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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 1:54 am
by Evoforce
Valdemar wrote:
GRA wrote:
Valdemar wrote:I will never trust a car auto-pilot. Now, how do I protect myself and my family from those who will?
Getting the government to regulate them, much as they do with aircraft systems (with some notable failures to be sure, including the recent one with the 737 Max).
And a plane auto-pilot is in a sense an easier problem to solve. If Musk succeeds the future scares me.
I am reminded that change scares some people!

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 1:57 am
by Evoforce
palmermd wrote:I bought my Tesla because of the Tesla Supercharger network. It is the only EV you can buy that has the ability to be your only vehicle, and it is because of this network. So you are not correct that this network does not influence buying decisions. It is a huge influence. And as other manufacturers build long distance cars and those owners struggle to find working charge stations, it will drive more decisions to switch to Tesla.
+1

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 6:45 am
by lorenfb
palmermd wrote: So you are not correct that this network does not influence buying decisions. It is a huge influence.
As I said, for some it's a factor. Last month my decision was to lease a 2019 Leaf versus buying a M3. The SC network had no
influence, but the negative factors of the M3 did.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 4:47 pm
by GRA
palmermd wrote:I bought my Tesla because of the Tesla Supercharger network. It is the only EV you can buy that has the ability to be your only vehicle, and it is because of this network. So you are not correct that this network does not influence buying decisions. It is a huge influence. And as other manufacturers build long distance cars and those owners struggle to find working charge stations, it will drive more decisions to switch to Tesla.
The SC network undoubtedly has influenced many people to buy Teslas, but with EA having as of today opened 164 150/350kW QC stations in just over a year (first one opened May 2nd of last year), with it now being possible to drive from Florida or New York to Denver with only a couple of sites still needed to cross the Rockies and join the coasts, and Ionity building their network in Europe, the SC advantage is rapidly dwindling. Teslas still charge faster than most of their competitors, but that will also change in the near future.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 5:19 pm
by OrientExpress
palmermd wrote:I bought my Tesla because of the Tesla Supercharger network. It is the only EV you can buy that has the ability to be your only vehicle, and it is because of this network. So you are not correct that this network does not influence buying decisions. It is a huge influence. And as other manufacturers build long distance cars and those owners struggle to find working charge stations, it will drive more decisions to switch to Tesla.
Enjoy the numerical advantage while it lasts. Same goes with the speed and walled-garden tech of the supercharger network.

The first to market also usually become the first to be obsolete or uncompetitive as new players and technologies enter the market. The CAPEX of updating a legacy system to stay competitive or compatible with the current tech can be daunting. That is what is happening right now. It might not be evident to the lay Tesla owner, but those responsible for the Tesla network know it all too well, and just as soon not bring it up.

So I say to Tesla, congratulations to them for being first to market and having that advantage of a large network. I also pray for Tesla as they struggle to keep their network competitive and up to date with the new players and tech that is now entering the market.

The good thing for current Tesla owners is that their cars will still charge at the network for the foreseeable future even as both the cars and the network become obsolete. An analogy of technology obsolesce is a Token Ring network compared to 1000baseT networks.

To Tesla's advantage is that they have the leases on the ground that the Superchargers sit, so if they have the ability, they can transition to industry standard charging infrastructure like they are finding themselves doing in Europe and China. But that transition isn't going to be cheap or easy.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 10:32 pm
by Evoforce
OrientExpress wrote:
palmermd wrote:I bought my Tesla because of the Tesla Supercharger network. It is the only EV you can buy that has the ability to be your only vehicle, and it is because of this network. So you are not correct that this network does not influence buying decisions. It is a huge influence. And as other manufacturers build long distance cars and those owners struggle to find working charge stations, it will drive more decisions to switch to Tesla.
Enjoy the numerical advantage while it lasts. Same goes with the speed and walled-garden tech of the supercharger network.

The first to market also usually become the first to be obsolete or uncompetitive as new players and technologies enter the market. The CAPEX of updating a legacy system to stay competitive or compatible with the current tech can be daunting. That is what is happening right now. It might not be evident to the lay Tesla owner, but those responsible for the Tesla network know it all too well, and just as soon not bring it up.

So I say to Tesla, congratulations to them for being first to market and having that advantage of a large network. I also pray for Tesla as they struggle to keep their network competitive and up to date with the new players and tech that is now entering the market.

The good thing for current Tesla owners is that their cars will still charge at the network for the foreseeable future even as both the cars and the network become obsolete. An analogy of technology obsolesce is a Token Ring network compared to 1000baseT networks.

To Tesla's advantage is that they have the leases on the ground that the Superchargers sit, so if they have the ability, they can transition to industry standard charging infrastructure like they are finding themselves doing in Europe and China. But that transition isn't going to be cheap or easy.
Hopefully Tesla's massive lead with EV's and charging won't be squandered like Nissan did!

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 11:54 pm
by cwerdna
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
lorenfb wrote:, it's wishful
thinking from Elon that 300K is achievable for 2019, given weak M3 demand.
Part and parcel.

Who has a 300k tow capacity (not a typo--yes 300,000 lbs) pickup truck coming out?
Who has a 1M FSD robo fleet coming next year?
Who makes better chips their first time around than nVidia?
Who makes vehicles that appreciate in value?
Who lets you buy their car and generate $30k/year from it as it drives itself?

The answer to all these questions is:

Tesla.

Source:

Statements from Elon Musk

Anybody who can read my post and still is long Tsla has a screw or ten loose. Because as @*#&ing insane it is to write it, literally everything I just said has been claimed by their CEO. I can't even pick a favorite. They are all so absolutely absurd.
To add to the above craziness from Musk, I read https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/02/elon-mu ... mpany.html this morning.
Musk confidently told investors on the call that autonomous driving will transform Tesla into a company with a $500 billion market cap, these people said. Its current market cap stands around $42 billion. He also said that existing Teslas will increase in value as self-driving capabilities are added via software, and will be worth up to $250,000 within three years.
:lol:

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 11:41 am
by dgpcolorado
GRA wrote:
palmermd wrote:I bought my Tesla because of the Tesla Supercharger network. It is the only EV you can buy that has the ability to be your only vehicle, and it is because of this network. So you are not correct that this network does not influence buying decisions. It is a huge influence. And as other manufacturers build long distance cars and those owners struggle to find working charge stations, it will drive more decisions to switch to Tesla.
The SC network undoubtedly has influenced many people to buy Teslas, but with EA having as of today opened 164 150/350kW QC stations in just over a year (first one opened May 2nd of last year), with it now being possible to drive from Florida or New York to Denver with only a couple of sites still needed to cross the Rockies and join the coasts, and Ionity building their network in Europe, the SC advantage is rapidly dwindling. Teslas still charge faster than most of their competitors, but that will also change in the near future.
Like palmermd, my reason for going to a Tesla was the Supercharger network — it allowed me to use an EV as my only car; I waited until my most-traveled long distance route was covered before (used) Tesla shopping.

It remains to be seen whether or not the EA network in North America will prove easy-to-use and reliable. (It appears that the DCFC alternatives to the Supercharger network in Europe will suffice to allow road trips, although the population density is much higher, distances much shorter and alternatives — such as rail — much better than in NA.)

With regard to the EA network: Is the payment system seamless and simple — just pull up and plug-in? Will the chargers be well-maintained and fixed quickly if they break? Will the car's navigation system know where all the chargers are and automatically plan routes to them? Will the car's navigation be able to tell the driver if the charge station is open and how many stalls are available? Will the charge stations in populous regions have dozens of stalls, rather than just a few? Are all the charge stations open 24/7?

Dots on a map are one thing, it takes more than that to make a practical, useful DCFC network. I am hopeful that the answers to my questions will soon be "yes" for the EA network, and any other networks developed, since I would like to see more EVs on the road. It would be nice for a Bolt driver in Denver to be able to just get in the car and drive to Los Angeles or Seattle or Boston, without a concern, as is the case for Tesla drivers now.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 1:18 pm
by cwerdna
Valdemar wrote:Elon wants to bring in more debt and the stock price goes up. Fascinating.
Yep. Bizarre. Will it happen again given I just saw this?

Tesla To Raise Not $2.3 Billion But Up To $2.7 Billion
https://insideevs.com/news/347881/tesla ... 7-billion/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKCN1S90YT

Will it go up again even though they're going to issue $860 million in new shares?

What's comical is that one guy in a Bolt group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/1521572 ... 0905950523 (unfortunately, a closed one) who clearly is misinformed about the auto industry as whole and I guess part of the Tesla delusion views raising 2.7 billion as "good news". :roll: :lol:

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Tue May 07, 2019 7:51 pm
by GRA
dgpcolorado wrote:
GRA wrote:
palmermd wrote:I bought my Tesla because of the Tesla Supercharger network. It is the only EV you can buy that has the ability to be your only vehicle, and it is because of this network. So you are not correct that this network does not influence buying decisions. It is a huge influence. And as other manufacturers build long distance cars and those owners struggle to find working charge stations, it will drive more decisions to switch to Tesla.
The SC network undoubtedly has influenced many people to buy Teslas, but with EA having as of today opened 164 150/350kW QC stations in just over a year (first one opened May 2nd of last year), with it now being possible to drive from Florida or New York to Denver with only a couple of sites still needed to cross the Rockies and join the coasts, and Ionity building their network in Europe, the SC advantage is rapidly dwindling. Teslas still charge faster than most of their competitors, but that will also change in the near future.
Like palmermd, my reason for going to a Tesla was the Supercharger network — it allowed me to use an EV as my only car; I waited until my most-traveled long distance route was covered before (used) Tesla shopping.

It remains to be seen whether or not the EA network in North America will prove easy-to-use and reliable. (It appears that the DCFC alternatives to the Supercharger network in Europe will suffice to allow road trips, although the population density is much higher, distances much shorter and alternatives — such as rail — much better than in NA.)

With regard to the EA network: Is the payment system seamless and simple — just pull up and plug-in? Will the chargers be well-maintained and fixed quickly if they break? Will the car's navigation system know where all the chargers are and automatically plan routes to them? Will the car's navigation be able to tell the driver if the charge station is open and how many stalls are available? Will the charge stations in populous regions have dozens of stalls, rather than just a few? Are all the charge stations open 24/7?

Dots on a map are one thing, it takes more than that to make a practical, useful DCFC network. I am hopeful that the answers to my questions will soon be "yes" for the EA network, and any other networks developed, since I would like to see more EVs on the road. It would be nice for a Bolt driver in Denver to be able to just get in the car and drive to Los Angeles or Seattle or Boston, without a concern, as is the case for Tesla drivers now.
EA's typical between cities sites have 4 CCS/1 CHAdeMO (they say 3/1, but apparently don't count the CCS on the shared pedestal); the largest sites I've found have 9/1 per EA (presumably 10/1 actual). Some of the urban cites have 2 CCS / 1 CHAdeMO/1 L2. )They're going to a 'pull-in and be billed wirelessly for the juice' model, but haven't introduced it yet. Reliability remains to be seen, but they've had some initial problems at some sites, as did Tesla. EA has little choice but to maintain the sites, as they're required to do so for I think it's 10 years. Unlike Tesla, if they fall short it means they'll be penalized even more. Nav. etc. info will undoubtedly follow, but as long as you've got a cell phone, you can find them. AFAIA all the stations are 24/7, although the surrounding businesses aren't.