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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:27 am

cwerdna wrote: For investors. here's an example: http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/967ca2 ... 19c184331b which was the Q2 2017 update
The standard Model 3, starting at $35,000 with 220 miles of range and a 0-60 mph time of 5.6 seconds, should be available in the U.S. in November
I don't feel like I should have to point out this section of every investor letter, including the one linked, but maybe I do:

[/quote]Certain statements in this shareholder letter, including statements in the “Outlook” section; statements relating to the progress Tesla is
making with respect to product development, such as Model 3
and Solar Roof; statements regarding growth in the number of Tesla
store, service center, delivery hub, Supercharger and destination charger locations and in other service and repair capabilities;
statements relating to the production, production rate and delivery timing of products such as Model 3 and Solar Roof and completion of
energy generation and storage projects; statements regarding growth of our energy business and means to achieve such growth;
growth in demand and orders for Tesla products and the catalysts for that growth; the ability to achieve product demand, volume,
production, delivery, deployment, revenue, cash generation, cash flow, leasing, gross margin, spending, capital expenditure and
profitability targets; productivity improvements and capacity expansion plans, such as for Gigafactory 1; and statements regarding
Gigafactory 1 and Gigafactory 2 timing, plans and output expectations, including those related to battery and photovoltaic cell and other
production, are “forward-looking statements” that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements are based on
management’s current expectations, and as a result of certain risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ materially from those
projected
. The following important factors, without limitation, could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forwardlooking statements: the risk of delays in the manufacture, production, delivery and/or completion of our vehicles and energy products,
particularly Model 3; the ability to design and achieve and grow simultaneous and separate market acceptance of Model S, Model X
and their variants, as well as new vehicle models, specifically Model 3;[/quote]

(emphasis mine)

If you are an investor looking for promises, I don't think you get investing.
cwerdna wrote: As for govt, I'll have to see if I can find the terms of the loan but https://www.tesla.com/blog/tesla-gets-l ... ent-energy says
Tesla Motors has received approval for about $465 million in low-interest loans from the US Department of Energy to accelerate the production of affordable, fuel-efficient electric vehicles.
Please tell me what part of that statement/goal has not been achieved and/or where it says anything about a specific price or timeframes.
cwerdna wrote:
lpickup wrote:[And even though I don't necessarily think it's fair to play this game, I will point out that $35,000 in 2016 dollars is $36,706 in 2019 dollars.
I don't think it's fair either. Tesla raised prices on the S years ago and tried to cite CPI: https://www.tesla.com/blog/2013-model-s-price-increase. Notice the 40 kWh S is there? This is before any of those ever shipped. And those that ordered those eventually got a 60 kWh car software limited to 40.
[/quote]

Yes, and I think you missed my point, which is nicely illustrated by that document. In 2013 for $57,400 (or $59,900 after the increase) you could get a hypothetical 40kWh vehicle. Now for that price you can get a 75kWh vehicle. Is anyone really bemoaning the fact that they can't actually get a 40kWh Model S? Or is it that they couldn't get a $57,400 vehicle (at the time)? The effective costs of EVs are falling, even if the absolute price has not yet crossed that supposed $35,000 barrier, which apparently in some minds means it's suddenly affordable. To date Tesla (and other carmakers for that matter) have focused more on function than price, choosing to translate battery cost savings into increasing range for the same cost, rather than reducing costs and keeping the range the same. Sure, it's frustrating that it's taking longer to get to the true mass market. But it's the fiscally responsible way to proceed, in my opinion, particularly in light of sufficient (and maybe even overwhelming) demand. In the end that strategy is going to result in faster acceleration towards the goal of an affordable EV while strengthening the companies building the higher priced variants so that they are around to build those lower priced variants.

And as I said, if Tesla turns around and says "screw this, we're just going to focus on the high end" then I will join you in being disappointed, at least to the extent that other low-cost automakers don't swoop in and take that segment of the market. For example, if you draw another arbitrary line at $20,000, while I think it's important that that segment of the new car market ultimately be served by EVs, I don't necessarily think that Tesla needs to serve it, as long as they create the competitive pressure to force a lower-end manufacturer to release something in that segment. But for the time being, since Tesla did draw the line themselves at $35,000, I will hold them to that, and I believe they will eventually achieve that...just not on Elon's schedule.
...Lance

Deep Blue Metallic 2018 Tesla Model 3 (31849) (delivered: 7/13/18)
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Durandal
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:17 am

Well, since it's the Official Tesla Model 3 thread, I guess it's a good place as any to say that I'm trading in my 2012 Leaf SL for a Dual Motor Model 3. I placed my $2500 deposit yesterday. :D On to the future! Honestly though if my Leaf battery wasn't degrading at an amazing speed, I probably would have stuck with it for another 2 years, but I can't make it to/from work on one charge any more now that I have to drop off my daughter. It only adds 5 miles each way to my commute, but that extra 10 miles makes it impossible. As a result, I must L1 charge at a pay parking deck (as opposed to employer provided which is free) every day just to make it. And when it's time for her dance lesson, I've got to endure scornful looks from the guys at the Nissan dealership nearby her dance studio when charging at the dealership. I'll troll them in my Model 3 once for old time's sake after I get it.
Pulled the trigger on going EV on 10/2016 with a 2012 Leaf SL, traded it in and now I'm a very happy Tesla Model 3 owner. Reservations for Tesla Model Y and Cyber Truck.

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:59 am

Durandal wrote:Well, since it's the Official Tesla Model 3 thread, I guess it's a good place as any to say that I'm trading in my 2012 Leaf SL for a Dual Motor Model 3. I placed my $2500 deposit yesterday. :D On to the future! Honestly though if my Leaf battery wasn't degrading at an amazing speed, I probably would have stuck with it for another 2 years, but I can't make it to/from work on one charge any more now that I have to drop off my daughter. It only adds 5 miles each way to my commute, but that extra 10 miles makes it impossible. As a result, I must L1 charge at a pay parking deck (as opposed to employer provided which is free) every day just to make it. And when it's time for her dance lesson, I've got to endure scornful looks from the guys at the Nissan dealership nearby her dance studio when charging at the dealership. I'll troll them in my Model 3 once for old time's sake after I get it.
Nice, and good choice with AWD!

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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:48 am

Durandal wrote:I've got to endure scornful looks from the guys at the Nissan dealership nearby her dance studio when charging at the dealership.
Seriously? This is beyond sad. I've heard of some dealers that aren't exactly welcoming to EVs, but what on earth do they think they put the charging stations in for?
...Lance

Deep Blue Metallic 2018 Tesla Model 3 (31849) (delivered: 7/13/18)
Coulis Red 2016 SV (312310) (bought: 12/23/16 sold: 7/5/18)
Glacier Pearl 2012 SL (016138) (delivered: 12/9/11; traded in 12/23/16)
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SageBrush
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:54 am

Durandal wrote:Well, since it's the Official Tesla Model 3 thread, I guess it's a good place as any to say that I'm trading in my 2012 Leaf SL for a Dual Motor Model 3. I placed my $2500 deposit yesterday. :D On to the future! Honestly though if my Leaf battery wasn't degrading at an amazing speed, I probably would have stuck with it for another 2 years, but I can't make it to/from work on one charge any more now that I have to drop off my daughter. It only adds 5 miles each way to my commute, but that extra 10 miles makes it impossible. As a result, I must L1 charge at a pay parking deck (as opposed to employer provided which is free) every day just to make it. And when it's time for her dance lesson, I've got to endure scornful looks from the guys at the Nissan dealership nearby her dance studio when charging at the dealership. I'll troll them in my Model 3 once for old time's sake after I get it.
Excellent !!
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:57 am

lpickup wrote:
Durandal wrote:I've got to endure scornful looks from the guys at the Nissan dealership nearby her dance studio when charging at the dealership.
Seriously? This is beyond sad. I've heard of some dealers that aren't exactly welcoming to EVs, but what on earth do they think they put the charging stations in for?
Charging the few cars they sell. This is a common issue at dealerships and manny Nissan DC stations at dealerships in CA have converted to pay EVGO. We know most dealers do not like this activity unless it is pay for use as the type of issues with visitors changes with each model.

SageBrush
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:27 am

LeftieBiker wrote:I seem to recall, during the Obama era, Tesla getting massive sensibilities, while Musk was talking about their ultimate goal being a car line that anyone could afford - at least at the low end. My memory has gotten too fuzzy to remember more than that, though. Maybe they never put it in writing. :-)
You remember wrong.
Look up GM
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

Durandal
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:31 pm

lpickup wrote:
Durandal wrote:I've got to endure scornful looks from the guys at the Nissan dealership nearby her dance studio when charging at the dealership.
Seriously? This is beyond sad. I've heard of some dealers that aren't exactly welcoming to EVs, but what on earth do they think they put the charging stations in for?
It is sad. I used to go inside and sit patiently, not partaking of any of their free water or snacks, whenever a sales guy would ask if I was interested in looking at anything, I'd ask to see the new Leaf. "Oh, we don't stock those since they don't sell."
No, actually they don't sell because you don't stock them.
The dealership has 3 Leaf chargers, 2 of which are always blocked by fossil cars, the only one that isn't ICED is the one by the service center, and those guys are scowling because there's no reason to take a Leaf in for maintenance besides tires, and I do that at Walmart or Sam's Club. Sales guys aren't interested in ordering a car, their bonuses are based upon selling what's on the lot, so they seem to hate Leaf owners out here.

But yeah, super stoked on the AWD Model 3. I've been dreaming of a Tesla since 2008, the Leaf held me over, but also taught me what I didn't want in a BEV. I almost capitulated and bought a Bolt a while back, but I'm glad I held out. My wife's Volt is nice, but we have that because she's not ready to give up gas stations due to certain family members not living nearby chargers, etc...
Pulled the trigger on going EV on 10/2016 with a 2012 Leaf SL, traded it in and now I'm a very happy Tesla Model 3 owner. Reservations for Tesla Model Y and Cyber Truck.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:03 pm

SageBrush wrote:
LeftieBiker wrote:I seem to recall, during the Obama era, Tesla getting massive sensibilities, while Musk was talking about their ultimate goal being a car line that anyone could afford - at least at the low end. My memory has gotten too fuzzy to remember more than that, though. Maybe they never put it in writing. :-)
You remember wrong.
Look up GM
I do indeed remember GM, and me wanting Obama to grow a pair and require that they build more EVs as a condition of us bailing them out. Cwerdna just yesterday posted some support for what I wrote, although it still isn't clear to what extent government assistance was tied to or the result of Musk telling anyone who would listen (including investors) how Tesla was going to be building a car that would cost $35k - before subsidies.

It's rather amusing to see you become Tesla's own attack dog.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
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PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:28 pm

IEVS:
UPDATE: Tesla Model 3 No Longer Recommended By Consumer Reports
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-los ... mendation/
According to Tesla Model 3 owners, the car has some reliability concerns.

***Update: We’ve embedded a Consumer Reports video below in which they discuss their reasons for recommending vehicles. You may want to skip ahead to the 9:31 mark. Hat tip MTN Ranger!

Consumer Reports reached out to us this week to let us know that it was making some updates based on vehicle reliability data. The Model 3 was one of a handful of cars to be impacted by the updated information. According to CR:
  • The Tesla Model 3 and Chrysler 300 are among the six cars that can no longer be “Recommended” by Consumer Reports (CR) due to declining reliability, the organization announced at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., before the respected Washington Automotive Press Association. . . .
. . . when the car lost its recommendation (much like the Tesla Model S and X in the past), the automaker was able to make “fixes” rather quickly in order to help appease CR. Tesla’s over-the-air software updates have proven advantageous on numerous occasions, but in this most recent case, software fixes will not help. . . .

The recent report shares that Model 3 owners have reported loose body trim and glass defects, which lowered the car’s overall score enough to take it off the publication’s list of recommended vehicles. The Model 3’s new score drops it down 11 spots in CR’s updated rankings. . . .
The article reporting the same news at GCR goes into more detail:
Satisfying, but not so reliable: Tesla Model 3 joins ranks of enthusiast cars
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... siast-cars
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

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