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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 21, 2019 9:13 am

Everyone will tell you it's important to listen to your customers. That's true, but in Tesla's situation it may be increasingly important for them to listen to those who aren't their customers.
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EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 21, 2019 2:35 pm

smkettner wrote:
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
smkettner wrote:I will hold my breath until the 2nd quarter sales and financials are released.
Tesla has been in constant transition making it difficult to determine a trend.
I disagree. There is a strong trend. Here is what it looks like:

- semi-constant losses followed by
- occasional profitable quarter and promises of more of the same followed by
- more losses followed by
- promises of "next quarter it will be different"

This company has been promising pending, sustainable profits for many years. They have been unable to deliver. Here we are almost two years out from production start of the model 3 and all they can do is burn cash.

This is a very difficult business to break into as the numerous failed car companies attest to.
I agree if Tesla had stopped with the Model S.

I see Tesla as a sequential startup. Need to achieve critical mass before a steady cash flow or profit is seen. Could start to level out after Model Y is in production for 18 months but even then the Semi and pick-up will still be in startup mode. The stock price could fall dramatically before any real value is obtained.
They were a start-up with the roadster, maybe even with the S. They are over a decade old on their third complete vehicle. They are not a start up. They are simply an unprofitable automobile company.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 21, 2019 6:46 pm

Meh. Look at historical charts for Apple and Amazon. As my great aunt used to say it's a long road that doesn't have a turn. When Amazon dropped from 360 to 4 it was a good time to cover the short position, rather than waiting around for it to go back to 2000.

I can't help but think there are more than a few folks who wouldn't mind backing up the train. Tesla has their problems for sure, but betting against people finding solutions to problems is a risky proposition. There are many more chapters to be written in this story.
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cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed May 22, 2019 1:25 am

Wasn't sure if this should go here or one of the other Tesla threads.

Tesla brings back Free Unlimited Supercharging again to sell inventory cars
https://electrek.co/2019/05/21/tesla-fr ... tory-cars/

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed May 22, 2019 9:46 am

LTLFTcomposite wrote:Meh. Look at historical charts for Apple and Amazon. As my great aunt used to say it's a long road that doesn't have a turn. When Amazon dropped from 360 to 4 it was a good time to cover the short position, rather than waiting around for it to go back to 2000.

I can't help but think there are more than a few folks who wouldn't mind backing up the train. Tesla has their problems for sure, but betting against people finding solutions to problems is a risky proposition. There are many more chapters to be written in this story.
TSLA is compared constantly to Amazon. I have no idea why. People can easily call to mind Amazon, which is now an insanely successful company and has beat out literally millions of others, as if their path is somehow cleared for Tesla.

More than likely Tesla will be like most other automobile companies or tech companies. Why do people so readily compare Tesla to Amazon instead of to Delorean? It has much more in common with that company.

Tesla is not a start-up but it is being run like one. It's one thing to release a bad batch of code to a social media app, it's another when lives are in jeopardy. CR today wrote a blistering review of their latest navigate feature: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/22/consume ... cerns.html That review could hardly be worse, but it's not surprising to anybody who has seen the multitude of accident or near accident videos involving teslas.

Where the rubber meets the road Musk's increasingly lofty goals and claims become not just stretch goals but downright negligent. Tesla has been, for years, releasing autopilot code to cars that has not been sufficiently vetted and goes against the validation standards of arguably every other automobile manufacturer out there. What that navigate feature does there is what a tesla I drove did two years ago: almost cut somebody off on the highway. It's not enough to say "ultimately the driver is responsible".

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed May 22, 2019 11:19 am

IIRC Amazon started out selling books. In the 20 years since they've ventured out in directions far beyond their original premise. Nobody was talking about AWS in 1998.

Whether the potential for a similarly bright future for Tesla exists remains to be seen. I think there are possibly many ways they could make money that go beyond manufacturing and selling cars, and at substantially higher margins. The cars are merely enablers.

That said, I don't think they are well run. They have a futurist/dreamer/CTO-at-best type in charge, and that's a bad recipe, particularly when you get into mundane topics like mass marketing and manufacturing at scale. I don't see how that gets fixed, and it's scary.
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed May 22, 2019 12:33 pm

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu May 23, 2019 12:55 am

The only way autonomous driving is going to work any time soon is if the government indemnifies the automakers similarly to how they indemnified nuclear power plants. The point isn't whether the technology is better than the "average" driver. If it becomes a driverless conveyance then the manufacturer is liable for each and every accident. And they have nice deep pockets. The automation in that case has to be practically perfect, not just "better than average". That's a huge gulf.

This isn't a Tesla problem, it's a social problem driven by people who can't bear to be torn away from their smartphones, and the manufacturers have swallowed the Red Pill thinking it will lead them to the next Killer App. To quote Morpheus, "Ironically, this is not far from the truth".

Just drive, folks.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu May 23, 2019 2:54 am

cwerdna wrote:
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:Down 6%+ today, no end in sight.

I will repeat as I have before: anybody long this stock should not be. The price premium is too high and does not make sense
...
Its main strategy at this point appears to be the hyperbolic claims of its CEO.
Looks like the next level of support is around $180. If it goes below that, then looks like the next one is at around $140.

Agree with the part I quoted. Often, TSLA's price upward moves and trends are totally irrational.
Well, it closed at around $192 on May 22nd. It looks like in pre-markets right now, it's at about $185. Will be interesting to see if tests support at around $180 and holds or goes below it...
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:They were a start-up with the roadster, maybe even with the S. They are over a decade old on their third complete vehicle. They are not a start up. They are simply an unprofitable automobile company.
Agreed. Tesla was founded in 2003, supposedly July.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu May 23, 2019 8:09 am

Nubo wrote:The only way autonomous driving is going to work any time soon is if the government indemnifies the automakers similarly to how they indemnified nuclear power plants. The point isn't whether the technology is better than the "average" driver. If it becomes a driverless conveyance then the manufacturer is liable for each and every accident. And they have nice deep pockets. The automation in that case has to be practically perfect, not just "better than average". That's a huge gulf.

This isn't a Tesla problem, it's a social problem driven by people who can't bear to be torn away from their smartphones, and the manufacturers have swallowed the Red Pill thinking it will lead them to the next Killer App. To quote Morpheus, "Ironically, this is not far from the truth".

Just drive, folks.
Very good comment. We are years away from autonomous technology being legal and regulated. You're probably correct in that the company would likely be indemnified.

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