SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jul 02, 2019 5:28 pm

The Q2 numbers support an annualized production and delivery rate of ~ 400k currently, so they are on track to reach a rate of 500k cars a year by the end of 2019. Elon is not living up to his reputation of always being over-optimistic in his projections.

In other news, the Nissan LEAF is still in the top 10 in US *EV sales, ahead of stalwarts like the discontinuted Chevy Volt and the (have your ever heard of ?) BMW 530e.
Last edited by SageBrush on Tue Jul 02, 2019 5:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

lorenfb
Posts: 2421
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jul 02, 2019 5:34 pm

mtndrew1 wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
mtndrew1 wrote: Tesla delivered 44,550 Model 3s in the US in Q2 2019 according to the InsideEVs estimate,
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, JAN,,,,,,,,,,FEB,,,,,,,,,,MAR,,,,,,,,, APR ,,,,,,,,,,MAY,,,,,,,JUN,,,,,,,JUL,,,,,,,AUG,,,,,SEP,,,,,,OCT,,,,,,NOV,,,,DEC,,,,,,TOTAL
Tesla Model 3* 6,500,,,,,,,,5750,,,,,,10,170,,,,,,10,050,,,,,,,13,950,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,46,425,,,,,Tesla Model 3*


InsideEVs Last update: July 2 @ 5:35 PM ET

June U.S. number?
June is 20,550 Model 3s in the US.

https://insideevs.com/news/357218/tesla ... e-2019-q2/
The latest M3 June at 21,225.

And now for a reality check on the M3 demand:

Q4 2018
U.S. - 63K
ROW - 0

Q1 2019
U.S. - 23k
ROW - 28K

Q2 2019
U.S. - 45K
ROW - 33K

Key Conclusions:

1. M3 U.S. demand in Q2 of 2019 is still down relative to Q4 2018 by 29%.
2. M3 U.S. demand in Q1&Q2 only marginally increased by 8% over Q4 of 2018.
3. Without significant Q3 WW M3 sales increases, the M3 volume will reach a plateau of marginal future growth.
4. Will the increased sales volume (MS/MX/M3) of 32K units over Q1 overcome the GAAP loss per vehicle of $8K
Tesla had in Q1 of 2019? In a few weeks we'll know.
Last edited by lorenfb on Tue Jul 02, 2019 5:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 76K miles, 47 Ahrs, 5.0 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=73, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 10.3K miles, SOH 109Ahrs/115Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jul 02, 2019 5:49 pm

Tesla accounted for ~ 85% of BEV sales in the USA in June.
I'm losing hope in a healthy EV ecosystem developing anytime soon.

Image
Last edited by SageBrush on Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

GRA
Posts: 11910
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jul 02, 2019 5:52 pm

It'll be interesting what Tesla does with U.S. prices now that they've lost another $1,875 in tax credit. Will they drop them again? Can they afford to?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

lorenfb
Posts: 2421
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jul 02, 2019 5:53 pm

SageBrush wrote:Tesla accounted for ~ 85% of BEV sales in the USA in June.
I'm losing hope in a healthy EV ecosystem developing anytime soon.
Totally agree! Few here on MNL would, though.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 76K miles, 47 Ahrs, 5.0 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=73, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 10.3K miles, SOH 109Ahrs/115Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

cwerdna
Posts: 10509
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jul 04, 2019 7:03 pm

https://insideevs.com/news/358195/video ... idiculous/ (TFL guys) are having a terribly long wait to get a "fender bender" repaired. They got their estimate on April 18th and still have no car. It looks like it's going to be another 2 weeks + the time it'll take to get the rear glass installed (which got broken by the repair place in the process).

FWIW, a guy at my work who got into some accident w/his P3D (his fault, he'd rather not talk about the details and I'm not going to press him) is past 3 months his car has been out of his hands for repair, seemingly spending much of its time waiting for parts. It sounded serious enough that (IIRC), he needed to have it shipped via flatbed.

At a previous check (within the past two weeks), the body shop completed the work and said it "drives funny" and sent to Tesla. Tesla says it'll need some multi-kilobuck part and his insurance is balking asking if it really needs it.

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

golfcart
Posts: 458
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:08 am
Delivery Date: 21 Nov 2015
Location: Virginia Beach, VA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:31 am

It looks like they just dropped the price on the dual motor versions and made the white paint standard.

A white Model 3 performance is now "just" $55k... not a bad deal at all considering what you get, especially in states with additional $$ incentives.
2018 SV
Build Date: 2/18
Date in Service: 3/19

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:08 am

golfcart wrote:It looks like they just dropped the price on the dual motor versions and made the white paint standard.

A white Model 3 performance is now "just" $55k... not a bad deal at all considering what you get, especially in states with additional $$ incentives.
If I didn't already have my car I would be salivating over 310 mile, AWD, 4.4 Sec (0-60) for $48k before eligible tax credits.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

lorenfb
Posts: 2421
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:04 am

golfcart wrote:It looks like they just dropped the price on the dual motor versions and made the white paint standard.

A white Model 3 performance is now "just" $55k... not a bad deal at all considering what you get, especially in states with additional $$ incentives.
Can't be a weak demand problem, right? It's just Elon's consumer benevolence.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 76K miles, 47 Ahrs, 5.0 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=73, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 10.3K miles, SOH 109Ahrs/115Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:45 am

lorenfb wrote:
golfcart wrote:It looks like they just dropped the price on the dual motor versions and made the white paint standard.

A white Model 3 performance is now "just" $55k... not a bad deal at all considering what you get, especially in states with additional $$ incentives.
Can't be a weak demand problem, right? It's just Elon's consumer benevolence.
Back to trolling, I see.

How about:
1. price reduction to match tax credit reduction
2. passing on lower production costs to fuel next increase in production.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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