User avatar
jlv
Moderator
Posts: 1159
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2014 6:08 pm
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2014
Leaf Number: 424487
Location: Massachusetts

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:11 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:What's wrong with that?
Some consider it bad grammar. E.g., https://grammarist.com/usage/learnings/
LEAF '13 SL+Prem (mfg 12/13, leased 4/14, bought 5/17, sold 11/18) 34K mi, AHr 58, SOH 87%
Tesla S 75D (3/17)
Tesla X 100D (12/18)
85K 100% BEV miles since '14
ICE free since '18

EatsShootsandLeafs
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:59 am
Delivery Date: 24 Aug 2012

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Apr 03, 2019 4:13 pm

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:$35K Tesla now available. Guess that hoax is over.
Possibly.

Let's see how this pans out in coming weeks/months.

If this is as they are claiming, it's about time, and I can admit I was wrong about the car. Will be interesting to see how this impacts the stock when it's reopened for trading. Anybody who takes delivery before Q2, in certain states (like mine) will get it for sub $30k all-in.
Clearly I need not admit anything of the sort so far.

Yet again Tesla lied. They said 2-4 weeks out for SR cars and not a single one has yet been delivered 5-6 weeks later. More BS, more excuses.

Q1 sales in NA are going to be very interesting. I think demand has detonated for Tesla's products in north america. They'll play off things well in Europe based on a backlog as if it's any guidance to ongoing demand.

sparky
Posts: 723
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 10:55 am
Delivery Date: 08 Jan 2011
Location: SoCal

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Apr 03, 2019 5:56 pm

Not great numbers for Q1 production and deliveries and probably over $1.5B hit to their revenue vs Q4.
http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news- ... deliveries

Yes, it's 110% growth over Q1-2018 but this is going to hurt the stock for several weeks IMO. S&X are especially impacted by about 10k fewer cars produced this quarter than last year at this time. I was expecting about 70k deliveries.

WetEV
Posts: 3206
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Apr 03, 2019 7:17 pm

sparky wrote:Not great numbers for Q1 production and deliveries and probably over $1.5B hit to their revenue vs Q4.
http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news- ... deliveries

Yes, it's 110% growth over Q1-2018 but this is going to hurt the stock for several weeks IMO. S&X are especially impacted by about 10k fewer cars produced this quarter than last year at this time. I was expecting about 70k deliveries.
Production exceeded deliveries by 22%. Almost equal to cars in transit to remote markets.

Deliveries were 31% below last quarter.

So looks not so horrid, production only down 9%.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

lorenfb
Posts: 2278
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Apr 03, 2019 8:29 pm

Tesla report 4/3/19:
In the first quarter, we produced approximately 77,100 total vehicles, consisting of 62,950 Model 3 and 14,150 Model S and X.

Deliveries were approximately 63,000 vehicles, which was 110% more than the same quarter last year, but 31% less than last quarter.
This included approximately 50,900 Model 3 and 12,100 Model S and X.
So based on new & previous available data:

1. Approximately 25K M3s went to China/Europe in Q1, most likely half from 2018 production.
2. That leaves about 26K (51K-25K) M3 deliveries for the U.S. in Q1.
3. From InsideEvs, about 12K M3 for Jan/Feb.
4. Given the March “push”, only 14K deliveries in U.S. for March.
5. Q1 M3 production was 63K, which results in an excess M3 inventory ~ 12K (63K-51K).

Conclusions:

1. The M3 demand has significantly weakened, i.e. #5 above (production > demand).
2. Based on U.S. Q1 results, the M3 annualized U.S. volume is only about 100K.
3. The MS/MX 2019 run-rate is about half 2018 (~ 50K).
4. Total projected 2019 sales volume ~ 250K, i.e. less than the 300K from Elon's latest guidance,
without very significant China/European demand increase.

Bottom Line: M3 demand has reached a plateau per expectations.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 4.5K miles, 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

EatsShootsandLeafs
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:59 am
Delivery Date: 24 Aug 2012

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:20 am

Seems I was right per my post yesterday.

Demand story is over, stock is tanking in pre-market.

When are Tesla fans going to figure out the stock's price is absolute garbage? TSLA is not the new AMZN. This company has some major headwinds.

cwerdna
Posts: 9811
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:38 am

cwerdna wrote:Well, you wrote this on Jan 26, 2018...
webb14leafs wrote: If you doubt that Tesla will build 500,000 cars per year within 6-12 months, you are ignoring reality.
They reported earnings around Jan 30, 2019. See https://insideevs.com/tesla-releases-q4-results-profit/.

They claimed:
Every part of the Model 3 production process has demonstrated over a 24-hour period the ability to produce at an extrapolated rate of 7,000 vehicles per week. By the end of this year, we expect to be able to produce Model 3 at this rate on a sustained basis.
So, if they are able to sustain 7K/week, that's 364K vehicles/year.
From http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news- ... deliveries
PALO ALTO, Calif., April 03, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In the first quarter, we produced approximately 77,100 total vehicles, consisting of 62,950 Model 3 and 14,150 Model S and X.
So, that's about 5930/week. This is well short of the rate required to build 500,000 vehicles/year of ~9615/week.

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

Leaf15
Posts: 169
Joined: Sat Jun 09, 2018 6:51 am
Delivery Date: 09 Jun 2018
Location: Pennsylvania, USA

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:06 am

Model 3 is just another niche EV car. This is what Tesla is good for since they started making EV cars just for a few folks.
Leaf 2015 SV CPO traded for 2019 Hyundai Ioniq EV Limited

User avatar
LTLFTcomposite
Posts: 4720
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 6:06 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Dec 2011
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Central FL

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Apr 04, 2019 9:03 am

If it's a demand problem they could try lifting a finger there. Stop thinking you're smarter than everyone else and run some ads, open more stores instead of closing them and incentivize the sales force.

Of course demand generation doesn't help without the corresponding supply generation. Keep fixing the production and delivery issues.

Oh and change the password on the EM twitter account and have those all come through corporate communications. There's a reason big companies review stuff and think things through before opening their yaps.
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue
2016 SV-adjacent May 2016 lost 4th bar March 2018

EatsShootsandLeafs
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:59 am
Delivery Date: 24 Aug 2012

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:26 am

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/03/cars ... index.html
It was the first quarter-to-quarter drop in sales at Tesla (TSLA) in nearly two years and the single largest drop ever.
Stock got smashed, but it's recovered up another $9 or so since, including after market. Not surprised. It will keep going up because its supporters don't care about fundamentals. People who are long tsla at this valuation are part of a mass delusion. Musk is a compulsive liar. A lot of people realize this, but it's surprising how many don't despite voluminous evidence in support of it.

Return to “Other Electric Cars & Plug-In Hybrids”