GRA
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Re: Gen 2 GM Volt Plug-in Hybrid (2016+) MSRP $33,995

Mon May 04, 2015 5:10 pm

evnow wrote:
minispeed wrote:The leaf and volt gen 2 both have different expectations for their companies. Chev has always said they needed to save money on making the car that it needs to turn a profit. We see that with essentially a carry over battery design where most of the extra range is from opening up usable capacity. We also see that GM will start using the voltec drivetrain as a non PHEV in the Malibu hybrid and then going into new territory with the bolt. GM said back in 2012 I think they needed to take $10k out of the cost of the car. They then cut the price $5K so assuming they did this and dropped the price a bit there should be $4k or so in profit now.
That is the problem with companies like GM - they set low expectations. Atleast that is one thing we can't accuse Tesla of.

If plugins are to really take hold in the market, there need to be quantum improvements in generations - not marginal.

Of course the biggest problem with Volt is that it is the wrong form factor - even after seeing the runaway success of Outlander, why is no one coming up with a PHEV SUV ? (no, I'm not talking about SUVs in the Tesla price range).
In this case, GM (Dan Akerson) set high expectations, that they could get the price of the car down another $7-10k. I think they need(ed) to get the MSRP down to no more than $32k, but to overcome the psychological barrier and turn it into a really mass market car they need to get it down to no more than $30k. Maybe some more de-contenting is in the future, although I really wouldn't want to go with much less than what the LT's standard equipment plus the Comfort package has, as far as maximum utility goes. I expect this will boost sales demand and prices for the remaining 2015s, so another possibility is that GM would announce a 2nd gen. price cut after 6-12 months. The gotta-have-it-now customers will have paid full freight by then, and GM will need to entice the more practical, cost-conscious buyers after that.

Re the (AWD) PHEV SUV, we're on the same wavelength there.
Last edited by GRA on Mon May 04, 2015 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

BernieTx
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Re: Gen 2 GM Volt Plug-in Hybrid (2016+) MSRP $33,995

Mon May 04, 2015 5:45 pm

evnow wrote:...
If Leaf 2 has figures like this compared to Gen 1, it would be DOA. (30% more range, 3% price cut) I want
- 100% more range (atleast optionally)
- Double range for nearly the same price as top line model now
....
Are my expectations for Gen 2, too high ?
I think the entire market has expectations set too high. The Gen2 Leaf will compete with the Bolt, which start at $37k. Battery prices are coming down, but Leaf prices are already coming down too. Battery weight and volume aren't improving nearly as much. If Nissan goes all out on price for the Leaf2, they take a loss on 2015/2016 Leafs that haven't been sold yet, and they take a big loss on leased Leafs that they have to sell, and their reward is to sell the new models at closer to cost instead of making a profit to recoup their R&D investment. Plus, Nissan wins the race to 200,000 which means GM gets a bonus round to catch up while GM cars keep getting the $7500 rebate which Nissan has used up.

More realistically, expect the high end model to have a >2x battery but also a much higher price, especially compared with the entry 24kwh models, which will continue with modest upgrades and price reductions. I expect the Volt2 msrp to drop to about $32k late next year when the Bolt comes out, $5k less than a new Bolt, and I would expect the entry Leafs to be around $27k-$28k. Factor in the $7500 federal rebate and these cars are very reasonably priced.
2014 Chevy Volt ...

GRA
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Re: Gen 2 GM Volt Plug-in Hybrid (2016+) MSRP $33,995

Tue May 05, 2015 6:51 pm

Some good info here on the differences between the Gen 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 batteries, via ievs:
2016 Chevrolet Volt – Technical Battery Slides Video
http://insideevs.com/2016-chevrolet-vol ... des-video/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

DanCar
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Re: Gen 2 GM Volt Plug-in Hybrid (2016+) MSRP $33,995

Wed May 06, 2015 11:37 am

evnow wrote:...
If Leaf 2 has figures like this compared to Gen 1, it would be DOA. I want
- 100% more range (at least optionally)
- Double range for nearly the same price as top line model now
- Non-polarizing looks

Are my expectations for Gen 2, too high ?
Yes, expectations too high for 2016, o.k. for 2017. Interesting how expectations have changed from two years ago: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=12208" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
evnow wrote:...8% improvement per year...
2013 Leaf SL leased 3/10/2013
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evnow
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Re: Gen 2 GM Volt Plug-in Hybrid (2016+) MSRP $33,995

Wed May 06, 2015 4:33 pm

DanCar wrote:Yes, expectations too high for 2016, o.k. for 2017.
Leaf 2 would be a MY17 car.
Interesting how expectations have changed from two years ago: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=12208" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
evnow wrote:...8% improvement per year...
Interesting - I should revive that thread to see where people think we'll be in 2018.

8% improvement would mean about 60% improvement in range by MY17 (compared to MY11). This would translate to a range of 130 by MY17, instead of 170. I'm actually looking for about 150 EPA miles of range for Leaf 2, even though I say nominally double the range.

Volt MY11 had a range of 35 miles. MY16 Volt will have 50 - which interestingly is bang on 8% annual improvement.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

GRA
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Re: Gen 2 GM Volt Plug-in Hybrid (2016+) MSRP $33,995

Wed May 06, 2015 4:57 pm

evnow wrote:<snip>
Interesting - I should revive that thread to see where people think we'll be in 2018.

8% improvement would mean about 60% improvement in range by MY17 (compared to MY11). This would translate to a range of 130 by MY17, instead of 170. I'm actually looking for about 150 EPA miles of range for Leaf 2, even though I say nominally double the range.

Volt MY11 had a range of 35 miles. MY16 Volt will have 50 - which interestingly is bang on 8% annual improvement.
Only a 17% improvement in Specific Energy per the link I provided a couple of posts back - the rest is due to opening out the usable SoC range, plus some efficiency improvements elsewhere. It remains to be seen how well the new battery will hold up over the long term, compared to the original using a smaller SoC range.
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LKK
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Re: Gen 2 GM Volt Plug-in Hybrid (2016+) MSRP $33,995

Thu May 07, 2015 10:59 am

GRA, in regards to how the Volt battery will hold up. The video in your previous post indicates that GM expects the gen 1 battery to retain around 75% of its capacity at 150,000 miles. The gen 2 battery is slightly better. This is about 13 years for an average driver.

BernieTx
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Re: Gen 2 GM Volt Plug-in Hybrid (2016+) MSRP $33,995

Thu May 07, 2015 12:35 pm

LKK wrote:GRA, in regards to how the Volt battery will hold up. The video in your previous post indicates that GM expects the gen 1 battery to retain around 75% of its capacity at 150,000 miles. The gen 2 battery is slightly better. This is about 13 years for an average driver.
The graph scale goes from 60% to 100%. I measured the pixels; the numbers are quite impressive. I think MY2013-15 Volts count as a gen1.5
87% capacity: gen2 Volt at 150k miles
85% capacity: gen1.5 Volt at 150k miles
81% capacity: gen1.0 Volt at 150k miles

My '14 Volt, which lives in Texas with its hot summers, probably has a very long healthy life ahead of it... One of the things GM got right was putting in a liquid TMS system into the Volt :)
2014 Chevy Volt ...

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: Gen 2 GM Volt Plug-in Hybrid (2016+) MSRP $33,995

Thu May 07, 2015 12:59 pm

BernieTx wrote:One of the things GM got right was putting in a liquid TMS system into the Volt :)
And a backup gasoline engine!
LTL
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[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
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GRA
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Re: Gen 2 GM Volt Plug-in Hybrid (2016+) MSRP $33,995

Thu May 07, 2015 3:44 pm

LKK wrote:GRA, in regards to how the Volt battery will hold up. The video in your previous post indicates that GM expects the gen 1 battery to retain around 75% of its capacity at 150,000 miles. The gen 2 battery is slightly better. This is about 13 years for an average driver.
What a company expects and what customers actually see are often wildly at variance, as numerous LEAF owners can tell you :( Until these batteries get out into mass use and get the necessary years on them, we won't know for sure; all we (GM) have until then are the results of limited-scale accelerated tests designed to replicate, as much as possible, long-term battery use. That's helpful, but only real-world mass use will confirm that's how the batteries actually hold up. The oldest customer Volt battery has been in service less than 5 years, so everything beyond that is extrapolation and prediction. If GM were making use of the same SoC % on the Gen 2 battery as they did Gen 1, you might be able to put a bit more weight on the accuracy of their prediction, but since they are allowing a greater % SoC, they're introducing another variable into the equation beyond a tweaked chemistry.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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