golfcart
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jul 17, 2019 10:35 am

SageBrush wrote: If I didn't already have my car I would be salivating over 310 mile, AWD, 4.4 Sec (0-60) for $48k before eligible tax credits.
Agreed, it makes both of the dual motor options a lot more attractive.

My Leaf lease will be up in 2.5 years at which point I'll either buy the Leaf, get a used Leaf+, or my hope is that the used dual motor Model3 get down under $30k by then... at which point I could probably justify buying one to my wife. My previous car, before the 2 Leaf, was a heavily modified 2002 WRX wagon and I really miss the performance.
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lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:25 am

SageBrush wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
golfcart wrote:It looks like they just dropped the price on the dual motor versions and made the white paint standard.

A white Model 3 performance is now "just" $55k... not a bad deal at all considering what you get, especially in states with additional $$ incentives.
Can't be a weak demand problem, right? It's just Elon's consumer benevolence.
Back to trolling, I see.

How about:
1. price reduction to match tax credit reduction
2. passing on lower production costs to fuel next increase in production.
Sure! Sorry I didn't realize you're the "keeper", Doc.

You might consider refuting these data:
The latest M3 June at 21,225.

And now for a reality check on the M3 demand:

Q4 2018
U.S. - 63K
ROW - 0

Q1 2019
U.S. - 23k
ROW - 28K

Q2 2019
U.S. - 45K
ROW - 33K

Key Conclusions:

1. M3 U.S. demand in Q2 of 2019 is still down relative to Q4 2018 by 29%.
2. M3 U.S. demand in Q1&Q2 only marginally increased by 8% over Q4 of 2018.
3. Without significant Q3 WW M3 sales increases, the M3 volume will reach a plateau of marginal future growth.
4. Will the increased sales volume (MS/MX/M3) of 32K units over Q1 overcome the GAAP loss per vehicle of $8K
Tesla had in Q1 of 2019? In a few weeks we'll know.
Last edited by lorenfb on Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 76K miles, 47 Ahrs, 5.0 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 10.3K miles, SOH 109Ahrs/115Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

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dgpcolorado
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:53 am

SageBrush wrote:If I didn't already have my car I would be salivating over 310 mile, AWD, 4.4 Sec (0-60) for $48k before eligible tax credits.
But then you wouldn't have your silver "unicorn" 3!
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SalisburySam
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:13 am

golfcart wrote:...my hope is that the used dual motor Model3 get down under $30k...
You bring up an interesting point. Since the vehicle is new there is little used car trading going on, the 3’s I do see for sale in the forums are for pretty high prices, especially if you factor in no Federal tax credit for a used vehicle and recent new car price drops. I too wonder how that will change when early Model 3’s are 3-4 years old and have begun to turnover. The really good news is that battery depreciation for a Model 3 a few years old should be minimal at worst. Fun time to be in.
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golfcart
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jul 19, 2019 3:55 am

That’s the dream. I love my leaf, it is a great car, I would love a dual motor NISMO plus performance version with 400+ hp.... but there is no indication that Nissan is headed that way.

A used dual motor model 3 may be my best opportunity for a sports car that is electric and I can afford. With new ones down to $48k I think that makes a $30k used one realistic in 2022 when my lease is up.
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Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jul 19, 2019 12:57 pm

With earnings coming out next week. Anyone want to hazard a guess on guidance for Q3?

I'm going to throw out 96k-105k (w/ model 3 at 80k-85k globally)

@lorenfb, you're welcome to participate, but at least have the decency to throw down a number, because I think we all already know how you feel about Tesla in general and their guidance in particular.
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palmermd
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jul 19, 2019 2:03 pm

this seems more like a Tesla corporate discussion thread topic.
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Nubo
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jul 19, 2019 4:34 pm

lorenfb wrote:
golfcart wrote:It looks like they just dropped the price on the dual motor versions and made the white paint standard.

A white Model 3 performance is now "just" $55k... not a bad deal at all considering what you get, especially in states with additional $$ incentives.
Can't be a weak demand problem, right? It's just Elon's consumer benevolence.
Price stays the same = "Tesla just makes overpriced toys for the rich and is in imminent danger of failing"
Price drops = "Tesla is desperate for cash and is in imminent danger of failing"

:lol:
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

SageBrush
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jul 19, 2019 6:37 pm

Nubo wrote: :lol:
:lol: :lol:
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GRA
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Jul 20, 2019 4:49 pm

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:
Ah yes, they say they know the answer, but still no discussion about what the answer was, or what "charge and thermal management settings" were changed.
Yup. I expect we'll have to wait for owners to post on TMC to find out what effect the changes have. Presumably it will slow charging and/or up cooling, and at least the first will make owners unhappy.
IEVS:
Tesla Model S Shanghai Fire, Range, And Charge Issues Seem Connected
https://insideevs.com/news/360878/model ... te-issues/
Tesla owners’ complaints pile up while they wait for an official answer.

Last April, a Tesla Model S burst into flames in Shanghai. By the end of June, Tesla released the results of their analysis on the accident and announced an update to improve the battery pack's lifespan. Since May, many owners of vehicles with the same battery pack – already discontinued – have been complaining about recharging times. And of less range. These events could be totally unrelated, but it seems are closely tied.

According to the Norwegian website Tek.no, Cato Standal left his Model S P85 in a Tesla shop a little before Easter (April 21) to have something in its steering system fixed. After getting the car, he had to take it back for another repair.

Standal thought it was something with the painting, but, after four weeks, he sent the shop an email and discovered the car's battery pack had error messages. Two more weeks passed before he could get his Model S back.

That was when he discovered the whole battery pack had been replaced by a new one. But it was a smaller one, with 67 kWh instead of 85 kWh. Strangely, the number series of the battery pack indicated it had an 85 kWh capacity, even if this pack is not offered since 2016.

That is one of the pieces of evidence that led Standal to believe the restriction is software-based. But not the strongest one.

What makes me be 100 percent certain that this is a software limitation is that now I have full regeneration even if the battery is fully charged. That has never happened before,” Standal told Tek.no. “If the battery was 100 percent charged, you would not get more power.”

The fact is that Standal’s battery replacement case is not the only one. Tek.no says there were others in Norway, the market with the biggest EV share in the world – 57.8 percent of all cars sold in June. But those are only the most extreme cases.

Other Tesla owners report that, after the software updates 2019.16.1 or 2019.16.2, the range of their cars fell around 10 percent. When it is not shorter, it takes much more time to recharge.

Charging speed has been significantly reduced. And it gets worse in Superchargers, at a State of Charge superior to 70 percent. It can take 30 to 45 minutes more than it used to take,” Richard Lopes, a Portuguese owner of a Model S 85, told us.

Threads on Tesla forums on the problem spread by the dozens since May 13, as an article from Electrek shows. David Rassmussen has been making a detailed report on the battery pack capacity of his Model S and his graphic shows a steep decrease all of a sudden.

On June 3, the user Dutchmeeuw started a thread on the Tesla Motors Club community that is called “Sudden Loss Of Range With 2019.16.x Software”. It is currently on its 86th page. And counting. A clear demonstration that the problem is affecting a lot of people.

Tesla is telling most of them that this is a natural degradation of the battery pack, but its clients are not buying that. And some are so mad that the automaker changed the car’s specs without asking that they are threatening to sue the company. . . .

The Norwegian website states the problem affects mostly P85D Model S and Model X units, but also cars with 60 kWh, 70 kWh, and 90 kWh battery packs. . . .

Tek.no has tried to contact Tesla in Norway, but Tesla’s communications manager in the country, Even Sandvold Roland, declined to comment if the updates, battery replacements and slower charging times have anything to do with the Shanghai Tesla incident.

One thing is certain: having nothing to declare is most of the times seen not as a denial, but as tacit confirmation. . . .

As Lopes told us, “the lack of answers worsens a perfectly avoidable situation.” Incomplete ones tend not to help as well. . . .
See the graphs in the article, which show gradual degradation in 100% range until it falls off a cliff after the update.
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