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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:48 pm

Anyone know, Is the earnings call available for all to hear? edit: never mind, I found it

We loaded the boat at 257.
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
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Zythryn
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:25 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:Anyone know, Is the earnings call available for all to hear? edit: never mind, I found it

We loaded the boat at 257.

Good call!
Shareholder’s letter: http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/725970 ... 2d4045f799

They had a fantastic quarter, shorts are going to be much less of an issue now that they are generating their own cash.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
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GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:02 pm

OTOH,
Tesla Model S Loses Consumer Reports Nod While Model 3 Rates Average
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... es-average
. . . Lowest-ranked brands this year are Volvo, Cadillac and Tesla. . . .

Model S reliability has declined as owners have reported suspension problems and issues with door handles; the Model X SUV remains much worse than average, due to its balky falcon-wing doors and center display screen. . . .
So, encouraging news on the corporate side, but QC is still an issue. Now, can they be consistently profitable going forward, once the lower-margin Model 3 versions dominate sales?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:51 pm

I listened to the investor call in its entirety and am becoming a full-fledged fanbois. In the Coulda-shoulda-woulda Department I wish I had the money back that I wasted on a leaf and I'd be getting a model 3 now. That's okay as the stock price climbs and the price of the cars drops it won't be too long until the lines cross and I can get one.
I think today will be remembered as a watershed moment in the company's history when not just the true believers were proven right but it became apparent to all that this company is on a sustainable path not only to survival but also to insane growth.
I always believed in what they were doing but I had my doubts about their ability to pull it off. The latter is no longer the case.
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue
2016 SV-adjacent May 2016 lost 4th bar March 2018

GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Oct 24, 2018 5:01 pm

Via IEVS:
Popular Mechanics Defends Tesla CEO Elon Musk And His Endeavors
https://insideevs.com/popular-mechanics ... elon-musk/

The original article is from Evannex, which is such a Tesla booster that I find most of their articles a complete waste of time, but this one is largely quotes from PM, and I agree with the general tenor.
Last edited by GRA on Sat Oct 27, 2018 3:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

webb14leafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:38 am

Zythryn wrote:
LTLFTcomposite wrote:Anyone know, Is the earnings call available for all to hear? edit: never mind, I found it

We loaded the boat at 257.

Good call!
Shareholder’s letter: http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/725970 ... 2d4045f799

They had a fantastic quarter, shorts are going to be much less of an issue now that they are generating their own cash.
The shorts still have some ammunition (Note that I am personally long on Tesla). They see this quarter as a best case scenario and believe Tesla can't sustain this sales volume of premium versions of the Model 3. Also, significant debt will have to be incurred to fund new manufacturing plants in Europe and China. This will leave the company extremely vulnerable to any decline in market conditions. These are very solid points, but I believe Tesla can sustain their current volume for several more quarters AND figure out a way to sell the base model at a profit. The Model Y will be a serious game changer, as the delta between it and other ICE vehicles in the segment will be much less. If we can avoid a recession before its release, Tesla's quarterly earnings could be in the billions within 2 years.

I might be wrong, and I can accept that.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:00 am

^ Agree, they seem to have turned the corner on being able to scale. The conference call gave me the distinct impression the adults are in charge now.

Also agree on the model Y. Model 3 being the best selling car was certainly made easier by the fact that cars per se have fallen from favor, eg Altimas have been pushed aside by Rogues and the same story is playing out across all brands. That Tesla is doing so well without even having the form factor most people want these days is pretty amazing, wait until they have compact crossover... any concern over demand/sales faltering will be completely gone.
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue
2016 SV-adjacent May 2016 lost 4th bar March 2018

webb14leafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:47 am

LTLFTcomposite wrote:^ Agree, they seem to have turned the corner on being able to scale. The conference call gave me the distinct impression the adults are in charge now.

Also agree on the model Y. Model 3 being the best selling car was certainly made easier by the fact that cars per se have fallen from favor, eg Altimas have been pushed aside by Rogues and the same story is playing out across all brands. That Tesla is doing so well without even having the form factor most people want these days is pretty amazing, wait until they have compact crossover... any concern over demand/sales faltering will be completely gone.
I totally agree. I think the biggest concern for the model 3 is the loss of the tax rebate. I don't think it's as big of a deal for the Model Y, as consumers are already used to paying ~ $35K for a mainstream crossover. If Tesla can keep the base price at around $42K it won't be that big of a deal.

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:00 am

LTLFTcomposite wrote:they seem to have turned the corner on being able to scale.
Really? And besides your feelings, e.g. "they seem", what specifically, i.e. production capacity coming on-line in the next six months,
is the basis for that conclusion? Tesla has the balance of 2018 and Q1 of 2019 to "milk" the backlog (reservations) for about 100K
of the $50K+ M3s. After that they'll have to lower the price way below $45K to just fully utilize their present limited output of about
5K per week. So Q1 of 2019 probably will have another positive GAAP, but the balance of 2019 becomes a real issue. Furthermore,
the MS/MX appear to now have reached a plateau of about 10K per month, i.e. no growth there for Tesla. Based on the gross profit
of 20% for the M3 selling at $50K+ in this Q3, that basically indicates marginal profit at delivered M3s at less than $40K. Combine that
with the expiration of the tax credit, an actual backlog greater than 200K is highly questionable. Yes, Tesla probably will be able to
squeeze about another 5 to at most 10% more profitability from the M3, but that's about it.
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webb14leafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:58 am

lorenfb wrote:
LTLFTcomposite wrote:they seem to have turned the corner on being able to scale.
Really? And besides your feelings, e.g. "they seem", what specifically, i.e. production capacity coming on-line in the next six months,
is the basis for that conclusion? Tesla has the balance of 2018 and Q1 of 2019 to "milk" the backlog (reservations) for about 100K
of the $50K+ M3s. After that they'll have to lower the price way below $45K to just fully utilize their present limited output of about
5K per week. So Q1 of 2019 probably will have another positive GAAP, but the balance of 2019 becomes a real issue. Furthermore,
the MS/MX appear to now have reached a plateau of about 10K per month, i.e. no growth there for Tesla. Based on the gross profit
of 20% for the M3 selling at $50K+ in this Q3, that basically indicates marginal profit at delivered M3s at less than $40K. Combine that
with the expiration of the tax credit, an actual backlog greater than 200K is highly questionable. Yes, Tesla probably will be able to
squeeze about another 5 to at most 10% more profitability from the M3, but that's about it.
Not sure why people can't keep these conversations civil. We are all prognosticating markets and margins. There is no right or wrong, only how I interpret the information. There are plenty of reasons to doubt AND trumpet Tesla's outlook.

For me - I believe that Tesla can sustainably sell 200K-250K premium model 3s each year. This is based on global sales of competing brands in the premium mid-sized sedan category (BMW 3-Series, Mercedes C class, Audi A4), which Tesla is absolutely dominating right now. This means their current earnings are sustainable, but this in no way justifies their market cap. If they want to get to 500K to 1M, they need to produce the base model for $35K. If they want to get to 2M, they need to build new manufacturing plants, and possibly create a hatchback M3 for the European market. I believe production and ramp of Model Y will be similar to, if not slightly better than the Model 3. I also believe it will sell at higher volume and margins than the Model 3, and by sometime in 2021 their earnings will be in the $1Billion range.

Yes - I could very well be wrong about all of this, but investors take the info they have available to them and make a decision. I respect everyone's differing opinions and investment decisions. At the end of the day I am investing in what I believe Tesla CAN BE, not what they currently are.

Keep in mind that Tesla has thus far achieved everything it set out to do, just not on the ridiculous timeline that Musk spits out. Also keep in mind that they STILL have no competition. Other brands are either selling EVs in low volumes at a loss, or are tossing out specs and timelines that make Elon's predictions seem reasonable. The VW Neo could do some damage, but Tesla might be producing their pick-up truck before it hits the street. Toyota mentioned solid state batteries a couple years ago, and it's been crickets ever since.

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