smkettner
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Re: WSJ, AutoNews: GM Shows 200 Mile Chevy Bolt Concept

Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:45 am

Looks like just four seats to me.
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edatoakrun
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Re: WSJ, AutoNews: GM Shows 200 Mile Chevy Bolt Concept

Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:08 pm

...The all-electric Bolt boasts a groundbreaking combination of low price and long driving range. It will sell in the low $30,000s, after government incentives, and travel up to 200 miles on a battery charge, Mark Reuss, GM's executive vice president for global product development, said in an interview with The Times.

"The Bolt breaks the barrier on range anxiety," Reuss said...
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/l ... story.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

IMO, GM really stunted the outlook for the Volt gen 2 by introducing the Bolt today.

Isn't "range anxiety" exactly what GM has been promoting for the last ~5 years, in order to sell its Volt PHEV?

How is GM expecting to be able to sell 2017 Volts, with only ~50 mile Electric range, at ~the same price as ~200 mile range 2017 Bolt BEVs?

My hope is that Nissan will introduce a gen 2 LEAF with ~24-36 (available) kWh and ~100-150 EPA) range, and sells it for ~$10k less than either of the GM offerings.
Last edited by edatoakrun on Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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GetOffYourGas
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Re: WSJ, AutoNews: GM Shows 200 Mile Chevy Bolt Concept

Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:13 pm

edatoakrun wrote:How is GM expecting to be able to sell 2017 Volts, with only ~50 mile Electric range, at ~the same price as ~200 mile range 2017 Bolt BEVs?
The Volt will sell better than the Bolt in any market which lacks QC infrastructure. And today that's most of them.

Plus, many people don't want to wait for 45 minutes every 160 miles, even if there was a charger there. It's much more convenient taking 5 minutes to gas up every 350 miles. And the Volt can still do most commutes as 100% electric.

I'm pretty sure that there will be plenty of market for both of them.
~Brian

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edatoakrun
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Re: WSJ, AutoNews: GM Shows 200 Mile Chevy Bolt Concept

Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:17 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:How is GM expecting to be able to sell 2017 Volts, with only ~50 mile Electric range, at ~the same price as ~200 mile range 2017 Bolt BEVs?
The Volt will sell better than the Bolt in any market which lacks QC infrastructure. And today that's most of them...
And By 2017, what US markets do you expect will not have some DC infrastructure?

Anyway, assuming GM plans to build the Bolt in large numbers, I believe it has the market almost half-right.

I just don't think many BEV buyers who do have access to DC chargers will want to haul around an extra ~500 pounds and ~ $5,000 worth of (constantly depreciating and degrading) batteries every day, just so they can drive slightly longer before refueling, on the few days a year they drive more than 100-150 miles.
Last edited by edatoakrun on Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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EVDRIVER
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Re: WSJ, AutoNews: GM Shows 200 Mile Chevy Bolt Concept

Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:21 pm

pkulak wrote:If it's out end of 2017, then it's not even worth discussing at this point. That is a lifetime away in EV terms. Leaf 2.0 will be out by then, along with, most likely, the model III and probably at least a few more long-range EVs from other manufacturers (Kia or Hyundia, I'm thinking).

2 years is fast in EV years and likely before any LEAF would have that kind of range. Also, GM seems to get that 0-10 seconds is not acceptable for an EV. If Nissan releases a long range slow EV it's going to suffer with many buyers. I have never bought a single GM product but I would consider an EV if they pull off the right stuff.

Moof
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Re: WSJ, AutoNews: GM Shows 200 Mile Chevy Bolt Concept

Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:39 pm

edatoakrun wrote:I just don't think many BEV buyers who do have access to DC chargers will want to haul around an extra ~500 pounds and ~ $5,000 worth of (constantly depreciating and degrading) batteries every day, just so they can drive slightly longer before refueling, on the few days a year they drive more than 100-150 miles.
Can't disagree more. Once you factor in cold weather and some battery aging, an 80 mile range drops to 50-60'ish. Throw in the current chaotic and fractured charging networks and many folks really would be happy to pay another 10-20% for 50-100% more range. 80 miles is a economical sweet spot, but a psychological loser.

Long term I see DC fast chargers being helpful for long trips in the fashion of the Tesla charging stations, but useless in-town. A 100 mile minimum range (all weathers, and after 10 years of battery aging) cuts out the need for almost any Level 2 and lets you charge exclusively at home with no side trips to find juice. Level 2 makes sense for home, highway motels, and work, and very little elsewhere. Mass market appeal will necessitate minimal life style changes to get heavy EV adoption. The current 80 mile range is just not enough for folks to use it as their only car unless they want a bit more adventure.

You can make economic arguments, but just look at the number of single passenger SUV's and light trucks out there, economics wither compared to aspirational buying.
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nedfunnell
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Re: WSJ, AutoNews: GM Shows 200 Mile Chevy Bolt Concept

Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:42 pm

I wonder if it will have an (optional?) high-power charger. A 40kwh (guessing) car would take about seven hours to fill up with a 6.6kW charger, which takes ~30A input. I wonder if a 10kW charger would be available, as I think it'd significantly improve the utility of the car. That might make all the folks with 30A EVSEs at home sad, though. No difference in overnight charging, though.

smkettner
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Re: WSJ, AutoNews: GM Shows 200 Mile Chevy Bolt Concept

Mon Jan 12, 2015 1:22 pm

nedfunnell wrote:I wonder if it will have an (optional?) high-power charger. A 40kwh (guessing) car would take about seven hours to fill up with a 6.6kW charger, which takes ~30A input. I wonder if a 10kW charger would be available, as I think it'd significantly improve the utility of the car. That might make all the folks with 30A EVSEs at home sad, though. No difference in overnight charging, though.
I have 10kW OBC and 30 amp EVSE at home and quite happy with the set up. In the wild it is hard to find more than 30 amps so the 10kW has never been used at full throttle.
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV
RAV4 traded in for I-Pace Dec 2018

edatoakrun
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Re: WSJ, AutoNews: GM Shows 200 Mile Chevy Bolt Concept

Mon Jan 12, 2015 1:48 pm

Moof wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:I just don't think many BEV buyers who do have access to DC chargers will want to haul around an extra ~500 pounds and ~ $5,000 worth of (constantly depreciating and degrading) batteries every day, just so they can drive slightly longer before refueling, on the few days a year they drive more than 100-150 miles.
Can't disagree more... many folks really would be happy to pay another 10-20% for 50-100% more range...
But a cost increase of "...10-20% for 50-100% more range" is not a realistic possibility, IMO.

Doubling the available battery capacity from ~25 to ~50 kWh (which is ~ the minimum required for 200 mile EPA range) does not double the range, since efficiency declines with not only the increased weight of the battery, but due to the larger structural components and the larger tire contact area required by a heavier vehicle.

And I think a fair estimate is that larger battery packs (including the associated Vehicle upgrades required to support them) probably will add ~$300 per kWh by 2017, or roughly $7,500 to the cost of a ~25 kWh ~120 mile EPA range ~$25,000 (post-tax credit) BEV, to get a ~$32,500 (post-tax credit) ~200 mile range ~50 kWh BEV.

Any additional State and local incentives would increase the cost differential above 30%, of course.

So, the question is, will BEV buyers want to increase their initial costs ~30% or more (and the TCO considerably more than that) for that range increase.

Once DC charge stations are anywhere near as ubiquitous as Gas stations, I doubt it.
="Moof"
...You can make economic arguments, but just look at the number of single passenger SUV's and light trucks out there, economics wither compared to aspirational buying.
I have been thinking the same thing, maybe BEV makers will succeed in convincing BEV buyers they need more range than they actually do, just as they have managed to convince so many folks they need three ton SUVs, to pick up groceries.

Why Wouldn't every BEV manufacturer want to convince every buyer they want a ~ $40k 200 mile range 50 kWh battery (or even larger!) BEV, rather than the more efficient and less expensive BEV with the lower kWh battery pack, that most people actually need?
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Re: WSJ, AutoNews: GM Shows 200 Mile Chevy Bolt Concept

Mon Jan 12, 2015 1:59 pm

+1!
Moof wrote:Can't disagree more. Once you factor in cold weather and some battery aging, an 80 mile range drops to 50-60'ish. Throw in the current chaotic and fractured charging networks and many folks really would be happy to pay another 10-20% for 50-100% more range. 80 miles is a economical sweet spot, but a psychological loser.
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