LTLFTcomposite wrote:Anyone know, Is the earnings call available for all to hear? edit: never mind, I found it
We loaded the boat at 257.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... es-averageTesla Model S Loses Consumer Reports Nod While Model 3 Rates Average
So, encouraging news on the corporate side, but QC is still an issue. Now, can they be consistently profitable going forward, once the lower-margin Model 3 versions dominate sales?. . . Lowest-ranked brands this year are Volvo, Cadillac and Tesla. . . .
Model S reliability has declined as owners have reported suspension problems and issues with door handles; the Model X SUV remains much worse than average, due to its balky falcon-wing doors and center display screen. . . .
https://insideevs.com/popular-mechanics ... elon-musk/Popular Mechanics Defends Tesla CEO Elon Musk And His Endeavors
The shorts still have some ammunition (Note that I am personally long on Tesla). They see this quarter as a best case scenario and believe Tesla can't sustain this sales volume of premium versions of the Model 3. Also, significant debt will have to be incurred to fund new manufacturing plants in Europe and China. This will leave the company extremely vulnerable to any decline in market conditions. These are very solid points, but I believe Tesla can sustain their current volume for several more quarters AND figure out a way to sell the base model at a profit. The Model Y will be a serious game changer, as the delta between it and other ICE vehicles in the segment will be much less. If we can avoid a recession before its release, Tesla's quarterly earnings could be in the billions within 2 years.Zythryn wrote:LTLFTcomposite wrote:Anyone know, Is the earnings call available for all to hear? edit: never mind, I found it
We loaded the boat at 257.
Shareholder’s letter: http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/725970 ... 2d4045f799
They had a fantastic quarter, shorts are going to be much less of an issue now that they are generating their own cash.
I totally agree. I think the biggest concern for the model 3 is the loss of the tax rebate. I don't think it's as big of a deal for the Model Y, as consumers are already used to paying ~ $35K for a mainstream crossover. If Tesla can keep the base price at around $42K it won't be that big of a deal.LTLFTcomposite wrote:^ Agree, they seem to have turned the corner on being able to scale. The conference call gave me the distinct impression the adults are in charge now.
Also agree on the model Y. Model 3 being the best selling car was certainly made easier by the fact that cars per se have fallen from favor, eg Altimas have been pushed aside by Rogues and the same story is playing out across all brands. That Tesla is doing so well without even having the form factor most people want these days is pretty amazing, wait until they have compact crossover... any concern over demand/sales faltering will be completely gone.
Really? And besides your feelings, e.g. "they seem", what specifically, i.e. production capacity coming on-line in the next six months,LTLFTcomposite wrote:they seem to have turned the corner on being able to scale.
Not sure why people can't keep these conversations civil. We are all prognosticating markets and margins. There is no right or wrong, only how I interpret the information. There are plenty of reasons to doubt AND trumpet Tesla's outlook.lorenfb wrote:Really? And besides your feelings, e.g. "they seem", what specifically, i.e. production capacity coming on-line in the next six months,LTLFTcomposite wrote:they seem to have turned the corner on being able to scale.
is the basis for that conclusion? Tesla has the balance of 2018 and Q1 of 2019 to "milk" the backlog (reservations) for about 100K
of the $50K+ M3s. After that they'll have to lower the price way below $45K to just fully utilize their present limited output of about
5K per week. So Q1 of 2019 probably will have another positive GAAP, but the balance of 2019 becomes a real issue. Furthermore,
the MS/MX appear to now have reached a plateau of about 10K per month, i.e. no growth there for Tesla. Based on the gross profit
of 20% for the M3 selling at $50K+ in this Q3, that basically indicates marginal profit at delivered M3s at less than $40K. Combine that
with the expiration of the tax credit, an actual backlog greater than 200K is highly questionable. Yes, Tesla probably will be able to
squeeze about another 5 to at most 10% more profitability from the M3, but that's about it.