GRA wrote: ↑
Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:44 pm
WetEV wrote: ↑
Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:03 pm
Nor does usefulness. The average time someone owns a new car is much shorter than the average life of a car. And with a 500,000 mile battery, I'd guess high socio-economic class will eventually not give one single flying fork about taking care of the battery. After all, it will have little impact on the resale or end of lease. Year 8, 100,000 miles might matter to some fraction of those buying. Those of us that own cars for 10 to 12 years are a minority. Fewer still are those that might buy a new car and keep it for 500,000 miles.
You did see where the average age of the U.S. LDV fleet is now 11.9 years, with 1/4 of them 16 years or more. Whether or not one individual owns a car through its life, it's clear that cars need to remain viable for any usage the owners might want to take for 15 years or more if that car is to be seen as useful.
That is an amusing statement. Old cars just are not as good and new cars. They break down more, they burn more gas (and oil), they pollute more, they don't drive as nicely, they are less safe at higher speeds, and various systems might no longer function. AC broke? Open the windows. Advertised as "it runs". That's why they are cheaper.
Electric cars are not going to age exactly the same way as gas cars have. More than likely will run trouble free until they just die.
Range will decrease, but many elderly and/or poor people don't travel all that much. My Grandfather never left the small town in Kansas he lived in during the last decades of his life. Visit all the corners of the town, and that would be under 10 miles. Grocery, pharmacy, friends, church, and hospital. I don't have a log, of course, but doubt if he drove more than 4 miles in any day.
My sister-in-law lives in a small town in New England. Longest trip she has taken in the past decade was to visit her mom in the hospital. About 40 miles one way. Very unlikely to take a longer trip. Unless her husband dies, she can't be away from home for more than a few hours. He doesn't leave home, unless to go to doctor or hospital.
Many people, IF ELECTRIC CARS WERE COMMON
, would be happy with a quarter of the range of a 2020 Model 3LR. If cheap to buy and reliable.
GRA wrote: ↑
Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:44 pm
Or do you believe there's a big used market for cars with 24 or at best 30 kWh LEAF range here?As the people who need to buy used cars tend to be unable to afford multiple ones for specialized purposes, that seems unlikely to me. But then you were claiming that range isn't compelling, and I (and Elon, among others) obviously differ with you on that.
Depends of the future, doesn't it? And the future isn't like the past, but sometimes it rhymes.
Consider the past, and the current market for ICE cars.
First owner often owns for 3-6 years, perhaps 60,000 to 100,000 miles. Then sells it for something new, or returns it at end of lease.
Second owner often owns it until 8 to 12 years, and sells it as it still has some value and is starting to get expensive to maintain.
Third owner drives it until it breaks, or needs an expensive repair soon, or serious rust, or ...
Fourth owner can't afford anything better, and "it runs". Until it doesn't.
So how do used electric cars play out? Oh, not now, in 40 years. Might it rhyme that?
Electric car of the future, with a battery that might give 1,000,000 miles, or only 300,000 if passively cooled? How might that play out over the life of a car? Other parts of the car are likely to fail first, even if passively cooled. If the wheels fall off, the value of the car might be the salvage value of the battery.