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Devin
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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:27 am

GRA wrote:Seems to me, for someone who wants to push the transition to EVs or is just into tech, needs long freeway driving range (especially in winter) and fast refueling, but can't afford a Tesla and doesn't want a PHEV, this is a reasonable option, certainly a better value than a $50k RAV4 EV with half the range or less. Obviously it's still fugly, and you have to live somewhere there's fueling infrastructure, but since all the FCV manufacturers are restricting sales/leases to areas which have same, that shouldn't be a major issue.
RAV4 EVs have been going for about $35k after rebates and incentives for the last year or so. I drove my RAV4 EV to Utah, which would be impossible to do in a Mirai.

I fail to see how a $57k Corolla-Prius mashup that depends on 13 fueling stations in the entire country is a good value for anyone. If an EV doesn't meet your needs and you really want to get off petrol, you'd be much better off looking at a Civic GX for less than half the cost of a Mirai and with significantly more infrastructure availability.
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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Tue Nov 18, 2014 5:35 pm

Devin wrote:
GRA wrote:Seems to me, for someone who wants to push the transition to EVs or is just into tech, needs long freeway driving range (especially in winter) and fast refueling, but can't afford a Tesla and doesn't want a PHEV, this is a reasonable option, certainly a better value than a $50k RAV4 EV with half the range or less. Obviously it's still fugly, and you have to live somewhere there's fueling infrastructure, but since all the FCV manufacturers are restricting sales/leases to areas which have same, that shouldn't be a major issue.
RAV4 EVs have been going for about $35k after rebates and incentives for the last year or so. I drove my RAV4 EV to Utah, which would be impossible to do in a Mirai.
Sure, and they still have MSRPs of $50k before subsidies. Either include the subsidies on both cars, or as I did exclude them on both.
Devin wrote: I fail to see how a $57k Corolla-Prius mashup that depends on 13 fueling stations in the entire country is a good value for anyone. If an EV doesn't meet your needs and you really want to get off petrol, you'd be much better off looking at a Civic GX for less than half the cost of a Mirai and with significantly more infrastructure availability.
While I'm in complete agreement that it's not going to win any points on looks, the car isn't going to have to depend on "13 fueling stations in the entire country", as it will be sold/leased exclusively in California to start. As has been covered extensively in the Hydrogen/fuel cell thread, Toyota alone is subsidizing 18 stations in California which will open before this car becomes available (the state is subsidizing up to 100 over the next few years, but IIRR will have 50-something by next October). The FCV manufacturers all plan to only sell/lease cars to people within 6 minutes of a fueling station, making sure the vehicle will be a good fit. As to its cost, sure it's still too expensive and impossible to justify economically now. So what? Outside of limited situations, the same can be said for pretty much any BEV four years in despite their subsidies, especially with current gas prices, and I defy anyone to justify the introduction of the first gen Prius at a time of $1.50/gal. gas.
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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Tue Nov 18, 2014 6:24 pm

GRA wrote:
Devin wrote:
GRA wrote:Seems to me, for someone who wants to push the transition to EVs or is just into tech, needs long freeway driving range (especially in winter) and fast refueling, but can't afford a Tesla and doesn't want a PHEV, this is a reasonable option, certainly a better value than a $50k RAV4 EV with half the range or less. Obviously it's still fugly, and you have to live somewhere there's fueling infrastructure, but since all the FCV manufacturers are restricting sales/leases to areas which have same, that shouldn't be a major issue.
RAV4 EVs have been going for about $35k after rebates and incentives for the last year or so. I drove my RAV4 EV to Utah, which would be impossible to do in a Mirai.
Sure, and they still have MSRPs of $50k before subsidies. Either include the subsidies on both cars, or as I did exclude them on both.
Okay, Toyota has used $17,500 lease cash for some time (over $18k in NorCal) and it's impossible to purchase a RAV4 EV for MSRP. Remove the $7,500 federal rebate and you get a $10,000 discount, bringing the real price to $40k vs $57k for a Mirai. Toyota is selling the RAV4 EV for $40k. Period. We're still $17,000 apart here.
GRA wrote:
Devin wrote: I fail to see how a $57k Corolla-Prius mashup that depends on 13 fueling stations in the entire country is a good value for anyone. If an EV doesn't meet your needs and you really want to get off petrol, you'd be much better off looking at a Civic GX for less than half the cost of a Mirai and with significantly more infrastructure availability.
While I'm in complete agreement that it's not going to win any points on looks, the car isn't going to have to depend on "13 fueling stations in the entire country", as it will be sold/leased exclusively in California to start. As has been covered extensively in the Hydrogen/fuel cell thread, Toyota alone is subsidizing 18 stations in California which will open before this car becomes available (the state is subsidizing up to 100 over the next few years, but IIRR will have 50-something by next October). The FCV manufacturers all plan to only sell/lease cars to people within 6 minutes of a fueling station, making sure the vehicle will be a good fit. As to its cost, sure it's still too expensive and impossible to justify economically now. So what? Outside of limited situations, the same can be said for pretty much any BEV four years in despite their subsidies, especially with current gas prices, and I defy anyone to justify the introduction of the first gen Prius at a time of $1.50/gal. gas, either.
We're four years in and we're only just now seeing proper roll out of CHAdeMO stations, which are considerably easier to build than hydrogen fueling stations. The Prius, when it was introduced, could get that $1.50/gal gas from anywhere. BEVs can charge at tons of public L2 stations and thousands of public L3 stations today. Even if Toyota follows through with it's 18 additional stations, that still limits the car to California metropolitan areas. You still can't drive it to Utah.

This effort just continues to show that Toyota has no interest in making ZEVs (electric or otherwise), as has been proven with the RAV4 EV. People should see the Mirai for what it is, another compliance car aimed at getting CARB off of Toyota's back. It's an even less compelling product than the RAV4 EV.

If you really want a laugh, head to the Mirai fuel page and take a look at the part that says "We believe a promising way to power the next generation of vehicles is with a diverse range of fuels" and then lists Hybrid, Fuel Cell, and Electric underneath. Greenwashing at its finest.
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smkettner
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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Tue Nov 18, 2014 6:48 pm

Being in Southern California... My biggest reason to have 300 miles range is to get to Las Vegas.
How is that going to work? Will CA put an H2 station out there at the lottery shack at the state line?
I think I am with Devin on this one.
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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:11 pm

Devin wrote:
GRA wrote:
Devin wrote: RAV4 EVs have been going for about $35k after rebates and incentives for the last year or so. I drove my RAV4 EV to Utah, which would be impossible to do in a Mirai.

Sure, and they still have MSRPs of $50k before subsidies. Either include the subsidies on both cars, or as I did exclude them on both.
Okay, Toyota has used $17,500 lease cash for some time (over $18k in NorCal) and it's impossible to purchase a RAV4 EV for MSRP. Remove the $7,500 federal rebate and you get a $10,000 discount, bringing the real price to $40k vs $57k for a Mirai. Toyota is selling the RAV4 EV for $40k. Period. We're still $17,000 apart here.
Uh huh, and just why does Toyota have to put that much money on the table? That's just Toyota rather than the government subsidizing the car in order to sell enough, because they can't sell them at MSRP even with government subsidies. It remains to be seen if they'll have to subsidize the Mirai even more than they've already done to get the price down to $57.5k.

So, $50k MSRP for the RAV4EV, minus $10k fed and state subsidies, is $40k for (let's be generous and call it) 125 miles range under good but not ideal conditions. Toyota is claiming 300 miles for the Mirai, but let's be conservative and assume that it's really the same as the Tucson, or 265 miles. Further, let's assume that the federal $8k for FCEVs goes away at the end of this year; I have serious doubts that an extension will get through this congress. So, $52.5k including California's $5k, or an extra $12.5k to more than double the range, and possibly close to triple it in cold weather, essentially equaling the type of capability people have come to expect from a car. Worth it for many? Nope, but then early adopters are always a small subset of buyers, and for those who can't afford the $73,070 MSRP of a base S 60 plus SC capability (minus $10k, so $63,070), it's getting them into a long range AFV for $10,570 less than a Tesla).
Devin wrote:
GRA wrote:
Devin wrote: I fail to see how a $57k Corolla-Prius mashup that depends on 13 fueling stations in the entire country is a good value for anyone. If an EV doesn't meet your needs and you really want to get off petrol, you'd be much better off looking at a Civic GX for less than half the cost of a Mirai and with significantly more infrastructure availability.
While I'm in complete agreement that it's not going to win any points on looks, the car isn't going to have to depend on "13 fueling stations in the entire country", as it will be sold/leased exclusively in California to start. As has been covered extensively in the Hydrogen/fuel cell thread, Toyota alone is subsidizing 18 stations in California which will open before this car becomes available (the state is subsidizing up to 100 over the next few years, but IIRR will have 50-something by next October). The FCV manufacturers all plan to only sell/lease cars to people within 6 minutes of a fueling station, making sure the vehicle will be a good fit. As to its cost, sure it's still too expensive and impossible to justify economically now. So what? Outside of limited situations, the same can be said for pretty much any BEV four years in despite their subsidies, especially with current gas prices, and I defy anyone to justify the introduction of the first gen Prius at a time of $1.50/gal. gas, either.
We're four years in and we're only just now seeing proper roll out of CHAdeMO stations, which are considerably easier to build than hydrogen fueling stations. The Prius, when it was introduced, could get that $1.50/gal gas from anywhere. BEVs can charge at tons of public L2 stations and thousands of public L3 stations today. Even if Toyota follows through with it's 18 additional stations, that still limits the car to California metropolitan areas. You still can't drive it to Utah.
That's true, at the moment. But then, I rarely drive to Utah (although I enjoy it when I do), but I do often drive up to Tahoe, and I will be able to do that when the car is released, non-stop if I wish, refueling in Truckee. I will also be able to drive to LA with a single 3-5 minute stop, should I need to (being a native Northern Californian, other than a trip to the mouse I haven't driven to SoCal for over twenty years, nor do I have any desire to do so). To do a similar trip in a BEV in a similar amount of time will cost me at least $10k and probably $18k more (for an S 85; see above), and even so will take at least 45 minutes longer.
Devin wrote: This effort just continues to show that Toyota has no interest in making ZEVs (electric or otherwise), as has been proven with the RAV4 EV. People should see the Mirai for what it is, another compliance car aimed at getting CARB off of Toyota's back. It's an even less compelling product than the RAV4 EV.

If you really want a laugh, head to the Mirai fuel page and take a look at the part that says "We believe a promising way to power the next generation of vehicles is with a diverse range of fuels" and then lists Hybrid, Fuel Cell, and Electric underneath. Greenwashing at its finest.
Cynical much? Toyota is involved in making and selling BEVs (you did see the announcement of their new BEV subbrand in China, the world's largest auto market? http://gas2.org/2014/10/20/toyota-launc ... and-china/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ), FCEVs and HEVs, and continues development in all three areas. They happen to believe that at their current stage of development, BEVs are a poor fit for the mainstream U.S. market. I happen to agree with them, but that's neither here or there. It remains to be seen whether batteries or fuel cells develop more rapidly to the point where batteries, fuel cells or both can become mainstream here. At the moment their money (several billion dollars, to date) is on fuel cells (but they continue work on solid-state batteries), and I have no idea if they're right. I'm not betting against them - they took a similar long-term view with the Prius, a car initially lacking in every single desirable quality of a car other than gas mileage, and which was totally lacking in U.S. mass market viability at the time, and waited for conditions to change while they made improvements. We'll see if history repeats itself.
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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:03 pm

but then early adopters are always a small subset of buyers, and for those who can't afford the $73,070 MSRP of a base S 60 plus SC capability (minus $10k, so $63,070), it's getting them into a long range AFV for $10,570 less than a Tesla).
I'm going to guess that folks will continue to buy Tesla at several hundred to one ratio over ALL hydrogen cars combined.

Also, folks will continue to enjoy "free forever" travel coast to coast as they do today.

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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:53 am

Devin wrote:We're four years in and we're only just now seeing proper roll out of CHAdeMO stations
IMO, we're still not seeing a proper roll out of DCQC stations. When we start seeing 3-4 QC stations per location (preferably each with both a CHAdeMO and Combo plug since the i3 appears to actually be selling in decent numbers at least) along with 3-4 30A+ L2 stations (for the PHEVs and for backup/overflow for the QC stations), we'll start seeing a proper DCQC rollout. So far the only proper charging station rollout is Tesla's.

While there may be enough scattered CHAdeMO stations about to avoid getting stranded, it's still far from convenient once you factor in charging station reliability, ICEing and the odds of getting to a location and finding all plugs in use.

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Re: Official Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Wed Nov 19, 2014 6:04 pm

smkettner wrote:Being in Southern California... My biggest reason to have 300 miles range is to get to Las Vegas.
How is that going to work? Will CA put an H2 station out there at the lottery shack at the state line?
I think I am with Devin on this one.
If the demand is there, sure. The people who will be getting FCEVs in the near future will be many of the same well-heeled demo as Tesla owners, and opening up the route to Vegas (and putting an SC there) happened fairly early. Why wouldn't the casinos want to attract them? I know of no early plans to put an H2 station along the I-15 corridor, but the CAFCP map shows planned stations in Ontario and Riverside, so the obvious expansion would be Barstow and Vegas, or maybe Baker or Stateline service at Cima Road to keep it inside California (as the state is subsidizing many of these). But there's nothing stopping one of the Casinos from installing an H2 fueling station in Vegas.

It's also possible that you wouldn't need a station in between Ontario and Vegas, as it's 234 miles one way; Riverside-Vegas is similar, about 238 miles. But given high winds, A/C and the climb over the two passes that's probably cutting it too tight, depending on what the specific FCV's range is. At least, until I knew a lot more about the car's capabilities in different conditions. The Tucson's credited with 265 miles EPA, and I'd be hesitant to count on making that leg non-stop unless I drove slower than the traffic flow. If the Mirai gets rated for 300 miles highway or more, then that would work most of the time. I see that evtripplanner says that a base Tesla S 60 will use 283 rated miles from Ontario-Vegas cruising at 70 most of the way, 266 rated miles coming back, and that's in benign (no HVAC, no wind, 72 deg.) conditions.
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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Wed Nov 19, 2014 6:11 pm

drees wrote:
Devin wrote:We're four years in and we're only just now seeing proper roll out of CHAdeMO stations
IMO, we're still not seeing a proper roll out of DCQC stations. When we start seeing 3-4 QC stations per location (preferably each with both a CHAdeMO and Combo plug since the i3 appears to actually be selling in decent numbers at least) along with 3-4 30A+ L2 stations (for the PHEVs and for backup/overflow for the QC stations), we'll start seeing a proper DCQC rollout. So far the only proper charging station rollout is Tesla's.

While there may be enough scattered CHAdeMO stations about to avoid getting stranded, it's still far from convenient once you factor in charging station reliability, ICEing and the odds of getting to a location and finding all plugs in use.
+1. There's only one QC network in this country at the moment that's even close to being a real, practical one, and it sure as hell isn't CHAdeMO or CCS.
Since Tesla, although well behind where they said they would be by now, was still able to accomplish far more than anyone else in less than 2.5 years, it's obvious that major FCV companies combined with government can accomplish far more more quickly, if they want to. As it is, there will be a much better H2 refueling network in California for trips by the time the Mirai hits the market than any BEV to date has had at the time of its introduction.
Last edited by GRA on Wed Nov 19, 2014 6:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Wed Nov 19, 2014 6:15 pm

RegGuheert/Mods: Now that the car has been named, shouldn't we change the thread name to "Official Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell Sedan thread" or somesuch?
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The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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