edatoakrun wrote:I just don't think many BEV buyers who do have access to DC chargers will want to haul around an extra ~500 pounds and ~ $5,000 worth of (constantly depreciating and degrading) batteries every day, just so they can drive slightly longer before refueling, on the few days a year they drive more than 100-150 miles.
Can't disagree more... many folks really would be happy to pay another 10-20% for 50-100% more range...
But a cost increase of "...10-20% for 50-100% more range" is not a realistic possibility, IMO.
Doubling the available battery capacity from ~25 to ~50 kWh (which is ~ the minimum required for 200 mile EPA range) does not double the range, since efficiency declines with not only the increased weight of the battery, but due to the larger structural components and the larger tire contact area required by a heavier vehicle.
And I think a fair estimate is that larger battery packs (including the associated Vehicle upgrades required to support them) probably will add ~$300 per kWh by 2017, or roughly $7,500 to the cost of a ~25 kWh ~120 mile EPA range ~$25,000 (post-tax credit) BEV, to get a ~$32,500 (post-tax credit) ~200 mile range ~50 kWh BEV.
Any additional State and local incentives would increase the cost differential above 30%, of course.
So, the question is, will BEV buyers want to increase their initial costs ~30% or more (and the TCO considerably more than that) for that range increase.
Once DC charge stations are anywhere near as ubiquitous as Gas stations, I doubt it.
...You can make economic arguments, but just look at the number of single passenger SUV's and light trucks out there, economics wither compared to aspirational buying.
I have been thinking the same thing, maybe BEV makers will succeed in convincing BEV buyers they need more range than they actually do, just as they have managed to convince so many folks they need three ton SUVs, to pick up groceries.
Why Wouldn't every BEV manufacturer want to convince every
buyer they want a ~ $40k 200 mile range 50 kWh battery (or even larger!) BEV, rather than the more efficient and less expensive BEV with the lower kWh battery pack, that most people actually need?