling into the rumors category, I remain a fan of battery leasing - it's currently the only way to avoid the huge mid-life financial hit needed to keep a car viable for its lifetime for any trip you or a subsequent owner might take.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

DougWantsALeaf
Posts: 2000
Joined: Fri May 10, 2013 8:21 pm
Delivery Date: 18 May 2013
Leaf Number: 407811
Location: Chicago North Side

Re: Lucid Motors Air

Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:01 pm

In 5 years I won't care much just like TV sets.

The 42" Plasma I bought for $900 in 2007 looked ancient in 2013 compared to the 50" LCD sets for $700 which looked ancient to the 55" UHD Roku TV that sits in its place for $300.

Not saying I don't care about the money sunk into the car, just saying that the tech is moving so fast now that in 5 years well be swapping our 60 packs for 120kW packs which weight 80% of the current ones.
2019 S Plus (97.98% SOH) & 2019 SV Plus (94.84% SOH) Both Silver
2013 Leaf SV sold 2019 with 11 bars
100 Mile Club Member (Number 87)
Max Miles on 13 Leaf: 120 miles
Max Miles on 19 SV+: 242 Highway miles @ 4.5 miles/kWh

GRA
Posts: 12195
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Lucid Motors Air

Fri Aug 14, 2020 7:54 pm

^^^ Swapping assumes a manufacturer has an incentive to provide that option rather than selling you a new car. At the moment, none of them see it that way, but Nio leases.
There aren't as yet any reputable aftermarket suppliers who provide upgraded pack swaps on a large scale.

Our differing opinions are undoubtedly influenced by our attitudes towards the expected (if not required) lifetime of durable goods. I'm using a 17.5 y.o. car that still meets all the needs I bought it for, a 16 y.o. CRT TV ditto, and my now 46 y.o. external frame backpack on trips for which it's better suited than the alternatives (hot weather mostly on trails, heavy loads).

I did replace my 12 y.o. flip phone with a smart phone last year, but only because I no longer make phone calls owing to hearing loss, and texting is easier on the smart phone. The flip phone still worked just fine for what I bought it for, was smaller, lighter and more rugged than its replacement (and was still on the original battery, because I used it so little), but in that case my needs had changed enough that it was worth switching.

People who need/want the latest and greatest obviously have a different attitude towards new tech and what constitutes acceptable value for money than I do. I believe part of the difference is due to the fact that I spend a long time researching all the alternatives before choosing a product, and while like anyone I have my biases, I know what they are, and avoid letting them influence my objective evaluation of said product; the subjective stuff comes in later.

I don't let myself fall in love/lust with a product/tech, and I'm also willing to wait for what is in some cases years (almost a decade now in the case of AFVs) if nothing is currently available with the capabilities I know I need to satisfy me over the long haul.

In short I'm picky and thrifty as hell, and the new thing has to provide a very substantial improvement over the old to justify replacement. Just the way I was raised, and it's obviously unsuitable for people who are more into instant gratification and willing to repeatedly pay a lot extra for incremental improvements. I'm constitutionally incapable of that even when I can afford doing it, even ignoring the violation of the 3R's.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

salyavin
Posts: 190
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:51 pm
Delivery Date: 30 Dec 2019
Leaf Number: 318726
Location: Littleton , CO

Re: Lucid Motors Air

Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:11 pm

All extremely respectable GRA. Is this why you do not own a BEV the price hit? Your local travel strategy is very respectable. I myself prefer to drive cars a long time but when the time comes for a battery swap in the LEAF I'll have to evaluate where I am at the time if I'd rather replace the car or fix it, 5 or 6k at the time (I am assuming) would be cheaper than a car payment.

On requiring a 500 mile battery not being enough I am not so sure I would think about a 300 would do it, 210 would be the 70%. Of course the more the better as it lets you skip more charging but really I have been happy with the Plus range for multistate travel it just needs cooling to keep the charge speed acceptable. Every bit more does help though.

Another thing to consider is a large part of the population cannot afford a new car every 5 years or 8 years, a lot of people only buy a used car and drive that until it is too expensive to fix. A problem BEVs have is while charging tends to be cheaper than gas (often free depending on where you are for l2) no oil changes, no belts, no muffler, no water pump etc. there is that big hit of the battery at once that many people won't plan for or be able to do. I seem to recall Prius battery packs getting cheaper and various options available I hope similar happens for BEVs but we don't have it yet. I would like to see BEVs be the dominant passenger car on the road but I wonder about what happens to them when the battery goes.

johnlocke
Posts: 623
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Leaf Number: 300582

Re: Lucid Motors Air

Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:29 pm

The only car company likely to offer an upgraded battery pack for your car is Tesla, Tesla wants it's cars to last 30 years or more, It is not interested in built in obsolescence and selling you a new car every 4-6 years, Tesla simply wants to displace all ICE vehicles with Tesla products.
If Elon has his Million Mile battery ready, the battery may outlive the car anyway. The current batteries are good enough to last 200000- 300000 miles which is longer then most ICE cars last. Compare that to Nissan who won't sell you an upgraded battery at any price. You can get a 40 KWH battery to replace your 30 KWH only because they don't make the 30 anymore and the cost is $12000. You can't buy a 40 or 60 for your 24 KWH from Nissan at all.
2016 SV, New battery at 45K mi.
Jamul, CA
San Diego East County

GRA
Posts: 12195
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Lucid Motors Air

Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:16 pm

salyavin wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:11 pm
All extremely respectable GRA. Is this why you do not own a BEV the price hit?
Price/size/range/charging speed/lack of charging both local and on trips to the places I go/lack of AWD/lack of longevity. If GM had built the car I and many others were asking for by say 2016, a sub-$40k compact AWD CUV or wagon with a Voltec-powertrain (with my use case I'd prefer one with half the battery pack/AER of the Volt 2 to lower the price/boost the efficiency/provide a spare tire well, i.e. 25-30 mile AER and >=40 mpg HWY), that would have been enough of an improvement long enough to be worthwhile. As it is we still don't have any PEVs that meet my requirements, although we're getting closer. The Niro BEV and Niro/RAV4 PHEVs come closest for me at the moment, although all fall short in one or more areas.

As of now, it makes little sense to me to buy anything less than a ZEV given the number of years until I believe suitable ones are available; I really don't want to buy another car that burns fossil fuels. And ideally, given how intermittently I need a car I'd prefer to just rent or have a subscription instead of buying another. Until I have convenient access to ZEVs via one or the other, that's not an option. I have no emotional commitment to car ownership, but pandemic concerns could affect that calculus somewhat.


salyavin wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:11 pm
Your local travel strategy is very respectable. I myself prefer to drive cars a long time but when the time comes for a battery swap in the LEAF I'll have to evaluate where I am at the time if I'd rather replace the car or fix it, 5 or 6k at the time (I am assuming) would be cheaper than a car payment.

Yeah, everybody's got to make that calc for themselves. Leasing eliminates the one big hit problem as it's pay as you go, and encourages companies to offer upgraded batteries when the time comes for replacement (or before, if your needs change).

salyavin wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:11 pm
On requiring a 500 mile battery not being enough I am not so sure I would think about a 300 would do it, 210 would be the 70%. Of course the more the better as it lets you skip more charging but really I have been happy with the Plus range for multistate travel it just needs cooling to keep the charge speed acceptable. Every bit more does help though.

Again, it's situationally dependent. In my (and most Bay Area residents who regularly drive to the mountains) case, from that 210 you also have to allow at least a 30 mile reserve, heat/defrost in winter (I ski), from 7 to 10 thousand feet of climb, chains and roof/tail hitch rack loads, etc. When you consider that most of the places I/we drive to recreate at on a weekend include one or more of the above and are 180-350 miles away, you can see why 300 new is marginal for our needs (and why I consider a heat pump mandatory for a BEV). For people who don't need to allow for any of the above, it may be fine.

salyavin wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:11 pm
Another thing to consider is a large part of the population cannot afford a new car every 5 years or 8 years, a lot of people only buy a used car and drive that until it is too expensive to fix. A problem BEVs have is while charging tends to be cheaper than gas (often free depending on where you are for l2) no oil changes, no belts, no muffler, no water pump etc. there is that big hit of the battery at once that many people won't plan for or be able to do. I seem to recall Prius battery packs getting cheaper and various options available I hope similar happens for BEVs but we don't have it yet. I would like to see BEVs be the dominant passenger car on the road but I wonder about what happens to them when the battery goes.

And that's my concern. A car shouldn't be severely functionally compromised after just 8 years. Very few people would buy ICEs now if you told them they'd have to replace the powertrain after that time to allow the car to retain its original capabilities, given routine maintenance.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

DougWantsALeaf
Posts: 2000
Joined: Fri May 10, 2013 8:21 pm
Delivery Date: 18 May 2013
Leaf Number: 407811
Location: Chicago North Side

Re: Lucid Motors Air

Sat Aug 15, 2020 5:48 am

??
Now, as a middle a age fellow, we generally buy new out of part laziness. But when I was in my early 20s I had both a 7 year old used Honda accord and a Oldsmobile that within 2 years of purchase required engine rebuilds...kind of the same thing, isn't it?

Many 2012-2014 models S cars have had both motor and pack replacements.

On the same breath, many 2014 Leafs have plenty of life left and meet many people's use cases.
2019 S Plus (97.98% SOH) & 2019 SV Plus (94.84% SOH) Both Silver
2013 Leaf SV sold 2019 with 11 bars
100 Mile Club Member (Number 87)
Max Miles on 13 Leaf: 120 miles
Max Miles on 19 SV+: 242 Highway miles @ 4.5 miles/kWh

GRA
Posts: 12195
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Lucid Motors Air

Sat Aug 15, 2020 8:25 am

DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Sat Aug 15, 2020 5:48 am
??
Now, as a middle a age fellow, we generally buy new out of part laziness. But when I was in my early 20s I had both a 7 year old used Honda accord and a Oldsmobile that within 2 years of purchase required engine rebuilds...kind of the same thing, isn't it?
Not exactly. There's a reason Japanese car companies overtook U.S. companies in sales. Part was efficiency, but most of it was reliability.

DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Sat Aug 15, 2020 5:48 am
Many 2012-2014 models S cars have had both motor and pack replacements.

Uh huh, which is one reason I won't be buying a Tesla.

DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Sat Aug 15, 2020 5:48 am
On the same breath, many 2014 Leafs have plenty of life left and meet many people's use cases.

Which vehicle meets more people's use case - one which has the same capability as new, or one which has lost 30% or more of that capability? Which provides the better long-term value?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 3918
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Lucid Motors Air

Sat Aug 15, 2020 8:49 am

GRA wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:16 pm
salyavin wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:11 pm
All extremely respectable GRA. Is this why you do not own a BEV the price hit?
Price/size/range/charging speed/lack of charging both local and on trips to the places I go/lack of AWD/lack of longevity.
Potential owners are in a distribution. Those that have good home charging situation, drive mostly locally, have cheap electric rates, can afford to take risks on new technologies, and so on: these are at one end of the distribution, the likely current EV owners and the likely soon to be EV owners. Those that much rely on expensive public charging, mostly take long trips and don't drive much locally, have high electric rates and need the cheapest and lowest risk transportation are on the other end of the distribution. The last ICE drivers.

As far as I can tell, GRA is unlikely to be an EV owner anytime soon.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

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