Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 702
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:51 am

lorenfb wrote:
SageBrush wrote:
sparky wrote: They'll ship few to Norway in April and we'll read about the "Norwegian demand cliff".
:lol: :lol:
You are so right
What happened here?
April is off to a horrible start for Tesla in the countries in Europe where we get daily sales (registration) data: Norway and The Netherlands.
Compared to March, the daily sales rate in Norway in April thus far is down 82%, and in The Netherlands it’s down 76%.
For the more expensive and higher-margin Model S and X, Tesla is losing market share to Audi and Jaguar’s electric cars in the most dramatic of ways.
Audi eTron and Jaguar i-Pace are outselling Tesla Model X and S combined by a factor of 5.7 to 1 in Norway, and 9.7 to 1 in The Netherlands.
Tesla usually makes up for an April shortfall in the last month of the quarter, but this is a very deep hole from which Tesla now has to dig.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/425624 ... lands?dr=1
Since you listen to Anton Wahlman, do yourself a favor and go back and review all his articles since 2013. He's been disparaging Tesla and making bad predictions since then. Go ahead and believe his interpretation of events at your own risk.

What he didn't point out was that the first week of april was still showing strong deliveries, because those were vehicles that didn't make it in the Q1 delivery push. After all the ships were unloaded, the next batch of ships haven't arrived yet, so no cars to deliver.

Shame on Tesla for not getting their delivery shit in order, but hardly an indication of a demand issue.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

lorenfb
Posts: 2261
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:15 am

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
SageBrush wrote: :lol: :lol:
You are so right
What happened here?
April is off to a horrible start for Tesla in the countries in Europe where we get daily sales (registration) data: Norway and The Netherlands.
Compared to March, the daily sales rate in Norway in April thus far is down 82%, and in The Netherlands it’s down 76%.
For the more expensive and higher-margin Model S and X, Tesla is losing market share to Audi and Jaguar’s electric cars in the most dramatic of ways.
Audi eTron and Jaguar i-Pace are outselling Tesla Model X and S combined by a factor of 5.7 to 1 in Norway, and 9.7 to 1 in The Netherlands.
Tesla usually makes up for an April shortfall in the last month of the quarter, but this is a very deep hole from which Tesla now has to dig.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/425624 ... lands?dr=1
Since you listen to Anton Wahlman, do yourself a favor and go back and review all his articles since 2013. He's been disparaging Tesla and making bad predictions since then. Go ahead and believe his interpretation of events at your own risk.

What he didn't point out was that the first week of april was still showing strong deliveries, because those were vehicles that didn't make it in the Q1 delivery push. After all the ships were unloaded, the next batch of ships haven't arrived yet, so no cars to deliver.

Shame on Tesla for not getting their delivery shit in order, but hardly an indication of a demand issue.
Today's Tesla 2019 Q1 report and next Wednesday's InsideEVs April U.S. deliveries should provide a good basic perspective.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 4.5K miles, 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 702
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:32 am

lorenfb wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Since you listen to Anton Wahlman, do yourself a favor and go back and review all his articles since 2013. He's been disparaging Tesla and making bad predictions since then. Go ahead and believe his interpretation of events at your own risk.

What he didn't point out was that the first week of april was still showing strong deliveries, because those were vehicles that didn't make it in the Q1 delivery push. After all the ships were unloaded, the next batch of ships haven't arrived yet, so no cars to deliver.

Shame on Tesla for not getting their delivery shit in order, but hardly an indication of a demand issue.
Today's Tesla 2019 Q1 report and next Wednesday's InsideEVs April U.S. deliveries should provide a good basic perspective.
We already know Q1's deliveries (wasn't great for model S & X), and can guess at what their earnings will be. April's InsideEV's numbers are for US deliveries and are only their estimate.

What kind of perspective is that going to provide? Shorts will continue to claim that Tesla will go bankrupt and that there's limited demand for BEV's, and bulls won't. Nothing the bulls have said has ever changed any bear's opinion ... except for Andrew Left @ Citron. He's a real curious one isn't he?
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:40 am

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: What kind of perspective is that going to provide? ?
Easy. If it fits his narrative it will be 'the final truth' and if it does not he will find an excuse. Since loren is a tesla troll and he has read that Elon does not expect to report a profit this quarter he is hopeful for confirmation of his negative narrative.

Whatever
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

User avatar
EVDRIVER
Moderator
Posts: 6677
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:51 am

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Apr 24, 2019 2:09 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: What kind of perspective is that going to provide? ?
Easy. If it fits his narrative it will be 'the final truth' and if it does not he will find an excuse. Since loren is a tesla troll and he has read that Elon does not expect to report a profit this quarter he is hopeful for confirmation of his negative narrative.

Whatever

Correct, if the model S line burned down and could not run it would be a demand issue. No one mentions the refresh or other impacts. Yes Loren is an absolute Tesla troll, the only one really on this forum except crazy Ed, RIP. Loren is also the tech expert on Tesla that gets everything wrong.

lorenfb
Posts: 2261
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Apr 24, 2019 2:49 pm

EVDRIVER wrote: Correct, if the model S line burned down and could not run it would be a demand issue. No one mentions the refresh or other impacts.
Tesla looking real good, right? NOT!
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of -$2.90 misses by $1.96; GAAP EPS of -$4.10 misses by $2.04.
Revenue of $4.54B (+33.1% Y/Y) misses by $640M.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/24/tesla-e ... -2019.html

Back to the old verbiage previously post on MNL, "Growth companies don't need to be profitable."
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 4.5K miles, 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

User avatar
EVDRIVER
Moderator
Posts: 6677
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:51 am

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Apr 24, 2019 5:34 pm

lorenfb wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote: Correct, if the model S line burned down and could not run it would be a demand issue. No one mentions the refresh or other impacts.
Tesla looking real good, right? NOT!
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of -$2.90 misses by $1.96; GAAP EPS of -$4.10 misses by $2.04.
Revenue of $4.54B (+33.1% Y/Y) misses by $640M.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/24/tesla-e ... -2019.html

Back to the old verbiage previously post on MNL, "Growth companies don't need to be profitable."
Check back in a couple years when I retire from Tesla. You could not see the big picture if it fell on your head like the foolish analysts. Are you really always full of sound bites that fit your agenda that have no vision or analysis? Let me answer,

Yes,

Sad as usual.

lorenfb
Posts: 2261
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Apr 24, 2019 8:12 pm

And now for the really unpleasant nitty-gritty of Tesla's 2019 Q1:

2018 GAAP Numbers;

ASP per vehicle - $84K, Loss per vehicle - $4K

2019 Q1 GAAP Numbers:

ASP per vehicle - $59K, Loss per vehicle - $10K+

So in Q1 of 2019, Tesla basically gave away 2.5X the shareholder wealth per vehicle than in 2018, i.e. a significant negative trend.
And next comes the MY (M3 with a different decklid - laughable) further reducing the ASP and potentially further increasing losses,
given the significant reduction in MS/MX sales - no ASP help there.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 4.5K miles, 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 702
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 25, 2019 12:38 am

lorenfb wrote:And now for the really unpleasant nitty-gritty of Tesla's 2019 Q1:

2018 GAAP Numbers;

ASP per vehicle - $84K, Loss per vehicle - $4K

2019 Q1 GAAP Numbers:

ASP per vehicle - $59K, Loss per vehicle - $10K+

So in Q1 of 2019, Tesla basically gave away 2.5X the shareholder wealth per vehicle than in 2018, i.e. a significant negative trend.
And next comes the MY (M3 with a different decklid - laughable) further reducing the ASP and potentially further increasing losses,
given the significant reduction in MS/MX sales - no ASP help there.
You're distorting the numbers to suit your narrative, but I didn't expect nothing less. Good luck trying to get anyone to sell you their shares!
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

lorenfb
Posts: 2261
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:36 am

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
lorenfb wrote:And now for the really unpleasant nitty-gritty of Tesla's 2019 Q1:

2018 GAAP Numbers;

ASP per vehicle - $84K, Loss per vehicle - $4K

2019 Q1 GAAP Numbers:

ASP per vehicle - $59K, Loss per vehicle - $10K+

So in Q1 of 2019, Tesla basically gave away 2.5X the shareholder wealth per vehicle than in 2018, i.e. a significant negative trend.
And next comes the MY (M3 with a different decklid - laughable) further reducing the ASP and potentially further increasing losses,
given the significant reduction in MS/MX sales - no ASP help there.
You're distorting the numbers to suit your narrative, but I didn't expect nothing less. Good luck trying to get anyone to sell you their shares!
The numbers weren't "distorted", i.e. they're right from the Tesla P&L statement using simple calculations. So your positive perspective
on the Tesla 2019 Q1 results is?
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 4.5K miles, 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

Return to “Other Electric Cars & Plug-In Hybrids”