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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:55 pm
by evnow
Its not.

The important thing to understand is that there are BILLIONs bet on the TSLA stock. It is the most shorted large cap stock. There is immense financial incentive to spread FUD all the time - not just in SA but also in mainstream media outlets.

The investment thesis is actually very simple
- EVs are the future of personal transportation
- Tesla is the undisputed leader in EVs

What more do you need ?

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:00 pm
by evnow
DaveinOlyWA wrote:Long contended that Tesla should have stayed in the luxury car arena and concentrated more on the electrified trucking. That arena is unlimited. Don't be surprised if cities start banning smoking diesels if Tesla pulls off the last mile. They will be able to afford to do anything then.

But Musk's desire to "do all, be all" has put Tesla in a bad position stretched too far in too many directions. Hate to say it, but the T3 will be the ruin of them... (still an awesome car though)
Doesn't make too much sense. Tesla's most difficult days are behind them - not in front.

BTW, the current short "thesis" is that there is no demand for Model 3. Do you buy that ?

Not withstanding the fact that 400k people reserved to get the $35k base Model 3 three years back, somehow shorts have convinced themselves that finally releasing the promised $35k base car after 3 years somehow shows there is no demand for Model 3 ! The short interest spiked after the SR release and of course the stock price went down. When there are people willing to sell the stock for below market price, why wouldn't it ?

Model 3 is already ruining luxury ICE market in US. Luxury brand dealers of BMW & Mercedes are showing huge cut in profits. Autonation replaced their CEO (who blamed Tesla). Model Y will completely destroy their US market - and will start attacking Detroit auto makers cash cows. 2021 will be a fun year.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:06 pm
by evnow
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/07/tesla-l ... eveal.html

Tesla doesn't know where it will build the Model Y as it rolls out more layoffs and cost cuts

How does the market react? TSLA up today of course!

This Model Y reveal is a pure money grab and desperate effort to renew hype as the company faces a huge operating squeeze. If they take reservations I want to look closely at Musk's face to see if he blushes while he announces that.
LOL - stock price goes up because shorts start covering when the SP is down.

BTW, from Q4 ER Musk said Y will be built in GF1. Its possible they have already started building an assembly line for it.

Full disclosure : I've long on TSLA from 2011. How about you ?

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:45 pm
by GRA
Bloomberg:
Look, Just Quit Tweeting, OK? Investors Sue Tesla and Musk Again
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ow-organic
Enough with the tweets already.

That’s the message a group of institutional investors in Tesla Inc. is sending the electric-car maker and Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk in broadening its claim against him Thursday, saying his “repeated misstatements” continue to harm the company and its shareholders.

Their new lawsuit, filed in Delaware Chancery Court, seeks to permanently block Musk’s “unchecked use of Twitter to make inaccurate statements about the company,” lawyers for one of the investors, the Laborers’ District Council and Contractors’ Pension Fund of Ohio, said in a statement.

After tweeting last year that he had secured funding for a plan to take the company private, Musk allegedly stepped over the line again in February by estimating on Twitter that Tesla would produce about half a million vehicles this year. The suit complains that Musk and Tesla directors have breached their duties to investors.

Tesla didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment on the suit. . . .

“Mr. Musk has continually disregarded all efforts to rein in his material misstatements on social media,” Michael Barry, an attorney for the Laborers’ District Council, said in the statement. . . .
ABG:
Tesla agrees to drop fuel savings ad claim for Model 3 in Germany
Building in amount saved by not buying gas is no longer allowed
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ow-organic
. . . Electric carmaker Tesla has committed to stop using fuel savings estimates to advertise its Model 3 online, a German industry association set up to prevent unfair competition practices said on Wednesday.

The Wettbewerbszentrale independent body, formed by German industry to ensure companies compete fairly, said the U.S. carmaker had been using random and non-transparent fuel savings estimates and that it must drop the practice by March 20.

Tesla had displayed the 56,380 euro ($63,811) original price for the Model 3 online as well as a price of 51,380 euros when taking account of estimated fuel savings of 5,000 euros over five years, Wettbewerbszentrale said.

This is consistent with what Tesla does in the United States. On the opening page of its Model 3 configurator, for example, it claims a price of $26,950 for its newly announced Standard Range, Standard Interior trim level, but that price is asterisked. Follow the asterisk and you learn Tesla has arrived at that "price" by building in $3,750 in federal tax incentives and subtracting $4,300 in projected savings from not burning gas. The actual price of the car is $35,000.

"Even if 'savings' could be realized, such an amount cannot be deducted from the purchase price or the monthly rate ... because customers must pay the full price at the time of purchase or financing," the association said.

The company has guaranteed that it would not repeat such advertising, Wettbewerbszentrale said. . . .
Now if we could get some court or regulator to prohibit Tesla and others from this practice here. It's deceptive and sleazy.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:18 am
by cwerdna
To steal the title from someone's TMC post:
"Tesla walks back on store closing, increases prices again"
https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-tesla ... nd-pricing

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:22 am
by LeftieBiker
M: Yes, but I came here for a reasonably priced Model 3!!

A: OH! Oh! I'm sorry! This is employee psychological abuse!

M: Oh! Oh I see!

A: Aha! No, you want room 12A, next door - price increases.

M: Oh...Sorry...

A: Not at all!

A: (under his breath) stupid git.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:03 am
by cwerdna

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:41 am
by EatsShootsandLeafs
evnow wrote: The investment thesis is actually very simple
- EVs are the future of personal transportation
- Tesla is the undisputed leader in EVs

What more do you need ?
I'm actually taken aback that this is all one needs to invest in a company. I honestly don't even know how to respond to it.
evnow wrote:Not withstanding the fact that 400k people reserved to get the $35k base Model 3 three years back, somehow shorts have convinced themselves that finally releasing the promised $35k base car after 3 years somehow shows there is no demand for Model 3 ! The short interest spiked after the SR release and of course the stock price went down. When there are people willing to sell the stock for below market price, why wouldn't it ?
I'll pick on this cause it's the easiest.

Tesla said 400k people reserved (at least). This was initially. Many of their sales since were not by reservation holders. They've sold around 220k 3s now and yet are now able to create cars as quickly as people want them, as evidenced by very short lead times across all models at this point. How many of those 400k cancelled their reservations? I'm guessing in the vicinity of 3/4.

The demand question, btw, is not really a debate. Everybody knows Tesla is having demand problems. You don't lower the cost of all your products by 15% if demand outstrips supply.

As for Tesla's most difficult days are behind them I beg to differ. Q1 report is going to be very ugly.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:31 am
by DaveinOlyWA
A good portion of early T3 LR buyers were current Tesla owners replacing their Model S. This is not a good sign.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:49 am
by LTLFTcomposite
The M3 demand thing really doesn't surprise me. In case you haven't noticed crossovers are where the action is. Once the pool of enthusiasts is depleted you need to have cars people in general want, and that is decidedly not sedans.

This business with flip flopping on stores and pricing is annoying though. This company still has a lot of growing up to do.