SageBrush
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:40 am

Small correction: Supercharger access is 20 cents a kWh in California, but it varies by state. I'll pay about 13 cents a kWh in Colorado
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
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11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:05 am

SageBrush wrote:Small correction: Supercharger access is 20 cents a kWh in California, but it varies by state. I'll pay about 13 cents a kWh in Colorado
Major correction:

Whatever are the teaser rates it has announced, TSLA's only commitment to model 3 buyers is that it will impose whatever fees it wants to for charging at its DC sites.
no condition is permanent

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Nubo
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:30 am

lpickup wrote:...But it's simply a non-starter due to lack of adequate quick charging capability and infrastructure. So yes, the Bolt may (or may not) come in cheaper than the Model 3, and the LEAF 2 certainly will, but it simply won't do what I need it to, so from a value perspective, unfortunately it drops down to 0. If a truly capable, 150kW CCS charging infrastructure were to appear tomorrow, I would be able to consider the Bolt, and between my indifference of certain "luxury-like" features of the Model 3, and actual distaste of some Model 3 design choices (e.g. lack of a key fob), the Bolt would very much be in the running. But for now there is only one horse in the game still.
Good point. The supercharging standard and network is probably where Tesla is still the furthest ahead of the rest of the industry and it's not because of groundbreaking technology, but clear thinking, guts and commitment. They didn't wait around for "standards bodies" and were building a real viable network while SAE were still examining their navels and pondering how to subvert ChaDeMo.

Sooner or later EVs are going to have to coalesce around a single standard. It'll be interesting to see if Tesla's leadership here is enough to overcome the Leviathans. I still think Nissan should recognize the writing on the wall, forsake ChaDeMo outside of Japan, and forge an alliance with Tesla for supercharging. If executed properly the others would fall in line I think.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:43 am

edatoakrun wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Small correction: Supercharger access is 20 cents a kWh in California, but it varies by state. I'll pay about 13 cents a kWh in Colorado
Major correction:

Whatever are the teaser rates it has announced, TSLA's only commitment to model 3 buyers is that it will impose whatever fees it wants to for charging at its DC sites.
Tesla will likely never play that game and they have stated that they will never make them profit centers. This is not the companies philosophy, the same way Musk opened his patents. I just see that as a non issue. The model S has fees as well now. The SC network is simply brilliant and I expect it to always cost less and be superior for a very long time.

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:44 am

Nubo wrote:
lpickup wrote:...But it's simply a non-starter due to lack of adequate quick charging capability and infrastructure. So yes, the Bolt may (or may not) come in cheaper than the Model 3, and the LEAF 2 certainly will, but it simply won't do what I need it to, so from a value perspective, unfortunately it drops down to 0. If a truly capable, 150kW CCS charging infrastructure were to appear tomorrow, I would be able to consider the Bolt, and between my indifference of certain "luxury-like" features of the Model 3, and actual distaste of some Model 3 design choices (e.g. lack of a key fob), the Bolt would very much be in the running. But for now there is only one horse in the game still.
Good point. The supercharging standard and network is probably where Tesla is still the furthest ahead of the rest of the industry and it's not because of groundbreaking technology, but clear thinking, guts and commitment. They didn't wait around for "standards bodies" and were building a real viable network while SAE were still examining their navels and pondering how to subvert ChaDeMo.

Sooner or later EVs are going to have to coalesce around a single standard. It'll be interesting to see if Tesla's leadership here is enough to overcome the Leviathans. I still think Nissan should recognize the writing on the wall, forsake ChaDeMo outside of Japan, and forge an alliance with Tesla for supercharging. If executed properly the others would fall in line I think.

I hope Nissan does not:)

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:49 am

SageBrush wrote:Small correction: Supercharger access is 20 cents a kWh in California, but it varies by state. I'll pay about 13 cents a kWh in Colorado
Lucky you!

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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:50 am

EVDRIVER wrote:Based on this is will remain this way a long time IMO. Even if DC grows out who will do it?
Definitely. When I see the first 10-20 8+ stall 150kW CCS chargers placed at strategic sites (not just city centers or at dealerships with no nearby amenities), I think we are looking at 3-5 years best case before the network reaches a minimally acceptable level. Bears are fond of saying that it's just a "simple" matter of replicating the SC network but it simply takes time to select sites, acquire rights to build, get permits and actually construct and provision the sites. Even if someone were to throw a whole boatload of money at it, you can do so much in parallel, and all these steps take time.

Who will do it? I do think that ultimately car makers will realize that without a workable charging network they will simply not be able to eat into Tesla's market share. So they will do it. I'm not necessarily a fan of automakers controlling charging networks (even Tesla, but at least in their case I can understand why), so I am hoping the way they do it is to subsidize existing independent networks like evGO, Greenlots, etc. But how exactly it will play out is anyone's guess.
...Lance

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lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:13 am

lpickup wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:Based on this is will remain this way a long time IMO. Even if DC grows out who will do it?
Definitely. When I see the first 10-20 8+ stall 150kW CCS chargers placed at strategic sites (not just city centers or at dealerships with no nearby amenities), I think we are looking at 3-5 years best case before the network reaches a minimally acceptable level. Bears are fond of saying that it's just a "simple" matter of replicating the SC network but it simply takes time to select sites, acquire rights to build, get permits and actually construct and provision the sites. Even if someone were to throw a whole boatload of money at it, you can do so much in parallel, and all these steps take time.

Who will do it? I do think that ultimately car makers will realize that without a workable charging network they will simply not be able to eat into Tesla's market share. So they will do it. I'm not necessarily a fan of automakers controlling charging networks (even Tesla, but at least in their case I can understand why), so I am hoping the way they do it is to subsidize existing independent networks like evGO, Greenlots, etc. But how exactly it will play out is anyone's guess.
Some still fail to see the "forest vs the trees"! Even based on the minor availability of charging stations even with the SCs, the typical ICEV
consumer still perceives the abundance of gas stations and a "six minute recharge" as the preference. This not only limits Tesla growth
but also the overall BEV market. A perfect example is the sales of the Bolt, it's overall a very good BEV with a range that should fit most
consumer needs, but yet it hasn't sold well. The M3 availability in the low end of the BEV market won't change this in the near term.
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Zythryn
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:14 am

edatoakrun wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Small correction: Supercharger access is 20 cents a kWh in California, but it varies by state. I'll pay about 13 cents a kWh in Colorado
Major correction:

Whatever are the teaser rates it has announced, TSLA's only commitment to model 3 buyers is that it will impose whatever fees it wants to for charging at its DC sites.
You are just too much sometimes.
These are the rates that are charged. Model 3 owners have already been charged, and paid for SuperChargers.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
Current owner of Model 3
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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:39 am

lorenfb wrote: Some still fail to see the "forest vs the trees"! Even based on the minor availability of charging stations even with the SCs, the typical ICEV
consumer still perceives the abundance of gas stations and a "six minute recharge" as the preference. This not only limits Tesla growth
but also the overall BEV market. A perfect example is the sales of the Bolt, it's overall a very good BEV with a range that should fit most
consumer needs, but yet it hasn't sold well. The M3 availability in the low end of the BEV market won't change this in the near term.
Very interesting. Just read a Seeking Alpha report on how the LEAF 2 is going to steal market share away from Model 3 because apparently there is a tremendous demand for medium range urban commuters and second vehicles that don't need any of that fancy Supercharging rubbish.

Well I think the truth is probably in the middle: there are some stubborn people who will refuse to get any vehicle without a six minute recharge, but likely not enough to dampen demand for the Model 3's 1-2 year backlog. And yet buyers will want some level of ability to take the car on a road trip that currently the Bolt and LEAF 2 simply don't offer.
...Lance

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Coulis Red 2016 SV (312310) (bought: 12/23/16 sold: 7/5/18)
Glacier Pearl 2012 SL (016138) (delivered: 12/9/11; traded in 12/23/16)
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