OldManCan said:
Quite frankly I see this as TESLA starting to focus on what drives the growth. When the initial emotional knee jerk reactions subside I believe the street will see this as a more positive direction.
Cybertruck is fun and and exciting but will not sell in millions driving the growth of the company. Tesla made a choice early on not pumping out a run of the mill EV truck and took a pass on mass market in this segment. What we are seeing is simply an alignment in market positioning with the revenue priority.
Semi is awesome and will change the future of ground transportation but let's face it, the amount of battery capacity that will be needed to build each Semi can probably make 3-4 Tesla cars which as a result can bring more revenue growth. Charging infrastructure is also not yet ready for this large paradigm shift.
IMHO, Tesla is behaving more grown up as a company compared to before and now folks are having withdrawals from the past excitement. Let's focus on the positive... multiple GigaFactories, the GigaPress and the move to structural battery design. There is so much to be happy about if you're a shareholder. As for the current dip, buy more while you can! ;-)
I agree to an extent on Tesla starting to grow up a bit and on growth. Once they get the factories online that should help them meet demand - but without them doubling down on improving build quality - i think competition is going to start eating their market share in a way that's more adverse than just losing market share due to more options.
Gigapress is a mixed bag to me - i think it would help in terms of quality but given the up to 6 month wait for repair parts for vehicles in collisions - I'd be concerned about what the effect on those sort of situations would be and cost to insure.
I think not focusing on getting Cybertruck out the door was a strategic blunder. The US truck and SUV market is the most profitable and they would have had a distinct advantage being first out the gate. Rivian has managed to get out the door first (and will have its own problems ramping up production) but Ford is going to pull ahead quicker since they have lots of experience in manufacturing. With the current Cybertruck timeline - GM and maybe even Stellantis are going to get their trucks out the door first - leaving people with options to cancel their reservations to get a truck from a competitor.
Semi becomes a lot less impressive when you take into consideration that Peterbilt, Freightliner, and others are already delivering trucks in that field that are fully electric. In practical terms - that means they are gathering real world data from fleets to refine and build next generation products when Tesla's initial product in the field is either vaporware or in limited trial phase depending on how you view it.
The lack of product roadmap does become a very real concern for long term outlook - No amount of OTA updates and on the fly changes is a substitute for new models over time. Tesla can certainly capture plenty of brand as a lifestyle people like Apple does - but come 2024, what makes the Model Y substantially more compelling than the Mach-E, EV6, I5, or Chrysler Airflow?
Tesla's biggest liability is it's FSD package. Tesla's lofty valuation hasn't been divorced from the constant claims that it's perpetually going to be available next year - including in the last earnings call. The potential fallout from the failure to deliver something above Level 2 automation is a significant risk factor, especially given Mercedes hit Level 3 first. The blow there with significant fall out has the possibility to finally do in Musk's somewhat dodgy credibility he still retains with his many broken promises.
I think if Tesla keeps moving towards focusing on the basics and doubles down on fixing build quality and meaningfully rolling out products they'll be alright - but i think they are at a critical junction where they will either cement themselves as a solid competitor in the field they were leading in or slowly become a minor player as more skilled manufacturers make progress.
