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evnow
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Re: $40K Tesla Electric Car Debut Possible at 2015 NAIAS

Fri May 16, 2014 2:19 pm

2048Megabytes wrote:If Tesla could produce a $40,000 car that gets at least 140 miles of range I think they would get more business. Most people in this economy just cannot afford $60,000 for a car.
Tesla will not make a car that gets less than 200 mile EV range - since that complicates SuperCharger network infrastructure (which assumes certain range for their cars).
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Zythryn
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Re: $40K Tesla Electric Car Debut Possible at 2015 NAIAS

Fri May 16, 2014 2:59 pm

2048Megabytes wrote:If Tesla could produce a $40,000 car that gets at least 140 miles of range I think they would get more business. Most people in this economy just cannot afford $60,000 for a car.
They don't want much more demand for their cars right now. They have moved from selling 2500 cars over 3-4 years to 25k a year.
Until they get some more funds from sales of the Model S and X they need to focus on growing their infrastructure, sales and service to support a much larger fleet.
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dgpcolorado
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Re: $40K Tesla Electric Car Debut Possible at 2015 NAIAS

Sat May 17, 2014 10:16 am

evnow wrote:Tesla will not make a car that gets less than 200 mile EV range - since that complicates SuperCharger network infrastructure (which assumes certain range for their cars).
I wonder about that. It seems unrealistic to get a 200 mile (EPA) range car for under $40k in the next three to four years. My assumption (WAG) was that Tesla would have a base model that has a lower range and then an upgraded model at greater cost that would also be Supercharger capable. (Much as they tried to do with the original three battery sizes with the Model S.)

However, I'd love for you to be right; if they can produce a 200 mile (EPA) range car for under $40k, great! Time for a pizza bet? ;)
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Re: $40K Tesla Electric Car Debut Possible at 2015 NAIAS

Sat May 17, 2014 11:13 am

dgpcolorado wrote:I wonder about that. It seems unrealistic to get a 200 mile (EPA) range car for under $40k in the next three to four years. My assumption (WAG) was that Tesla would have a base model that has a lower range and then an upgraded model at greater cost that would also be Supercharger capable.
Going by Tesla/Musk's track record with the S, my guess is that the real answer is that their $40,000 car is:
1) After $7500 rebate
2) Stripped down features (no NAV, backup camera, etc)
3) Only white or black non-metallic paint
4) no access to the Supercharger network, and no fast-charge capability
5) This low-end, $40,000 model will be the LAST in production, after all the $50-80,000 models are manufactured first.
6) Slower acceleration than upscaled models
7) Tesla will then kill production of the "$40,000" base model, citing "lack of demand". :?
These are all the things that soured me on the S, so I'm not expecting much to come of this new entry. I hope they prove me wrong.
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Zythryn
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Re: $40K Tesla Electric Car Debut Possible at 2015 NAIAS

Sat May 17, 2014 12:59 pm

Musk has been very clear the price is for the base model.
Afaik, anytime any company quotes a price for a lineup of cars it is always base price.
He has also stated that the $35k price target is without tax incentives. The first few might still qualify, but Tesla should be bumping into the 200k number pretty soon after release of the gen 3.

Why in the world would you expect a young automaker to make a model that gets less than 2% of the orders?
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Re: $40K Tesla Electric Car Debut Possible at 2015 NAIAS

Sat May 17, 2014 2:36 pm

keydiver wrote:
dgpcolorado wrote:I wonder about that. It seems unrealistic to get a 200 mile (EPA) range car for under $40k in the next three to four years. My assumption (WAG) was that Tesla would have a base model that has a lower range and then an upgraded model at greater cost that would also be Supercharger capable.
Going by Tesla/Musk's track record with the S, my guess is that the real answer is that their $40,000 car is:
1) After $7500 rebate
2) Stripped down features (no NAV, backup camera, etc)
3) Only white or black non-metallic paint
4) no access to the Supercharger network, and no fast-charge capability
5) This low-end, $40,000 model will be the LAST in production, after all the $50-80,000 models are manufactured first.
6) Slower acceleration than upscaled models
7) Tesla will then kill production of the "$40,000" base model, citing "lack of demand". :?
Close but I'd change that to
1) After $7500 rebate
2) Stripped down features (maybe a 10" center console instead of the 17"?)
3) Only white or black non-metallic paint, Other colors will be a $750 upgrade like on the Model S
4) access to the Supercharger network will cost $2000 extra just like on the Model S
5) This low-end, $40,000 model will be LATER in production, after all the $70-80,000 models are manufactured first, and possibly after some of the $60,000 versions but they'll be pumping them out at maximum rate and the early birds get more bugs so if you want one it won't hurt to wait a bit.
6) Slower acceleration than upscaled models (so what, it'll still be a nicer car than a Leaf or Prius)
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keydiver
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Re: $40K Tesla Electric Car Debut Possible at 2015 NAIAS

Sat May 17, 2014 2:38 pm

Zythryn wrote:Why in the world would you expect a young automaker to make a model that gets less than 2% of the orders?
IMHO, the Base S got only 4% of the orders because of what I listed above. They only canceled production MONTHS AFTER they dropped the bomb and made the base model useless. :x At that point, most people who wanted a base model either canceled the order or upgraded to the next level. Or, many like me who hadn't yet put down a deposit just walked away. They didn't WANT to sell a $50,000 S, and I think they only have themselves to blame for only 4% requesting a base model.
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evnow
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Re: $40K Tesla Electric Car Debut Possible at 2015 NAIAS

Sat May 17, 2014 10:43 pm

1) After $7500 rebate - no
2) Stripped down features (no NAV, backup camera, etc) - yes
3) Only white or black non-metallic paint - possible
4) no access to the Supercharger network, and no fast-charge capability - no
5) This low-end, $40,000 model will be the LAST in production, after all the $50-80,000 models are manufactured first. - yes
6) Slower acceleration than upscaled models - yes
7) Tesla will then kill production of the "$40,000" base model, citing "lack of demand". :? - no
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Re: $40K Tesla Electric Car Debut Possible at 2015 NAIAS

Sat May 17, 2014 10:51 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:
evnow wrote:Tesla will not make a car that gets less than 200 mile EV range - since that complicates SuperCharger network infrastructure (which assumes certain range for their cars).
I wonder about that. It seems unrealistic to get a 200 mile (EPA) range car for under $40k in the next three to four years. My assumption (WAG) was that Tesla would have a base model that has a lower range and then an upgraded model at greater cost that would also be Supercharger capable. (Much as they tried to do with the original three battery sizes with the Model S.)

However, I'd love for you to be right; if they can produce a 200 mile (EPA) range car for under $40k, great! Time for a pizza bet? ;)
I've heard somewhere that Tesla only pays about 250 per kWh for its cells, so that's only $15,000 for the pack if it's a 60. That's totally doable. I bet they could do it now. But why? It would just sell out because Panasonic can't make the cells fast enough to even meet Model S demand. They might as well ride the current model demand until Nissan decides to put out something with some range. Plus, they have some buyback price floor set on used Model Ses. That would tank their value.

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Re: $40K Tesla Electric Car Debut Possible at 2015 NAIAS

Sat May 17, 2014 10:52 pm

Don't be pessimistic - the backup camera is now mandated. ;-)
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