GRA
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Feb 05, 2019 8:37 pm

^^^ (salescritter https://goo.gl/images/BCTG67 slaps fender):

End of the month sale! Price just reduced! No credit? Bad credit? We don't care if you're currently in prison - everything must go!

Maybe it's just me, but there seems to be almost an air of desperation about this, so soon after the last price reduction. Now it's down to a $650 effective price increase since the subsidy dropped. Why wouldn't people wait to see if they knock that off too?.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

cwerdna
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:21 am

^^^
It's possible they do have a large backlog of unsold US market inventory.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/tesla-s ... -site.html made me aware of https://tslaq.org/. Not clear how credible the reports are and how much is unsold inventory vs. sold inventory that needs to be prepped and picked up. Those guys running that site do have a motive...

The analyst cited at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... nologyNews says
“This is a strong indication that demand in the U.S. for both the mid-range and long-range Model 3 versions has largely been exhausted, and the company is still working through the estimated ~6.8k of unsold Model 3 inventory,” Cowen analysts said.
But who (outside Tesla) knows if that's accurate? I saw someone post that over at TMC, and sure enough, a fanboy/fangirl attacked him. :roll: (https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-3370158)

To be fair though, Chevy Bolts have been selling at large discounts in CA. They're openly advertised for at least $5K below MSRP (and this is below invoice) and this dealer (for example) supposedly has over 200 Bolts in stock: https://www.chevroletoffremont.com/Vehi ... =Bolt%20EV I bought from them and did better than that off MSRP.

'19 Bolt Premier
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Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:53 am

cwerdna wrote:^^^
It's possible they do have a large backlog of unsold US market inventory.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/tesla-s ... -site.html made me aware of https://tslaq.org/. Not clear how credible the reports are and how much is unsold inventory vs. sold inventory that needs to be prepped and picked up. Those guys running that site do have a motive...

The analyst cited at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... nologyNews says
“This is a strong indication that demand in the U.S. for both the mid-range and long-range Model 3 versions has largely been exhausted, and the company is still working through the estimated ~6.8k of unsold Model 3 inventory,” Cowen analysts said.
But who (outside Tesla) knows if that's accurate? I saw someone post that over at TMC, and sure enough, a fanboy/fangirl attacked him. :roll: (https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-3370158)

To be fair though, Chevy Bolts have been selling at large discounts in CA. They're openly advertised for at least $5K below MSRP (and this is below invoice) and this dealer (for example) supposedly has over 200 Bolts in stock: https://www.chevroletoffremont.com/Vehi ... =Bolt%20EV I bought from them and did better than that off MSRP.
fanboy here. The explanation is that it's passing the referral program savings onto customers.

With EU/China demand still crazy high (but shipping costs are high too, and cars on boats significantly reduces revenue while increasing COGS and inventory), and Q1 coming off of the reduction in federal tax credit sales push, plus winter being a seasonally slow time for auto-sales, I'd say it's more of an attempt to maintain margins (by pushing more domestic sales).

You can call that a short-term "demand" issue if you want, but you also know that demand will pick right back up in the spring. So not much of an issue.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:00 pm

A year ago it was "they aren't producing 5000/week".
Now it's "the demand has been exhausted".

I think this graph paints a more interesting picture of what has happened in the last year.

Cumulative sales of all plug-in cars sold in US (Dec 2010 to Jan 2019)
Image

This is reposted from a reddit thread. In the thread, they have a link to a dashboard with the data that produced this graph; it has some other interesting views. The raw data is from InsideEVs.
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GRA
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:00 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:You can call that a short-term "demand" issue if you want, but you also know that demand will pick right back up in the spring. So not much of an issue.
I don't think anyone 'knows' that demand will pick right back up in the spring. Tesla certainly hopes that it will, but if the U.S. market for the MR/LR has been satisfied and the SR isn't going to be available for "another 4-6 months" in Tesla time, then demand may well not recover. I expect there will be another sales burst before the next subsidy decrease on July 1st, but that's very different from sustained demand.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:01 pm

GRA wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:You can call that a short-term "demand" issue if you want, but you also know that demand will pick right back up in the spring. So not much of an issue.
I don't think anyone 'knows' that demand will pick right back up in the spring. Tesla certainly hopes that it will, but if the U.S. market for the MR/LR has been satisfied and the SR isn't going to be available for "another 4-6 months" in Tesla time, then demand may well not recover. I expect there will be another sales burst before the next subsidy decrease on July 1st, but that's very different from sustained demand.
Hmmm, where have I heard that cop out before? Oh yeah! with the model S! Here's the insideev's monthly estimates for 2018:
Jan - 800
Feb - 1125
Mar - 3375
Apr - 1250
May - 1520
Jun - 2750
Jul - 1200
Aug - 2625
Sep - 3750
Oct - 1350
Nov - 2750
Dec - 3250

Oh look, Jan was the lowest sales month! Anyone drawing any kind of conclusions on demand from Jan sales is just asking to be proven wrong in the later months.

Edit: edited formatting. data taken from: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
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GRA
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:46 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
GRA wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:You can call that a short-term "demand" issue if you want, but you also know that demand will pick right back up in the spring. So not much of an issue.
I don't think anyone 'knows' that demand will pick right back up in the spring. Tesla certainly hopes that it will, but if the U.S. market for the MR/LR has been satisfied and the SR isn't going to be available for "another 4-6 months" in Tesla time, then demand may well not recover. I expect there will be another sales burst before the next subsidy decrease on July 1st, but that's very different from sustained demand.
Hmmm, where have I heard that cop out before? Oh yeah! with the model S! Here's the insideev's monthly estimates for 2018:
Jan - 800
Feb - 1125
Mar - 3375
Apr - 1250
May - 1520
Jun - 2750
Jul - 1200
Aug - 2625
Sep - 3750
Oct - 1350
Nov - 2750
Dec - 3250

Oh look, Jan was the lowest sales month! Anyone drawing any kind of conclusions on demand from Jan sales is just asking to be proven wrong in the later months.

Edit: edited formatting. data taken from: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
No cop-out. We all know that January sales arehistorically low, the question is whether or not it will rebound this time when the issue isn't production capacity but demand. Do you believe that U.S. Model S sales will increase this year, or has the demand been satisfied at current prices with the subisidy phase-out underway? 2017 U.S. Model S sales were 27,060, and in 2018 25,745, or 1,315 less (although Jan. 2019 sales were up YoY). Some of that drop is undoubtedly due to people opting for the Model 3 instead, the question is how many, especially with the Model S now in its 7th year. Same question for the X (2017-2018 YoY increase from 21,315 to 26,100, and 1/2019 sales up YoY from 700 to 950) and 3MR/LR, which seems to have run through its U.S. backlog. The first two cars' market is less price-sensitive than the Model 3's, so the expiry of subisidies should affect their sales less, but it will still have the effect of front-loading them for those on the fence.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:07 pm

GRA wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
GRA wrote: I don't think anyone 'knows' that demand will pick right back up in the spring. Tesla certainly hopes that it will, but if the U.S. market for the MR/LR has been satisfied and the SR isn't going to be available for "another 4-6 months" in Tesla time, then demand may well not recover. I expect there will be another sales burst before the next subsidy decrease on July 1st, but that's very different from sustained demand.
Hmmm, where have I heard that cop out before? Oh yeah! with the model S! Here's the insideev's monthly estimates for 2018:
Jan - 800
Feb - 1125
Mar - 3375
Apr - 1250
May - 1520
Jun - 2750
Jul - 1200
Aug - 2625
Sep - 3750
Oct - 1350
Nov - 2750
Dec - 3250

Oh look, Jan was the lowest sales month! Anyone drawing any kind of conclusions on demand from Jan sales is just asking to be proven wrong in the later months.

Edit: edited formatting. data taken from: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
No copout. We all know that January sales are low, the question is whether or not it will rebound this time, when the issue isn't production capacity but demand. Do you believe that U.S. Model S sales will increase this year, or has the demand been satisfied at current prices? Same question for the X and 3MR/LR.
Both the model S and model X have had price increases, so I absolutely expect sales to be lower. I also expect the profit margins for S and X to improve as well.

And you're begging the question. You can't ask the question "knowing" that the issue is demand - that's an ingrained assumption. As long as production hasn't reached their goal of a sustained 7k/week, then it's still a constraint. There were 5 ships in Jan with Teslas onboard for Europe and China, assuming 3000 cars per ship, plus the 6500 estimate for north america, that's barely less than 6k/week sustained production. Tesla only managed to hit peak production of 7k/week in Dec. Reverting back to a slower sustained production rate after a burst has been their SOP for awhile now.

There are many questions about the decision to reduce the price, but reduced demand is only one amongst many possible answers. Driving mindshare as a marketing tool to keep customers from even considering buying a gas vehicle is a better reason.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:44 pm

GRA wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:You can call that a short-term "demand" issue if you want, but you also know that demand will pick right back up in the spring. So not much of an issue.
I don't think anyone 'knows' that demand will pick right back up in the spring. Tesla certainly hopes that it will, but if the U.S. market for the MR/LR has been satisfied and the SR isn't going to be available for "another 4-6 months" in Tesla time, then demand may well not recover. I expect there will be another sales burst before the next subsidy decrease on July 1st, but that's very different from sustained demand.
At least there're a few with some sense of reality!
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lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:41 am

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
And you're begging the question. You can't ask the question "knowing" that the issue is demand - that's an ingrained assumption. As long as production hasn't reached their goal of a sustained 7k/week, then it's still a constraint. There were 5 ships in Jan with Teslas onboard for Europe and China, assuming 3000 cars per ship, plus the 6500 estimate for north america, that's barely less than 6k/week sustained production. Tesla only managed to hit peak production of 7k/week in Dec. Reverting back to a slower sustained production rate after a burst has been their SOP for awhile now.

There are many questions about the decision to reduce the price, but reduced demand is only one amongst many possible answers. Driving mindshare as a marketing tool to keep customers from even considering buying a gas vehicle is a better reason.
Incongruous hyperbolic rambling, as one might expect from a Tesla "fan boy"! And yes, Tesla's decision to have price reductions relates
to its benevolence, the concern for continued dominance of ICEV appeal verses BEV appeal, or its concern about increasing AGW, right?
Why be concerned about Tesla GAAP profitability, the CFO just quit , and when altruistic motives are believed to be more valued by
Tesla shareholders, e.g. fan boys? In all seriousness, given Elon, who really knows what motivates the decisions at Tesla.

And with regard to the M3, maybe as one financial analyst suggested with Tesla's recent acquisition of Maxwell, ultra-capacitors can
possibly help Tesla achieve the imaginary $35K M3 much sooner. Anyone want to calculate the size of the capacitor needed to replace
a 60 kWh battery? Remember energy stored in a capacitor is 1/2 C V^2.
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#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 4.5K miles, 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

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