iPlug
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:23 pm

Nubo wrote:
iPlug wrote:Most of the demand for the highest trim Model 3s are already behind us as well as the $7.5k tax credit. I am betting the market and consumers have already accounted for this. Taking reservations for the Model Y as soon as later this month would be a wise, well timed business move.

Musk later tweeted today: "Model Y, being an SUV, is about 10% bigger than Model 3, so will cost about 10% more & have slightly less range for same battery"

Would take that to mean 10% more expensive against all of the Model 3 trim levels. In the mean time, profit margins per vehicle should grow as the Y is based on the 3 platform and further automation and manufacturing improvements are incorporated.

Unleash that on the huge consumer appetite for crossover/SUV vehicles and sprinkle it with Tesla lust and you have a big winner on your hands.
EV adoption is in its earliest stages. To say that demand is exhausted ignores the 99% of car buyers who remain to be converted.
No, was referring to pent-up demand. If the Model Y was announced and pre-orders available before the beginning of this year, there could have been significant cannibalization.

Higher level trim versions of the Model 3 will continue to sell with growth in the general EV segment, but at significantly lower rates than in 2018 for some time.
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lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:42 pm

Nubo wrote: EV adoption is in its earliest stages. To say that demand is exhausted ignores the 99% of car buyers who remain to be converted.
Yes, and some sense of reality does occasionally appear in this thread.
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EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:59 am

evnow wrote: There is a reason dealers are fighting Tesla tooth & nail. They are afraid and with good reason. Funny enough, Tesla now says - only online ordering. So, what are the dealers going to do now ?
Nobody believes this online-only is from a position of strength; it is from a position of weakness.

Even in January Tesla was talking about its expansion plans for retail. Now suddenly it can't cover them, it has also stopped paying commissions on all sales positions (these made up more than half of the income for sales associates) and is shuttering stores already.

It's doing this because it is hemorrhaging money and desperately needs to keep blood pressure up before it passes out.

EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 04, 2019 5:04 am

iPlug wrote:
Nubo wrote:
iPlug wrote:Most of the demand for the highest trim Model 3s are already behind us as well as the $7.5k tax credit. I am betting the market and consumers have already accounted for this. Taking reservations for the Model Y as soon as later this month would be a wise, well timed business move.

Musk later tweeted today: "Model Y, being an SUV, is about 10% bigger than Model 3, so will cost about 10% more & have slightly less range for same battery"

Would take that to mean 10% more expensive against all of the Model 3 trim levels. In the mean time, profit margins per vehicle should grow as the Y is based on the 3 platform and further automation and manufacturing improvements are incorporated.

Unleash that on the huge consumer appetite for crossover/SUV vehicles and sprinkle it with Tesla lust and you have a big winner on your hands.
EV adoption is in its earliest stages. To say that demand is exhausted ignores the 99% of car buyers who remain to be converted.
No, was referring to pent-up demand. If the Model Y was announced and pre-orders available before the beginning of this year, there could have been significant cannibalization.

Higher level trim versions of the Model 3 will continue to sell with growth in the general EV segment, but at significantly lower rates than in 2018 for some time.
It's clear what you were referring to as you said it specifically in that sentence.

And you're right, as I have suspected for months and Tesla has now confirmed. Lead times on all their vehicles are suddenly measured in single digit weeks. They have met the demand for $65k model 3s with current supply, hence across the board price reductions, including even on their software. The story about massive demand is over. Some sales estimates for January and February have been very low as well and they are building up lots of inventory they need to offload to pull in cash.

Tesla no longer shares reservation numbers. I had long believed that they were facing massive reservation cancellations and this has now been confirmed with 2-4 week estimates on the car all these people were supposedly waiting for.

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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:14 am

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
evnow wrote: There is a reason dealers are fighting Tesla tooth & nail. They are afraid and with good reason. Funny enough, Tesla now says - only online ordering. So, what are the dealers going to do now ?
Nobody believes this online-only is from a position of strength; it is from a position of weakness.

Even in January Tesla was talking about its expansion plans for retail. Now suddenly it can't cover them, it has also stopped paying commissions on all sales positions (these made up more than half of the income for sales associates) and is shuttering stores already.

It's doing this because it is hemorrhaging money and desperately needs to keep blood pressure up before it passes out.

I disagree. Tesla has had very poor management on retail sales at every level, I don't think they should have stores and they only needed them before for the initial growth but I think the inexperienced people and the lack of attention to profit is the reason this is happening. They still are learning to pay attention to costs and I really think things were managed poorly just as they still are in the online space with no thought to long term strategy. Cost management was never a priority and now they need to run like a normal company not a valley start up. More adults are needed and with new additions to the board this change was expected.

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Nubo
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 04, 2019 12:28 pm

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
evnow wrote: There is a reason dealers are fighting Tesla tooth & nail. They are afraid and with good reason. Funny enough, Tesla now says - only online ordering. So, what are the dealers going to do now ?
Nobody believes this online-only is from a position of strength; it is from a position of weakness.

Even in January Tesla was talking about its expansion plans for retail. Now suddenly it can't cover them, it has also stopped paying commissions on all sales positions (these made up more than half of the income for sales associates) and is shuttering stores already.

It's doing this because it is hemorrhaging money and desperately needs to keep blood pressure up before it passes out.
Physical stores have been an exercise in battling entrenched crony capitalism laws. Doing an end-run around them alleviates that slog and saves money. I’m all for it. Traditional dealerships are parasitic organisms. This seems like good medicine. I’m not qualified to judge their financial position but reports of their demise over the last decade have tended to be off.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

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Nubo
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 04, 2019 12:34 pm

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
iPlug wrote:
Nubo wrote: EV adoption is in its earliest stages. To say that demand is exhausted ignores the 99% of car buyers who remain to be converted.
No, was referring to pent-up demand. If the Model Y was announced and pre-orders available before the beginning of this year, there could have been significant cannibalization.

Higher level trim versions of the Model 3 will continue to sell with growth in the general EV segment, but at significantly lower rates than in 2018 for some time.
It's clear what you were referring to as you said it specifically in that sentence.

And you're right, as I have suspected for months and Tesla has now confirmed. Lead times on all their vehicles are suddenly measured in single digit weeks. They have met the demand for $65k model 3s with current supply, hence across the board price reductions, including even on their software. The story about massive demand is over. Some sales estimates for January and February have been very low as well and they are building up lots of inventory they need to offload to pull in cash.

Tesla no longer shares reservation numbers. I had long believed that they were facing massive reservation cancellations and this has now been confirmed with 2-4 week estimates on the car all these people were supposedly waiting for.
Depends on your time horizon i guess. Adoption at some point will become exponential and will swamp any current concerns that only look weeks forward.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:06 pm

If Tesla stores are bad why are there Apple stores?
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EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:53 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
evnow wrote: There is a reason dealers are fighting Tesla tooth & nail. They are afraid and with good reason. Funny enough, Tesla now says - only online ordering. So, what are the dealers going to do now ?
Nobody believes this online-only is from a position of strength; it is from a position of weakness.

Even in January Tesla was talking about its expansion plans for retail. Now suddenly it can't cover them, it has also stopped paying commissions on all sales positions (these made up more than half of the income for sales associates) and is shuttering stores already.

It's doing this because it is hemorrhaging money and desperately needs to keep blood pressure up before it passes out.

I disagree. Tesla has had very poor management on retail sales at every level, I don't think they should have stores and they only needed them before for the initial growth but I think the inexperienced people and the lack of attention to profit is the reason this is happening. They still are learning to pay attention to costs and I really think things were managed poorly just as they still are in the online space with no thought to long term strategy. Cost management was never a priority and now they need to run like a normal company not a valley start up. More adults are needed and with new additions to the board this change was expected.
This change was never expected. In January they said they were expanding these locations. Now a month later they are going to have to break all these leases at massive cost, and their third big round of layoffs in a year.

Additionally, even using their best numbers something like 18% of people did order through a store (for model 3--which isn't surprising as it was very difficult to find a store with them for a while). There's no way that getting rid of retail will not hurt its sales, period.

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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 04, 2019 3:30 pm

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:Nobody believes this online-only is from a position of strength; it is from a position of weakness.

Even in January Tesla was talking about its expansion plans for retail. Now suddenly it can't cover them, it has also stopped paying commissions on all sales positions (these made up more than half of the income for sales associates) and is shuttering stores already.

It's doing this because it is hemorrhaging money and desperately needs to keep blood pressure up before it passes out.

I disagree. Tesla has had very poor management on retail sales at every level, I don't think they should have stores and they only needed them before for the initial growth but I think the inexperienced people and the lack of attention to profit is the reason this is happening. They still are learning to pay attention to costs and I really think things were managed poorly just as they still are in the online space with no thought to long term strategy. Cost management was never a priority and now they need to run like a normal company not a valley start up. More adults are needed and with new additions to the board this change was expected.
This change was never expected. In January they said they were expanding these locations. Now a month later they are going to have to break all these leases at massive cost, and their third big round of layoffs in a year.

Additionally, even using their best numbers something like 18% of people did order through a store (for model 3--which isn't surprising as it was very difficult to find a store with them for a while). There's no way that getting rid of retail will not hurt its sales, period.
I spoke to the manager of the highest volume store in the US, I think most volume comes from a few stores so closing stores is not going to be as big as impact as it may appear.

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