danrjones
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

gcrouse wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:18 am
danrjones wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:28 am I believe there have been a few teardowns now on the I5 pack, but I don't know if anyone has dissected the SK pouch cell Hyundai is using. Nor do I buy the idea Hyundai has setup their EVs to fail...
IMO, Hyundai/Kia is probably Tesla's greatest threat to US market share at this point with the range, price point, charging capability, and biggest one - build quality, service locations, and meaningful warranty.
Even one of the biggest Tesla fanboy YouTube channels, Tesla Time News, recently did a whole episode on how terrible Tesla service / service centers are, and listed ways to improve. Beyond the obvious - like tripling the number of service centers, other ideas including using one whole quarter to produce nothing but spare parts, better customer service and training, etc. One example given was a woman who's model 3 came without a brake pad, literally. Then she was given the run around and had appointments cancelled to get it "fixed", then finally she got into a service center but they needed the car for a long period of time (no parts!) - so they gave her a Uber voucher to catch a ride home. Problem was, she lived hundreds of miles away. Yikes.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/43876/tes ... -brake-pad
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gcrouse
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

danrjones wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:44 am
gcrouse wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:18 am
danrjones wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:28 am I believe there have been a few teardowns now on the I5 pack, but I don't know if anyone has dissected the SK pouch cell Hyundai is using. Nor do I buy the idea Hyundai has setup their EVs to fail...
IMO, Hyundai/Kia is probably Tesla's greatest threat to US market share at this point with the range, price point, charging capability, and biggest one - build quality, service locations, and meaningful warranty.
Even one of the biggest Tesla fanboy YouTube channels, Tesla Time News, recently did a whole episode on how terrible Tesla service / service centers are, and listed ways to improve. Beyond the obvious - like tripling the number of service centers, other ideas including using one whole quarter to produce nothing but spare parts, better customer service and training, etc. One example given was a woman who's model 3 came without a brake pad, literally. Then she was given the run around and had appointments cancelled to get it "fixed", then finally she got into a service center but they needed the car for a long period of time (no parts!) - so they gave her a Uber voucher to catch a ride home. Problem was, she lived hundreds of miles away. Yikes.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/43876/tes ... -brake-pad
As much as people throw shade on the dealership model and traditional automakers when it comes to the EV market, I'm not entirely convinced the buy online/mobile service/OTA update/limited service center model is quite the disruption it's cracked up to be.

In Tesla's case, what people are finding out is that it's great in theory but it really requires a quality product from the get go - and what worked when Tesla was delivering less cars doesn't work so well when there's more cars leaving the factory with issues they should have never left the factory with - let alone the "someone hit your car?" Too bad - that's 6 months you'll have to wait for parts and it'll be expensive. I can't see that getting any better with Tesla planning to do the castings.

GM was proof that will the traditional automakers really want to sell EVs - they'll sell EVs. They pared down excess Cadillac dealers uninterested in selling them with buyouts, sold the Bolt at a $6k loss per unit upfront and wasn't far behind Tesla in the race to 200k. Then after they lost the credit they dropped MSRP and offered more incentives to move a vehicle they weren't going to make money on subsidized by more profitable lines. While the startups are going off the same model and Volvo/Geely is trying to go the same route with their electric models - i don't think there's a clear winner in models yet.

I think how much of a SNAFU the heat pump issue which is probably hardware/not software is really going to test the boundaries of Tesla's already strained ability to provide basic service you can get from other OEMs in a couple of weeks within several miles.
danrjones
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

gcrouse wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:22 am
danrjones wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:44 am
gcrouse wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:18 am

IMO, Hyundai/Kia is probably Tesla's greatest threat to US market share at this point with the range, price point, charging capability, and biggest one - build quality, service locations, and meaningful warranty.
Even one of the biggest Tesla fanboy YouTube channels, Tesla Time News, recently did a whole episode on how terrible Tesla service / service centers are, and listed ways to improve. Beyond the obvious - like tripling the number of service centers, other ideas including using one whole quarter to produce nothing but spare parts, better customer service and training, etc. One example given was a woman who's model 3 came without a brake pad, literally. Then she was given the run around and had appointments cancelled to get it "fixed", then finally she got into a service center but they needed the car for a long period of time (no parts!) - so they gave her a Uber voucher to catch a ride home. Problem was, she lived hundreds of miles away. Yikes.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/43876/tes ... -brake-pad
As much as people throw shade on the dealership model and traditional automakers when it comes to the EV market, I'm not entirely convinced the buy online/mobile service/OTA update/limited service center model is quite the disruption it's cracked up to be.

In Tesla's case, what people are finding out is that it's great in theory but it really requires a quality product from the get go - and what worked when Tesla was delivering less cars doesn't work so well when there's more cars leaving the factory with issues they should have never left the factory with - let alone the "someone hit your car?" Too bad - that's 6 months you'll have to wait for parts and it'll be expensive. I can't see that getting any better with Tesla planning to do the castings.

GM was proof that will the traditional automakers really want to sell EVs - they'll sell EVs. They pared down excess Cadillac dealers uninterested in selling them with buyouts, sold the Bolt at a $6k loss per unit upfront and wasn't far behind Tesla in the race to 200k. Then after they lost the credit they dropped MSRP and offered more incentives to move a vehicle they weren't going to make money on subsidized by more profitable lines. While the startups are going off the same model and Volvo/Geely is trying to go the same route with their electric models - i don't think there's a clear winner in models yet.

I think how much of a SNAFU the heat pump issue which is probably hardware/not software is really going to test the boundaries of Tesla's already strained ability to provide basic service you can get from other OEMs in a couple of weeks within several miles.
TESLA has a ton of cash, so its not like they couldn't spend a lot more money on building up their quality, more service stations, more mobile techs, far more parts inventory (though this would slow down production). Either they don't agree that they have an issue, don't realize they have an issue, or think its not that big of a deal.
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cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Indeed. They reported earnings today (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/26/tesla-t ... -2021.html) and had quite a profitable quarter and a fully profitable year.

As I've said elsewhere, it seems like the feedback loop is mostly broken w/Tesla. The wait times for new vehicles (esp. minimally configured) are crazy and tons of people are waiting for their cars. So, Elon and the company doesn't seem to care enough to do much about it. If they start seeing a significant slowdown in sales or sustained bad PR on this (or Elon suddenly realizes), then they might do something...



Tesla will not introduce the Cybertruck this year, and is not working on a $25,000 car now, says Musk
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/26/tesla-i ... -musk.html - "$25K" car news is no surprise to me.

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palmermd
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

cwerdna wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:19 pm Tesla will not introduce the Cybertruck this year, and is not working on a $25,000 car now, says Musk
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/26/tesla-i ... -musk.html - "$25K" car news is no surprise to me.
with regard to the not beginning to produce new models, he provided a reason. It is not that they do not want to build cybertruck, roadster, model 2 (or whatever they eventually call it). It is that all of these vehicles share the same chips, and chip shortage is the problem, so they are going to continue to run the existing product that they can build in volume rather than attempting to start up a new line that will run slower and take away the same chips, so this would only burden them with added cost, and not any additional production.
Elon via Fred Lambert wrote:Musk said that Tesla would not launch any new vehicle this year due to supply chain constrained. In a conference call following the release of its Q4 2021 financial results, the CEO explained that any new vehicle launch this year wouldn’t actually help Tesla deliver more total electric vehicles in 2022 since some parts shared between vehicles, especially chips, wouldn’t see more supply.
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gcrouse
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

palmermd wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:28 am
cwerdna wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:19 pm Tesla will not introduce the Cybertruck this year, and is not working on a $25,000 car now, says Musk
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/26/tesla-i ... -musk.html - "$25K" car news is no surprise to me.
with regard to the not beginning to produce new models, he provided a reason. It is not that they do not want to build cybertruck, roadster, model 2 (or whatever they eventually call it). It is that all of these vehicles share the same chips, and chip shortage is the problem, so they are going to continue to run the existing product that they can build in volume rather than attempting to start up a new line that will run slower and take away the same chips, so this would only burden them with added cost, and not any additional production.
Elon via Fred Lambert wrote:Musk said that Tesla would not launch any new vehicle this year due to supply chain constrained. In a conference call following the release of its Q4 2021 financial results, the CEO explained that any new vehicle launch this year wouldn’t actually help Tesla deliver more total electric vehicles in 2022 since some parts shared between vehicles, especially chips, wouldn’t see more supply.
I think the chip shortage is being used as a scapegoat to cover up the fact the 4680 cells that the new cars are designed to work with aren't nearly as close to production as previously announced.

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesl ... 79116.html
palmermd
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

gcrouse wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:32 am
palmermd wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:28 am
cwerdna wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:19 pm Tesla will not introduce the Cybertruck this year, and is not working on a $25,000 car now, says Musk
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/26/tesla-i ... -musk.html - "$25K" car news is no surprise to me.
with regard to the not beginning to produce new models, he provided a reason. It is not that they do not want to build cybertruck, roadster, model 2 (or whatever they eventually call it). It is that all of these vehicles share the same chips, and chip shortage is the problem, so they are going to continue to run the existing product that they can build in volume rather than attempting to start up a new line that will run slower and take away the same chips, so this would only burden them with added cost, and not any additional production.
Elon via Fred Lambert wrote:Musk said that Tesla would not launch any new vehicle this year due to supply chain constrained. In a conference call following the release of its Q4 2021 financial results, the CEO explained that any new vehicle launch this year wouldn’t actually help Tesla deliver more total electric vehicles in 2022 since some parts shared between vehicles, especially chips, wouldn’t see more supply.
I think the chip shortage is being used as a scapegoat to cover up the fact the 4680 cells that the new cars are designed to work with aren't nearly as close to production as previously announced.

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesl ... 79116.html
If you listen to the conference call that was also debunked by Elon and Andrew. He said that the 4680 battery production was not a limiting factor....in fact that question was the one that prompted him to say what was the limiting factor above...the chips. He said that they are going to be building and selling cars with the 4680 cells this quarter.
"Andrew Baglino" wrote:or to say differently, 4680 cells are not a constraint to our 2022 volume plans, based on the information we have. But we are making meaningful progress of the ramp curve in Kato. We're building 4680 structural packs every day, which are being assembled into vehicles in Texas. I was driving one yesterday and the day before. And we believe our first 4680 vehicles will be delivered this quarter.
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palmermd
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

gcrouse wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:32 am
palmermd wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:28 am
cwerdna wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:19 pm Tesla will not introduce the Cybertruck this year, and is not working on a $25,000 car now, says Musk
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/26/tesla-i ... -musk.html - "$25K" car news is no surprise to me.
with regard to the not beginning to produce new models, he provided a reason. It is not that they do not want to build cybertruck, roadster, model 2 (or whatever they eventually call it). It is that all of these vehicles share the same chips, and chip shortage is the problem, so they are going to continue to run the existing product that they can build in volume rather than attempting to start up a new line that will run slower and take away the same chips, so this would only burden them with added cost, and not any additional production.
Elon via Fred Lambert wrote:Musk said that Tesla would not launch any new vehicle this year due to supply chain constrained. In a conference call following the release of its Q4 2021 financial results, the CEO explained that any new vehicle launch this year wouldn’t actually help Tesla deliver more total electric vehicles in 2022 since some parts shared between vehicles, especially chips, wouldn’t see more supply.
I think the chip shortage is being used as a scapegoat to cover up the fact the 4680 cells that the new cars are designed to work with aren't nearly as close to production as previously announced.

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesl ... 79116.html
If you listen to the conference call that was also debunked by Elon and Andrew. He said that the 4680 battery production was not a limiting factor....in fact that question was the one that prompted him to say what was the limiting factor above...the chips. He said that they are going to be building and selling cars with the 4680 cells this quarter.
"Andrew Baglino" wrote:or to say differently, 4680 cells are not a constraint to our 2022 volume plans, based on the information we have. But we are making meaningful progress of the ramp curve in Kato. We're building 4680 structural packs every day, which are being assembled into vehicles in Texas. I was driving one yesterday and the day before. And we believe our first 4680 vehicles will be delivered this quarter.
Michael

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Driving electric since 1996


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palmermd
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

gcrouse wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:32 am
palmermd wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:28 am
cwerdna wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:19 pm Tesla will not introduce the Cybertruck this year, and is not working on a $25,000 car now, says Musk
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/26/tesla-i ... -musk.html - "$25K" car news is no surprise to me.
with regard to the not beginning to produce new models, he provided a reason. It is not that they do not want to build cybertruck, roadster, model 2 (or whatever they eventually call it). It is that all of these vehicles share the same chips, and chip shortage is the problem, so they are going to continue to run the existing product that they can build in volume rather than attempting to start up a new line that will run slower and take away the same chips, so this would only burden them with added cost, and not any additional production.
Elon via Fred Lambert wrote:Musk said that Tesla would not launch any new vehicle this year due to supply chain constrained. In a conference call following the release of its Q4 2021 financial results, the CEO explained that any new vehicle launch this year wouldn’t actually help Tesla deliver more total electric vehicles in 2022 since some parts shared between vehicles, especially chips, wouldn’t see more supply.
I think the chip shortage is being used as a scapegoat to cover up the fact the 4680 cells that the new cars are designed to work with aren't nearly as close to production as previously announced.

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesl ... 79116.html
If you listen to the conference call that was also debunked by Elon and Andrew. He said that the 4680 battery production was not a limiting factor....in fact that question was the one that prompted him to say what was the limiting factor above...the chips. He said that they are going to be building and selling cars with the 4680 cells this quarter.
"Andrew Baglino" wrote:or to say differently, 4680 cells are not a constraint to our 2022 volume plans, based on the information we have. But we are making meaningful progress of the ramp curve in Kato. We're building 4680 structural packs every day, which are being assembled into vehicles in Texas. I was driving one yesterday and the day before. And we believe our first 4680 vehicles will be delivered this quarter.
Michael

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Driving electric since 1996


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gcrouse
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

palmermd wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:12 am
gcrouse wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:32 am
palmermd wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:28 am

with regard to the not beginning to produce new models, he provided a reason. It is not that they do not want to build cybertruck, roadster, model 2 (or whatever they eventually call it). It is that all of these vehicles share the same chips, and chip shortage is the problem, so they are going to continue to run the existing product that they can build in volume rather than attempting to start up a new line that will run slower and take away the same chips, so this would only burden them with added cost, and not any additional production.

I think the chip shortage is being used as a scapegoat to cover up the fact the 4680 cells that the new cars are designed to work with aren't nearly as close to production as previously announced.

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesl ... 79116.html
If you listen to the conference call that was also debunked by Elon and Andrew. He said that the 4680 battery production was not a limiting factor....in fact that question was the one that prompted him to say what was the limiting factor above...the chips. He said that they are going to be building and selling cars with the 4680 cells this quarter.
"Andrew Baglino" wrote:or to say differently, 4680 cells are not a constraint to our 2022 volume plans, based on the information we have. But we are making meaningful progress of the ramp curve in Kato. We're building 4680 structural packs every day, which are being assembled into vehicles in Texas. I was driving one yesterday and the day before. And we believe our first 4680 vehicles will be delivered this quarter.
When it comes to Elon Musk claims I generally don't take them at face value considering he's committed fraud before, or any other number of claims he's made over the years that were blatantly false to drive investment. I'll believe it when it's third party confirmed.

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