Lucid Motors Air

300 miles/30k. 2025 --freeway miles (so 330-350 epa miles). We already have 300 city miles for 30k.

For range, while yes 500 is great, beyond 300 miles of range, the sole selling point of range becomes less important (unless you are towing).

Already, with 200+ miles of range, we hardly think about it. Trips to Milwaukee, downstate, etc. (From Chicago), not even a thought.

DougWantsALeaf said:

300 miles/30k. 2025 --freeway miles (so 330-350 epa miles). We already have 300 city miles for 30k.

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In a limited set of conditions, when new (see below).

DougWantsALeaf said:

For range, while yes 500 is great, beyond 300 miles of range, the sole selling point of range becomes less important (unless you are towing).

Already, with 200+ miles of range, we hardly think about it. Trips to Milwaukee, downstate, etc. (From Chicago), not even a thought.

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Unfortunately, with current batteries you need a lot of extra range (or reserved capacity) to allow for degradation. With the longest capacity warranty only eight years/70% but the average age of the LDV fleet now 11.9 years, and 1/4 of the fleet are, like my car, 16+ years old, the value proposition still isn't there for most people.

Who wants to come up with a lump sum $8-10k for a new pack on an 8 year-old car just to make it capable of acceptable range for the rest of the car's lifetime? 500 miles new is 350 miles @70% (figure 300 Hwy with reserve and allowances), which I think we both agree is the range needed to be a realistic replacement for ICEs, and if that's the best that can be done with 1/2 of the car's useful life remaining it simply doesn't add up - the cars are still throwaways, with all the embedded energy losses. Barring life of the vehicle batteries, 500 miles new still isn't enough.

With such batteries still falling into the rumors category, I remain a fan of battery leasing - it's currently the only way to avoid the huge mid-life financial hit needed to keep a car viable for its lifetime for any trip you or a subsequent owner might take.

In 5 years I won't care much just like TV sets.

The 42" Plasma I bought for $900 in 2007 looked ancient in 2013 compared to the 50" LCD sets for $700 which looked ancient to the 55" UHD Roku TV that sits in its place for $300.

Not saying I don't care about the money sunk into the car, just saying that the tech is moving so fast now that in 5 years well be swapping our 60 packs for 120kW packs which weight 80% of the current ones.

^^^ Swapping assumes a manufacturer has an incentive to provide that option rather than selling you a new car. At the moment, none of them see it that way, but Nio leases.
There aren't as yet any reputable aftermarket suppliers who provide upgraded pack swaps on a large scale.

Our differing opinions are undoubtedly influenced by our attitudes towards the expected (if not required) lifetime of durable goods. I'm using a 17.5 y.o. car that still meets all the needs I bought it for, a 16 y.o. CRT TV ditto, and my now 46 y.o. external frame backpack on trips for which it's better suited than the alternatives (hot weather mostly on trails, heavy loads).

I did replace my 12 y.o. flip phone with a smart phone last year, but only because I no longer make phone calls owing to hearing loss, and texting is easier on the smart phone. The flip phone still worked just fine for what I bought it for, was smaller, lighter and more rugged than its replacement (and was still on the original battery, because I used it so little), but in that case my needs had changed enough that it was worth switching.

People who need/want the latest and greatest obviously have a different attitude towards new tech and what constitutes acceptable value for money than I do. I believe part of the difference is due to the fact that I spend a long time researching all the alternatives before choosing a product, and while like anyone I have my biases, I know what they are, and avoid letting them influence my objective evaluation of said product; the subjective stuff comes in later.

I don't let myself fall in love/lust with a product/tech, and I'm also willing to wait for what is in some cases years (almost a decade now in the case of AFVs) if nothing is currently available with the capabilities I know I need to satisfy me over the long haul.

In short I'm picky and thrifty as hell, and the new thing has to provide a very substantial improvement over the old to justify replacement. Just the way I was raised, and it's obviously unsuitable for people who are more into instant gratification and willing to repeatedly pay a lot extra for incremental improvements. I'm constitutionally incapable of that even when I can afford doing it, even ignoring the violation of the 3R's.

All extremely respectable GRA. Is this why you do not own a BEV the price hit? Your local travel strategy is very respectable. I myself prefer to drive cars a long time but when the time comes for a battery swap in the LEAF I'll have to evaluate where I am at the time if I'd rather replace the car or fix it, 5 or 6k at the time (I am assuming) would be cheaper than a car payment.

On requiring a 500 mile battery not being enough I am not so sure I would think about a 300 would do it, 210 would be the 70%. Of course the more the better as it lets you skip more charging but really I have been happy with the Plus range for multistate travel it just needs cooling to keep the charge speed acceptable. Every bit more does help though.

Another thing to consider is a large part of the population cannot afford a new car every 5 years or 8 years, a lot of people only buy a used car and drive that until it is too expensive to fix. A problem BEVs have is while charging tends to be cheaper than gas (often free depending on where you are for l2) no oil changes, no belts, no muffler, no water pump etc. there is that big hit of the battery at once that many people won't plan for or be able to do. I seem to recall Prius battery packs getting cheaper and various options available I hope similar happens for BEVs but we don't have it yet. I would like to see BEVs be the dominant passenger car on the road but I wonder about what happens to them when the battery goes.

The only car company likely to offer an upgraded battery pack for your car is Tesla, Tesla wants it's cars to last 30 years or more, It is not interested in built in obsolescence and selling you a new car every 4-6 years, Tesla simply wants to displace all ICE vehicles with Tesla products.
If Elon has his Million Mile battery ready, the battery may outlive the car anyway. The current batteries are good enough to last 200000- 300000 miles which is longer then most ICE cars last. Compare that to Nissan who won't sell you an upgraded battery at any price. You can get a 40 KWH battery to replace your 30 KWH only because they don't make the 30 anymore and the cost is $12000. You can't buy a 40 or 60 for your 24 KWH from Nissan at all.

salyavin said:

All extremely respectable GRA. Is this why you do not own a BEV the price hit?

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Price/size/range/charging speed/lack of charging both local and on trips to the places I go/lack of AWD/lack of longevity. If GM had built the car I and many others were asking for by say 2016, a sub-$40k compact AWD CUV or wagon with a Voltec-powertrain (with my use case I'd prefer one with half the battery pack/AER of the Volt 2 to lower the price/boost the efficiency/provide a spare tire well, i.e. 25-30 mile AER and >=40 mpg HWY), that would have been enough of an improvement long enough to be worthwhile. As it is we still don't have any PEVs that meet my requirements, although we're getting closer. The Niro BEV and Niro/RAV4 PHEVs come closest for me at the moment, although all fall short in one or more areas.

As of now, it makes little sense to me to buy anything less than a ZEV given the number of years until I believe suitable ones are available; I really don't want to buy another car that burns fossil fuels. And ideally, given how intermittently I need a car I'd prefer to just rent or have a subscription instead of buying another. Until I have convenient access to ZEVs via one or the other, that's not an option. I have no emotional commitment to car ownership, but pandemic concerns could affect that calculus somewhat.

salyavin said:

Your local travel strategy is very respectable. I myself prefer to drive cars a long time but when the time comes for a battery swap in the LEAF I'll have to evaluate where I am at the time if I'd rather replace the car or fix it, 5 or 6k at the time (I am assuming) would be cheaper than a car payment.

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Yeah, everybody's got to make that calc for themselves. Leasing eliminates the one big hit problem as it's pay as you go, and encourages companies to offer upgraded batteries when the time comes for replacement (or before, if your needs change).

salyavin said:

On requiring a 500 mile battery not being enough I am not so sure I would think about a 300 would do it, 210 would be the 70%. Of course the more the better as it lets you skip more charging but really I have been happy with the Plus range for multistate travel it just needs cooling to keep the charge speed acceptable. Every bit more does help though.

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Again, it's situationally dependent. In my (and most Bay Area residents who regularly drive to the mountains) case, from that 210 you also have to allow at least a 30 mile reserve, heat/defrost in winter (I ski), from 7 to 10 thousand feet of climb, chains and roof/tail hitch rack loads, etc. When you consider that most of the places I/we drive to recreate at on a weekend include one or more of the above and are 180-350 miles away, you can see why 300 new is marginal for our needs (and why I consider a heat pump mandatory for a BEV). For people who don't need to allow for any of the above, it may be fine.

salyavin said:

Another thing to consider is a large part of the population cannot afford a new car every 5 years or 8 years, a lot of people only buy a used car and drive that until it is too expensive to fix. A problem BEVs have is while charging tends to be cheaper than gas (often free depending on where you are for l2) no oil changes, no belts, no muffler, no water pump etc. there is that big hit of the battery at once that many people won't plan for or be able to do. I seem to recall Prius battery packs getting cheaper and various options available I hope similar happens for BEVs but we don't have it yet. I would like to see BEVs be the dominant passenger car on the road but I wonder about what happens to them when the battery goes.

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And that's my concern. A car shouldn't be severely functionally compromised after just 8 years. Very few people would buy ICEs now if you told them they'd have to replace the powertrain after that time to allow the car to retain its original capabilities, given routine maintenance.

??
Now, as a middle a age fellow, we generally buy new out of part laziness. But when I was in my early 20s I had both a 7 year old used Honda accord and a Oldsmobile that within 2 years of purchase required engine rebuilds...kind of the same thing, isn't it?

Many 2012-2014 models S cars have had both motor and pack replacements.

On the same breath, many 2014 Leafs have plenty of life left and meet many people's use cases.

??
Now, as a middle a age fellow, we generally buy new out of part laziness. But when I was in my early 20s I had both a 7 year old used Honda accord and a Oldsmobile that within 2 years of purchase required engine rebuilds...kind of the same thing, isn't it?

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Not exactly. There's a reason Japanese car companies overtook U.S. companies in sales. Part was efficiency, but most of it was reliability.

Many 2012-2014 models S cars have had both motor and pack replacements.

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Uh huh, which is one reason I won't be buying a Tesla.

On the same breath, many 2014 Leafs have plenty of life left and meet many people's use cases.

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Which vehicle meets more people's use case - one which has the same capability as new, or one which has lost 30% or more of that capability? Which provides the better long-term value?

GRA said:

salyavin said:

All extremely respectable GRA. Is this why you do not own a BEV the price hit?

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Price/size/range/charging speed/lack of charging both local and on trips to the places I go/lack of AWD/lack of longevity.

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Potential owners are in a distribution. Those that have good home charging situation, drive mostly locally, have cheap electric rates, can afford to take risks on new technologies, and so on: these are at one end of the distribution, the likely current EV owners and the likely soon to be EV owners. Those that much rely on expensive public charging, mostly take long trips and don't drive much locally, have high electric rates and need the cheapest and lowest risk transportation are on the other end of the distribution. The last ICE drivers.

As far as I can tell, GRA is unlikely to be an EV owner anytime soon.

sub 40k may drop the model Y just. I guess the Ariya for the options you want AWD and such would be too much too when it comes out? Yea the LEAF does lack AWD and is not high clearance.

In Colorado (which I assume gets it's butt kicked by California though I have not driven a BEV over there yet) we have good charging to ski resorts and indeed much of the state I drive from Roxborough to Telluride again this week via Salida for charging, I have driven to breckenridge in winter.

On Honda, I drove a Honda Civic hatchback for 21 years, their engines due just fine at 200000-300000 mile range only reason it died is it was squished from both sides in an accident. Now I needed a water pump, muffler, belts, spark plugs, brakes, tires so it was by no means maintenance free but it was highly reliable. I also still have a prius over a decade old that the battery has not died yet it is also not burning oil or anything yet but it was suggested I change the water pump as they have a way of just dying and damaging the engine at my mileage. I do see other prius of the same vintage burning oil at the mechanic though, I suspect that they did not keep up with the maintenance schedule. I think mine is about 200k now. Our goal is to have the prius be our last "gas" car (it was pre plugin prius) we are planning on all BEV from here on out. My father on the other hand was a Chevy guy and they were always breaking my whole life, it does sound like current offerings particularly the Bolt are very good.

salyavin said:

On Honda, I drove a Honda Civic hatchback for 21 years, their engines due just fine at 200000-300000 mile range only reason it died is it was squished from both sides in an accident. Now I needed a water pump, muffler, belts, spark plugs, brakes, tires so it was by no means maintenance free but it was highly reliable. I also still have a prius over a decade old that the battery has not died yet it is also not burning oil or anything yet but it was suggested I change the water pump as they have a way of just dying and damaging the engine at my mileage. I do see other prius of the same vintage burning oil at the mechanic though, I suspect that they did not keep up with the maintenance schedule. I think mine is about 200k now. Our goal is to have the prius be our last "gas" car (it was pre plugin prius) we are planning on all BEV from here on out. My father on the other hand was a Chevy guy and they were always breaking my whole life, it does sound like current offerings particularly the Bolt are very good.

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I owned a 2004 Prius for 10 years and then my kids took ownership. Engine oil consumption can be thought of as a maintenance issue but specifically it tends to occur if the oil level gets too low and the engine gets hot. That is not so hard to cause because the sump only takes ~ 3.5 liters. The moral to this story is to check your engine oil level every ~ 3 months or so.

In my gen Prius the water pump to the inverter (not the engine) was prone to early failure. The replacement part is better quality. I swapped it out DIY for ~ $75 as preventive maintenance. You do have to burp the car after the swap.

Reliability was exceptional. I spent $75 in repairs over 180k miles. The single repair was the gear selector that turned flaky due to warped plastic inside its housing from the New Mexico heat.

WetEV said:

GRA said:

salyavin said:

All extremely respectable GRA. Is this why you do not own a BEV the price hit?

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Price/size/range/charging speed/lack of charging both local and on trips to the places I go/lack of AWD/lack of longevity.

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Potential owners are in a distribution. Those that have good home charging situation, drive mostly locally, have cheap electric rates, can afford to take risks on new technologies, and so on: these are at one end of the distribution, the likely current EV owners and the likely soon to be EV owners. Those that much rely on expensive public charging, mostly take long trips and don't drive much locally, have high electric rates and need the cheapest and lowest risk transportation are on the other end of the distribution. The last ICE drivers.

As far as I can tell, GRA is unlikely to be an EV owner anytime soon.

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For some definition of 'soon'. Put it this way, I'll be in a ZEV as soon as one meets my requirements, because unlike the average car buyer I'm strongly motivated to switch. But as you note, my use case dictates I won't be an Innovator* or Early Adopter, and probably not even Early Majority although I'd fall there or on the Early/Late Majority boundary if my usage in this case wasn't so skewed.

Depending on the specific tech I've been everything from an Early Adopter to a Laggard. I suspect I'll probably fall into the Late Majority for ZEVs, possibly even at the Late Majority/Laggard boundary although I sure hope I don't have to wait that long. I won't be a Laggard as I have no resistance to dumping ICEs/fossil fuels; quite the opposite.


* I've used the consumer categories from Geoffrey Moore's seminal"Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Consumers". For those who are unfamiliar with it, here's a summary: https://medium.com/west-stringfellow/crossing-the-chasm-summary-and-review-9cfafdac9180

From the above, here's how the Early and Late Majority are defined:

Early Majority are practical minded consumers. If a product seems useful, this group will try it. The Early Majority are cautious of fads.

Late Majority consumers wait for something to become well established. They don’t feel confident in their ability to deal with technology and often buy from big companies. . . .

The crack between the Early Majority and the Late Majority occurs because members of the former group are willing to learn a little about their technology in order to use it, while the latter won’t put energy into learning. For Late Majority consumers, the technology has to be intuitive and easy to use. . . .

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And I'll be back in a relationship as soon as I can find a Hollywood starlet who loves obese old men in poor health. :lol:

(All OT)

salyavin said:

sub 40k may drop the model Y just. I guess the Ariya for the options you want AWD and such would be too much too when it comes out? Yea the LEAF does lack AWD and is not high clearance.

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The Modely Y fails on price (and in other areas), as I'd need an LR AWD. The Ariya's the wrong body type, and there are other likely fails as well. As for the LEAF, aside from the items you mention, I won't buy a BEV that doesn't have ATM. Much of my driving is at high speeds on steep climbs/descents/in hot climates, and any current battery without ATM is likely to suffer much accelerated degradation in those conditions, even if I were unfamiliar with the LEAF's past history.

salyavin said:

In Colorado (which I assume gets it's butt kicked by California though I have not driven a BEV over there yet) we have good charging to ski resorts and indeed much of the state I drive from Roxborough to Telluride again this week via Salida for charging, I have driven to breckenridge in winter.

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Colorado has an excellent QC network plan for accessing rural areas in place, although they've been dilatory in getting the sites built. As of now, California has no such widespread network planned.

Ski resorts here are gradually adding charging, but as I'm a cross-country rather than downhill skier such chargers are, with rare exceptions, of no use to me. If you're going up to the Lake Tahoe area from the Bay Area, Drive the Arc provides a reasonable number of QCs enroute. As I prefer to do most of my skiing in the Yosemite area, and most of my hiking/backpacking/mountaineering there or from trailheads along U.S. 395, charging facilities along those routes are what I need, and they remain seriously lacking.

Some of us here (Paul Gipe, Dan Jones, me) who regularly visit these areas monitor the progress/lobby the companies and government agencies involved to get QCs along these routes. Here's Paul's recent experience at one of the most critical ones for southern Californians to access 395, the just opened EA site at Coso Junction: http://www.wind-works.org/cms/index...]=5838&cHash=b7c4beea60a62d8b23711adb57406280

The most critical current site for me, the CEC/Chargepoint one in Groveland on S.R. 120 on the way to Yosemite has been sitting untouched since last October, despite the chargers being in place then. And even though more than 4 million people visit Yosemite annually, this site will have just two QCs when it eventually does open - the Tesla SC site at the other end of town has seven chargers.

Despite my and other people constantly asking for one, there are as yet no plans to put QCs in at Lee Vining, where it provides access to/from 395 south of there (and is where I want to be able to reach un-recharged from home near sea level, 207 miles and 6,600+' of net elevation gain, crossing Tioga Pass @ 9,941', 194 miles out, for the life of the vehicle). As my 17.5 y.o. ICE can do the round trip un-refueled, we're talking about being willing to accept a 50% reduction in capability in a current BEV, while paying twice as much or more (out the door including dest , tax, license and everything else, my Forester cost me $24,344.74) for the privilege.

Very interesting, thank you.

I just wanted to mention that I have driven over mountains during high temperature and it in no way affects acceleration even when the battery is on the 2nd red temp bar after successive fast charges. Charging gets throttled and I doubt it is good for the car of course. I have no idea where you got the idea acceleration is affected.

salyavin said:

Very interesting, thank you.

I just wanted to mention that I have driven over mountains during high temperature and it in no way affects acceleration even when the battery is on the 2nd red temp bar after successive fast charges. Charging gets throttled and I doubt it is good for the car of course. I have no idea where you got the idea acceleration is affected.

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Not what I said. Battery degradation accelerates due to heat. High power draws/high regen cause heat as do high ambient temps, so I consider battery pack Active Thermal Management (ATM) to keep temps down (or up, in winter) essential for longevity and winter range purposes.

GRA said:

WetEV said:

As far as I can tell, GRA is unlikely to be an EV owner anytime soon.

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For some definition of 'soon'. Put it this way, I'll be in a ZEV as soon as one meets my requirements

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We definitely need a thread to move all the OT posts about why GRA is unlikely to be an EV owner anytime soon.

If you gathered them all together from over the years that would be a long topic, but at least I would know where to point people instead of having to re-explain for the umpteenth time!

Or, people could just accept up front without needing to hear chapter and verse that I have and continue to thoroughly examine the options, understand the tradeoffs and have concluded that switching doesn't make sense for me yet, much as I'd like to.

Nah, that's not going to happen.