danrjones
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:30 am

DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:18 am
It is interesting. The previous Hyundai Ionic was good, but both Kia and Hyundai strayed away from an efficiency perspective with the 5 and ev6.

Lucid appears to have built a very efficient car, that also performs, but it's a few years from main stream. My friend that was supposed to get his this week, was just told delivery is being pushed an indeterminate number of weeks.
Yes but Lucid air cost how much? I'm not saying the RWD entry level I5 is "affordable" for most Americans, but the Lucid Air is a whole other level of unaffordable. Don't get me wrong, I have some Lucid stock. But I'm not sure those are on the same playing field.
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gcrouse
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:00 pm

dmacarthur wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 5:35 am
Sure, Tesla has the lead in battery tech and drivetrain efficiency overall still - there's no doubt about it - but today's lead does not guarantee tomorrow's edge. As of today, nobody can tell precisely whose future battery tech will be the best.
It is amazing to me that Tesla continues to dominate in the efficiency factor- why are none of the newer entries (such as VW, Ariya, Volvo, Ford) able to get the same efficiencies? According to EPA, Tesla is still capable of driving considerably more miles per kWh and the real-world trials are bearing this out. Not necessarily a Tesla fan, but efficiency is one of the reasons we are here after all...
I think once you account for how long Tesla was doing R&D and working with real world data exclusively with EV drivetrains at a higher price point and figuring out how to make it cheaper to duplicate it makes a lot of sense. Most of the other companies at the time were aiming for a production balance at a price point when Tesla wasn't - which accounts for a decent chunk of the money burning in earlier years for Tesla.

Another factor would likely be drag coefficient. Tesla X/Y are built more like crossovers/cars, while XC40, Ariya, ID.4 are built more like SUVs with presumably the off road capability to match.

To an extent, i think we have to divorce our early adopter obsession with efficiency numbers from the broader public who isn't going to care as much if it's 110 mpge or 87 mpge as long as they get the range they want with the benefit of not paying gas prices for the vehicle type. I won't say it's a completely moot comparison but the difference between that and say 25-35mpg for a comparable vehicle almost becomes negligible comparing electric and gas as fuels.

LeftieBiker
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:03 pm

To an extent, i think we have to divorce our early adopter obsession with efficiency numbers from the broader public who isn't going to care as much if it's 110 mpge or 87 mpge as long as they get the range they want with the benefit of not paying gas prices for the vehicle type.
This. Volvo et al aren't selling based on test numbers, but on desired attributes.
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danrjones
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:48 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:03 pm
To an extent, i think we have to divorce our early adopter obsession with efficiency numbers from the broader public who isn't going to care as much if it's 110 mpge or 87 mpge as long as they get the range they want with the benefit of not paying gas prices for the vehicle type.
This. Volvo et al aren't selling based on test numbers, but on desired attributes.
The entry level Ford Lightning (I think) has a estimated mpge of 85, which sounds lousy compared to tesla, but would be a dream compared to a traditional f150 that gets upper teens to low twenties of actual mpg.
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jlv
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:27 am

gcrouse wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:00 pm
To an extent, i think we have to divorce our early adopter obsession with efficiency numbers from the broader public who isn't going to care as much if it's 110 mpge or 87 mpge as long as they get the range they want
I have never cared about MPGe, and I don't know what it is for any of the vehicles I bought or the ones I recently shopped for. Real world range is what counts, and MPGe doesn't tell me that.

Hey, I just looked it up. My LEAF has an MPGe of 115, and my Model S has one of 103. That truly is a totally worthless number.
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Nubo
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:36 am

dmacarthur wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 5:35 am
It is amazing to me that Tesla continues to dominate in the efficiency factor- why are none of the newer entries (such as VW, Ariya, Volvo, Ford) able to get the same efficiencies? According to EPA, Tesla is still capable of driving considerably more miles per kWh and the real-world trials are bearing this out. Not necessarily a Tesla fan, but efficiency is one of the reasons we are here after all...
Tesla started with a blank slate and the goal of making EVs, and were unburdened by the baggage-heavy prospect of adapting existing automotive design, facilities and executive thinking, to battery power. And they didn't settle for half-ass design compromises. They appear to have hit every EV ecosystem design consideration with full intent. From Supercharging, to aero to weight, battery design, lightweight castings, to development of an entirely new Aluminum alloy to enable complete body castings of unheard-of size, etc... Sandy Munro's teardown of Model Y was quite interesting. There are about 40 YT videos in the series; here is the summary

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOrrdqje9Og[/youtube]
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OldManCan
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:54 am

^^ Agreed. Also let's add to this list their leadership in the direct to consumer sales approach for the auto industry. IMHO that is one big whopper for all of us and I hope more companies will follow them on this. The dealership model is dead and we should move on.
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dgpcolorado
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:26 pm

OldManCan wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:54 am
^^ Agreed. Also let's add to this list their leadership in the direct to consumer sales approach for the auto industry. IMHO that is one big whopper for all of us and I hope more companies will follow them on this. The dealership model is dead and we should move on.
The counterargument to that is the problem of service. If you live and drive a Tesla only in a big city with a Tesla Service Center (or several) fine. However there are large swathes of the country where Service Centers are a long way away (I am 300 miles, and a whole lot of mountains, away from the nearest SC). Mobile Service helps for the little stuff but anything needing a lift requires getting to a Service Center that may be hundreds of miles away and if the car isn't driveable that means an expensive flatbed tow, unless under warranty. You can't take a Tesla down the street to a local auto mechanic; I will guess that will be much the same for other EV brands as well, at least for some years until they dominate the market.

In my view, this is an advantage of the the established car companies since they have dealers all over. Assuming that they can get them onboard with selling and servicing EVs, which is not the case in some places, so far.


Whenever people tout the new Lucid car I wonder where they are going to buy it and where they will take it when something breaks? It took Tesla many years to get to the current number of stores and service nodes and it still is pretty sparse in much of the country. What good is a decent DCFC network if your car breaks down five hundred or a thousand miles from the nearest Lucid Service Center? Lucid has a long way to go before it has the country covered with stores and service centers but nobody ever talks about that. I don't get it. Buying a Lucid car in this early stage is really rolling the dice unless you don't plan on ever venturing far from where the car can be fixed.
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LeftieBiker
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Jan 14, 2022 2:57 pm

I agree with the above. The problem isn't the idea of having dealerships for a brand. The problem is the horrible model used in the United States, with the dealers being independent entities who have only a working relationship with the car companies. This results in the usual spread of service and sales quality, from Excellent to Criminal. Car dealers need to be subsidiaries of their manufacturers, with full liability for their actions being held by those manufacturers. As it is, both the dealers and the manufacturers get to shrug and point fingers in each others' direction, each claiming that the other is to blame for a given problem.
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frontrangeleaf
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:38 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:
Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:26 pm
The counterargument to that is the problem of service. If you live and drive a Tesla only in a big city with a Tesla Service Center (or several) fine. However there are large swathes of the country where Service Centers are a long way away (I am 300 miles, and a whole lot of mountains, away from the nearest SC). Mobile Service helps for the little stuff but anything needing a lift requires getting to a Service Center that may be hundreds of miles away and if the car isn't driveable that means an expensive flatbed tow, unless under warranty. You can't take a Tesla down the street to a local auto mechanic; I will guess that will be much the same for other EV brands as well, at least for some years until they dominate the market.

In my view, this is an advantage of the the established car companies since they have dealers all over. Assuming that they can get them onboard with selling and servicing EVs, which is not the case in some places, so far.


Whenever people tout the new Lucid car I wonder where they are going to buy it and where they will take it when something breaks? It took Tesla many years to get to the current number of stores and service nodes and it still is pretty sparse in much of the country. What good is a decent DCFC network if your car breaks down five hundred or a thousand miles from the nearest Lucid Service Center? Lucid has a long way to go before it has the country covered with stores and service centers but nobody ever talks about that. I don't get it. Buying a Lucid car in this early stage is really rolling the dice unless you don't plan on ever venturing far from where the car can be fixed.
Agree. I can't see ever buying an expensive item like a car without some reasonable measure of local support. Tesla does OK where we live, but there are many other EVs sold primarily in compliance states that might have been interesting at the time we purchased our Leaf+, but for the lack of local support.

Heck, I've even had trouble finding Audi diesel rated oil in the mountains west of us. In Aspen, Colorado no less. Eventually I found a service shop that stocked it, but no auto parts store did (Car decided to flag it was low on oil while we were on a camping trip. Not fond of towing when low on oil... Now if the damn thing had a oil dipstick, I'd have discovered that sooner, but such is life. First world problems...)
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