Durandal
Posts: 365
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Delivery Date: 22 Sep 2016
Leaf Number: 025018
Location: Central Arkansas

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:29 am

lorenfb wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: Q2 projected deliverables is 90-100k cars. Smoother international deliveries being targeted.
Another Elon guesstimate, right? If likely, then next Wednesday should indicate minimum U.S. deliveries of 15-20K (M3/MS/MX)
for April, and assuming ROW is near equal to U.S. - that's unlikely though. The key assumption is that the M3 demand hasn't weakened,
which many analysts believe not to be the case, as indicated by a very poor Q1. Again, where's the $35K M3? Surely with all the
$1K reservations still on the books from 2016, a huge delivery potential exists, right? Oh, did we forget, Tesla can't deliver a $35K M3
profitably.

Bottom Line: Dream On!
$35k Model 3 exists, just call Tesla to order one. In any case, I expect the Model 3 to continue to be the #1 selling BEV in North America for the next 3-5 years, maybe only to be eclipsed by the Model Y. Other manufacturers just won't scale up enough with their compliance cars. Local Nissan dealerships don't even try to sell the Leaf, they anti-sell the Leaf.... :roll: Tesla sold more Model 3s in Feb & March of this year than Nissan sold of Leafs ALL OF LAST year in NA.
Pulled the trigger on going EV on 10/2016 with a 2012 Leaf SL, traded it in and now I'm a very happy Tesla Model 3 owner. Reservations for Tesla Model Y and Cyber Truck.

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lpickup
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Leaf Number: 16138
Location: Raleigh, NC
Contact: Website

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:34 pm

Durandal wrote: $35k Model 3 exists, just call Tesla to order one. In any case, I expect the Model 3 to continue to be the #1 selling BEV in North America for the next 3-5 years, maybe only to be eclipsed by the Model Y.
The Model 3 has transcended the "EV" market. It is so far ahead of the rest of the EV market, it doesn't even make sense to compare it to the rest of the EV market. It truly competes with all other vehicles in its class (gas or electric)--which, as EV enthusiasts, is what we have been working towards.
...Lance

Deep Blue Metallic 2018 Tesla Model 3 (31849) (delivered: 7/13/18)
Coulis Red 2016 SV (312310) (bought: 12/23/16 sold: 7/5/18)
Glacier Pearl 2012 SL (016138) (delivered: 12/9/11; traded in 12/23/16)
NOGA$4ME Blog

mtndrew1
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:52 am
Location: Gardena CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:59 pm

I’ve just passed 20k miles on my Model 3 over the course of the last year.

Battery degradation seems to have stabilized at 306 miles from an original 310 miles of range.

Since I bought the car they added significant horsepower, a dash cam, navigate on autopilot, and rain sensing wipers over the air.

Tesla replaced my flat, uncomfortable rear bench seat with the new design at no charge.

I’ve driven the car from the Los Angeles area to Oregon, Utah, Nevada, and Arizona with no advance planning other than entering the destination in the nav.

It remains a brilliant car. Not without its faults but I wouldn’t hesitate to buy it again and for the first time in my life I intend to keep this car until it is no longer usable.
2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range (100% charge @ 43k miles shows 5.8% degradation)

2013 Nissan Leaf S + QC sold with warranty pack replacement (~35% degradation @ ~40k miles)

2015 Kia Soul EV+ Lease returned 10/14/17 45,000 miles w/ 13.8% degradation.

LeftieBiker
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Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:59 pm

Since I bought the car they added significant horsepower, a dash cam, navigate on autopilot, and rain sensing wipers over the air.
How did they add a dash cam OTA?
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
BAFX OBDII Dongle
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:13 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Since I bought the car they added significant horsepower, a dash cam, navigate on autopilot, and rain sensing wipers over the air.
How did they add a dash cam OTA?
Kind of like the way they added rear seat heaters to the car OTA as well!

They used the built in front-facing cameras (and now other ones) and the USB sockets in the console. It's just a matter of updating the software to take video data from the cameras, encode it into video files and write it to the USB drive in the socket.
...Lance

Deep Blue Metallic 2018 Tesla Model 3 (31849) (delivered: 7/13/18)
Coulis Red 2016 SV (312310) (bought: 12/23/16 sold: 7/5/18)
Glacier Pearl 2012 SL (016138) (delivered: 12/9/11; traded in 12/23/16)
NOGA$4ME Blog

mtndrew1
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:52 am
Location: Gardena CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:16 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Since I bought the car they added significant horsepower, a dash cam, navigate on autopilot, and rain sensing wipers over the air.
How did they add a dash cam OTA?
As said above they just made the autopilot cameras do double duty. At first it was only one of the front cams but now it records the two rear-facing side repeater cams too.

Just plug a properly-formatted thumb drive into one of the USB ports and the function starts automatically. Tap once on the icon to save the last ten minutes of driving otherwise it just records in a one-hour loop. I believe it also saves footage upon airbag deployment.
2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range (100% charge @ 43k miles shows 5.8% degradation)

2013 Nissan Leaf S + QC sold with warranty pack replacement (~35% degradation @ ~40k miles)

2015 Kia Soul EV+ Lease returned 10/14/17 45,000 miles w/ 13.8% degradation.

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EVDRIVER
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Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:51 am

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:34 pm

It records short clips just like a dash cam from all three cams now and if you turn on sentry mode it records movement and thieves. Already have some great footage on mine.

LeftieBiker
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Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:59 pm

Neat.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
BAFX OBDII Dongle
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

lorenfb
Posts: 2467
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
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Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:23 pm

SoCal has been one of Tesla's biggest domestic markets. During the latter half of 2018, the Marina Del Rey Tesla delivery center at month
end has had large numbers of M3s in the delivery lots and with customers arriving to take deliveries. This hasn't been the case for month
ends for Q1 of 2019. This situation appears to have been repeated for April. So either Tesla has better managed April deliveries over the
last few weeks, or the poor Q1 marginal delivery rate, i.e. a significant demand reduction, has continued. Some may argue that the above
is no more than anecdotal data which can't be extrapolated as indicative of an overall M3 demand decline. Yes, there's some basis to that,
but given the population (10M) of LA County, this market would still be considered a bellwether of vehicle demand. One would expect April
U.S. M3 deliveries to be at least 50% of an ideal monthly total production of 25K - 30K units, exceeding the March U.S. deliveries of 10K.

Hopefully, data from InsideEVs tomorrow will provide some insight. Lately, though, InsideEVs has not been able to provide Tesla data
until a few days after most all other EV data has been posted.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 76K miles, 47 Ahrs, 5.0 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=73, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 10.3K miles, SOH 109Ahrs/115Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:44 pm

lorenfb wrote:SoCal has been one of Tesla's biggest domestic markets. During the latter half of 2018, the Marina Del Rey Tesla delivery center at month
end has had large numbers of M3s in the delivery lots and with customers arriving to take deliveries. This hasn't been the case for month
ends for Q1 of 2019. This situation appears to have been repeated for April. So either Tesla has better managed April deliveries over the
last few weeks, or the poor Q1 marginal delivery rate, i.e. a significant demand reduction, has continued. Some may argue that the above
is no more than anecdotal data which can't be extrapolated as indicative of an overall M3 demand decline. Yes, there's some basis to that,
but given the population (10M) of LA County, this market would still be considered a bellwether of vehicle demand. One would expect April
U.S. M3 deliveries to be at least 50% of an ideal monthly total production of 25K - 30K units, exceeding the March U.S. deliveries of 10K.

Hopefully, data from InsideEVs tomorrow will provide some insight. Lately, though, InsideEVs has not been able to provide Tesla data
until a few days after most all other EV data has been posted.
The flaw in this anecdote is that marina del rey is just one distribution center amongst many in the domestic US. If Tesla is lying, and deliveries still lumpy, then deliveries should be prioritized to overseas sites. If Tesla does what they said they would, and distribute more evenly, then deliveries would be spread out fairly evenly geographically, and thus a lack of activity in marina del rey means nothing.

Relying on the shorty air force for your data and conclusions is listening to the wrong people.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

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