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SalisburySam
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:43 am

lorenfb wrote:So your positive perspective on the Tesla 2019 Q1 results is?
...that I'm enjoying the heck out of my Model 3, and that regardless of 1Q19 results that is unlikely to change.
Last edited by SalisburySam on Fri Apr 26, 2019 5:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
Nissan 2012 LEAF SL, 13,500 miles, 9 bars, 70.4% SOH, 46.19 Ahr

Tesla Model 3: Long Range Rear Wheel Drive | Extended AutoPilot | Full Self-Driving
Delivered: July, 2018 | 11,000 miles
Get 1000 miles free Supercharging: https://ts.la/john70942

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:07 am

lorenfb wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
lorenfb wrote:And now for the really unpleasant nitty-gritty of Tesla's 2019 Q1:

2018 GAAP Numbers;

ASP per vehicle - $84K, Loss per vehicle - $4K

2019 Q1 GAAP Numbers:

ASP per vehicle - $59K, Loss per vehicle - $10K+

So in Q1 of 2019, Tesla basically gave away 2.5X the shareholder wealth per vehicle than in 2018, i.e. a significant negative trend.
And next comes the MY (M3 with a different decklid - laughable) further reducing the ASP and potentially further increasing losses,
given the significant reduction in MS/MX sales - no ASP help there.
You're distorting the numbers to suit your narrative, but I didn't expect nothing less. Good luck trying to get anyone to sell you their shares!
The numbers weren't "distorted", i.e. they're right from the Tesla P&L statement using simple calculations. So your positive perspective
on the Tesla 2019 Q1 results is?
The "loss per vehicle" number has been touted by shorts since 2013 as proof of a failed business, without any consideration of the investments made by the company, nor the in-transit vehicles that didn't make delivery by EoQ, that affects the number. It's irrelevant back then, and still is now. That's your narrative.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:25 am

SalisburySam wrote:
lorenfb wrote:So your positive perspective on the Tesla 2019 Q1 results is?
...that I'm enjoyed the heck out of my Model 3, and that regardless of 1Q19 results that is unlikely to change.
That's great! Glad you're happy. I could've bought a M3 instead of my 2019 SL this month, but the M3 had too many negatives
and the Leaf at 175+ mile range is adequate. If the 2019 performs as my 2013 and is as reliable over the next 5 years, I'll be happy.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 4.5K miles, 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:29 am

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
You're distorting the numbers to suit your narrative, but I didn't expect nothing less. Good luck trying to get anyone to sell you their shares!
The numbers weren't "distorted", i.e. they're right from the Tesla P&L statement using simple calculations. So your positive perspective
on the Tesla 2019 Q1 results is?
The "loss per vehicle" number has been touted by shorts since 2013 as proof of a failed business, without any consideration of the investments made by the company, nor the in-transit vehicles that didn't make delivery by EoQ, that affects the number. It's irrelevant back then, and still is now. That's your narrative.
So nothing positive, right? So we wait for next Wednesday's InsideEvs U.S. report.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 4.5K miles, 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 25, 2019 12:16 pm

lorenfb wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
The numbers weren't "distorted", i.e. they're right from the Tesla P&L statement using simple calculations. So your positive perspective
on the Tesla 2019 Q1 results is?
The "loss per vehicle" number has been touted by shorts since 2013 as proof of a failed business, without any consideration of the investments made by the company, nor the in-transit vehicles that didn't make delivery by EoQ, that affects the number. It's irrelevant back then, and still is now. That's your narrative.
So nothing positive, right? So we wait for next Wednesday's InsideEvs U.S. report.
Q2 projected deliverables is 90-100k cars. Smoother international deliveries being targeted. $900million debt paid off. supercharger network continues to grow, etc. Plenty of positives, but you wouldn't care about them anyway, so I didn't bother.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 25, 2019 12:22 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
The "loss per vehicle" number has been touted by shorts since 2013 as proof of a failed business, without any consideration of the investments made by the company, nor the in-transit vehicles that didn't make delivery by EoQ, that affects the number. It's irrelevant back then, and still is now. That's your narrative.
So nothing positive, right? So we wait for next Wednesday's InsideEvs U.S. report.
Q2 projected deliverables is 90-100k cars. Smoother international deliveries being targeted. $900million debt paid off. supercharger network continues to grow, etc. Plenty of positives, but you wouldn't care about them anyway, so I didn't bother.
Don't feed Loren it's a waste of time and only reason they are here. Unless you think EV demand in general is dead then Tesla is going to be the leader in this space as they have every advantage at every level. If not then EVs are dead. In the meantime all the Tesla "killers" are falling flat on their face.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:31 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
So nothing positive, right? So we wait for next Wednesday's InsideEvs U.S. report.
Q2 projected deliverables is 90-100k cars. Smoother international deliveries being targeted. $900million debt paid off. supercharger network continues to grow, etc. Plenty of positives, but you wouldn't care about them anyway, so I didn't bother.
Don't feed Loren it's a waste of time and only reason they are here. Unless you think EV demand in general is dead then Tesla is going to be the leader in this space as they have every advantage at every level. If not then EVs are dead. In the meantime all the Tesla "killers" are falling flat on their face.
I consider it batting practice. :D
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:59 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: Q2 projected deliverables is 90-100k cars. Smoother international deliveries being targeted.
Another Elon guesstimate, right? If likely, then next Wednesday should indicate minimum U.S. deliveries of 15-20K (M3/MS/MX)
for April, and assuming ROW is near equal to U.S. - that's unlikely though. The key assumption is that the M3 demand hasn't weakened,
which many analysts believe not to be the case, as indicated by a very poor Q1. Again, where's the $35K M3? Surely with all the
$1K reservations still on the books from 2016, a huge delivery potential exists, right? Oh, did we forget, Tesla can't deliver a $35K M3
profitably.

Bottom Line: Dream On!
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 4.5K miles, 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

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EVDRIVER
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Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:51 am

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:42 pm

lorenfb wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: Q2 projected deliverables is 90-100k cars. Smoother international deliveries being targeted.
Another Elon guesstimate, right? If likely, then next Wednesday should indicate minimum U.S. deliveries of 15-20K (M3/MS/MX)
for April, and assuming ROW is near equal to U.S. - that's unlikely though. The key assumption is that the M3 demand hasn't weakened,
which many analysts believe not to be the case, as indicated by a very poor Q1. Again, where's the $35K M3? Surely with all the
$1K reservations still on the books from 2016, a huge delivery potential exists, right? Oh, did we forget, Tesla can't deliver a $35K M3
profitably.

Bottom Line: Dream On!
Got bitter?

webb14leafs
Posts: 248
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:43 am
Delivery Date: 27 Mar 2017

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Apr 29, 2019 10:54 am

lorenfb wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: Q2 projected deliverables is 90-100k cars. Smoother international deliveries being targeted.
Another Elon guesstimate, right? If likely, then next Wednesday should indicate minimum U.S. deliveries of 15-20K (M3/MS/MX)
for April, and assuming ROW is near equal to U.S. - that's unlikely though. The key assumption is that the M3 demand hasn't weakened,
which many analysts believe not to be the case, as indicated by a very poor Q1. Again, where's the $35K M3? Surely with all the
$1K reservations still on the books from 2016, a huge delivery potential exists, right? Oh, did we forget, Tesla can't deliver a $35K M3
profitably.

Bottom Line: Dream On!
Bottom Line: I will!

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