Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 686
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:48 am

lorenfb wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: Besides, the math is already there. The fact that people don't apply it now doesn't mean they won't realize it later.
You're sure the typical auto consumers are on the verge of an epiphany, i.e. will very soon abandon their appeal for an ICEV, right?
And those here in SoCal with F150s will soon trade for a M3. Please!

By the way, why do I see so many M3s stored in a lot on Culver Blvd near the Marina, across from the Tesla distribution center?
Those M3s have been there since the 1/1. Tesla having a problem "moving" M3s in Q1?
Ha Ha Ha! You've definitely been listening to the wrong people. You mean these: https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/co ... ope_first/

They've already gone onto the Glovis CAPTAIN (here's tracking info from KarenRei, who's a very informed poster): https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/3328350/

There's another ship (Glovis COSMOS) coming by to pick up the next shipment. Tesla is trying to send 3000 model 3's to europe per week (out of their 6000/week production capacity), so you should see the lots continue to be full until the end of quarter push to deliver everything in stock.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 686
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:50 am

SageBrush wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
SageBrush wrote: A $5,000+ discount on a new car is required to meet the ZEV sales quota. The quota works out to ~ 1% of Nissan vehicles sold in the CARB states for 2019. Considering that e.g., in California 6% of vehicle sales are plug-ins, the discount shows just how hard it is to move the LEAF.
The leaf seems to be doing fine globally.
... during the year that Tesla Model 3 was not available.
If the US is any indication, LEAF sales will crater in Europe in 2019. I can think of reasons why not, by the way:

1. Europe much prefers hatch over sedan
2. Europe has a cooler climate and a more favorable view of Nissan TMS-less battery cars
3. The LEAF is cheaper

We'll see. I hope the LEAF has enough success for Nissan stay in the game and actually put some R&D into the car for a change.
Nissan will do fine, not because they can compete against the model 3 (they can't), but because they're better than any ICE hatchback out there (new leaf has more power, range, and doesn't look like a frog).
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

SageBrush
Posts: 4745
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:11 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: Nissan will do fine, not because they can compete against the model 3 (they can't), but because they're better than any ICE hatchback out there (new leaf has more power, range, and doesn't look like a frog).
I'll buy that argument for Norway, but I am much less sure about other countries. Germany e.g. is probably going to buy their domestic brands if available and I daresay that VW still has marketing clout in Europe despite dieselgate (strange but true.)
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

GRA
Posts: 10868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:41 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:We're already past the inflection point on an s-curve. It's now strictly production constraints. A 40kwh Nissan leaf S for $26k (assuming federal tax credits expired and only NMAC incentives of $4k) already has a 5-year (Edmunds depreciation hit assumes the federal tax credit is taken) TCO of less than a Toyota Yaris.
Ah, S-curves. The problem with them is that they're rarely pure curves, but are subject to outside influences that create major bumps and discontinuities and slow the whole process down, like the imposition or removal of subsidies, changes in commodity (gas among others) prices, competition, wars, economic slumps or booms, etc. I imagine an S-curve in Ontario (or Georgia a few years ago) would look to have been at an inflection point too before the subsidies were ended, after which sales cratered. There's rarely a single inflection point, bur normally a series of them.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SanCarlosJeff
Posts: 13
Joined: Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:14 am
Delivery Date: 24 Sep 2018
Leaf Number: 302391
Location: Northern CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:30 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Ha Ha Ha! You've definitely been listening to the wrong people. You mean these: https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/co ... ope_first/

They've already gone onto the Glovis CAPTAIN (here's tracking info from KarenRei, who's a very informed poster): https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/3328350/

There's another ship (Glovis COSMOS) coming by to pick up the next shipment. Tesla is trying to send 3000 model 3's to europe per week (out of their 6000/week production capacity), so you should see the lots continue to be full until the end of quarter push to deliver everything in stock.
Not sure if those are the same cars as Culver Blvd. is in LA and (according to the linked thread) the Glovis Captain left out of San Francisco.
-Jeff
Prius: 2005-2012
Volt: 2012-2018
Leaf:2018-??

lorenfb
Posts: 2243
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:22 pm

SanCarlosJeff wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Ha Ha Ha! You've definitely been listening to the wrong people. You mean these: https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/co ... ope_first/

They've already gone onto the Glovis CAPTAIN (here's tracking info from KarenRei, who's a very informed poster): https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/3328350/

There's another ship (Glovis COSMOS) coming by to pick up the next shipment. Tesla is trying to send 3000 model 3's to europe per week (out of their 6000/week production capacity), so you should see the lots continue to be full until the end of quarter push to deliver everything in stock.
Not sure if those are the same cars as Culver Blvd. is in LA and (according to the linked thread) the Glovis Captain left out of San Francisco.
You are correct, i.e. it's a totally different location.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 4.5K miles, 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 686
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:32 pm

SanCarlosJeff wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Ha Ha Ha! You've definitely been listening to the wrong people. You mean these: https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/co ... ope_first/

They've already gone onto the Glovis CAPTAIN (here's tracking info from KarenRei, who's a very informed poster): https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/3328350/

There's another ship (Glovis COSMOS) coming by to pick up the next shipment. Tesla is trying to send 3000 model 3's to europe per week (out of their 6000/week production capacity), so you should see the lots continue to be full until the end of quarter push to deliver everything in stock.
Not sure if those are the same cars as Culver Blvd. is in LA and (according to the linked thread) the Glovis Captain left out of San Francisco.
Oh shit! I owe an apology to lorenfb then.

@ lorenfb, first, sorry about the mixup.

Second, do you have any pictures to indicate that the same cars are parked there since the new year, since Marina Del Rey is a major distribution center for southern california deliveries. I picked up my 3LR there back in May, and they were delivering over 100 cars a day back then.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

sparky
Posts: 723
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 10:55 am
Delivery Date: 08 Jan 2011
Location: SoCal

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:29 pm

Nice to see KBB estimates 69.3% resale value after 36 mos. Only the Toyota Tacoma Pickup does better (69.4%):
https://www.kbb.com/new-cars/best-resal ... psid=cstw1
Is it worth the lust? As we say in our Expert Review of the Tesla Model 3: "With its large battery pack in the low and flat floor, the Model 3 tips the scales at nearly 4,000 lbs. But with most of that mass being low and between the axles, the Model 3 behaves like a proper sports sedan." We also praise the car's over-the-air software updating, massive center-mounted touch screen, and roomy, comfortable front seats.
Mine is still rock solid after 1 year and 20k miles. Guessing the expiring tax credit helps my resale as well.

Triggerhappy007
Posts: 46
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:08 pm
Delivery Date: 01 Jan 2019

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:35 am

sparky wrote:Nice to see KBB estimates 69.3% resale value after 36 mos. Only the Toyota Tacoma Pickup does better (69.4%):
https://www.kbb.com/new-cars/best-resal ... psid=cstw1
So it's true you can finally buy a $35,000 Tesla Model 3. You just have to wait until 2020 when 3 year old LR models will be $35,000. :lol:
2019 Leaf SL ProPilot
2018 Pacifica Hybrid

cwerdna
Posts: 9669
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:39 pm

Tesla reduces Model 3 price, now starts at $42,900 before incentives
https://electrek.co/2019/02/05/tesla-mo ... reduction/

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

Return to “Other Electric Cars & Plug-In Hybrids”