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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Mon May 20, 2019 5:36 am
by WetEV
webb14leafs wrote:Is this thread about tesla's corporate outlook, or their stock price?
Long term, the two are nearly identical.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Mon May 20, 2019 7:25 am
by EatsShootsandLeafs
webb14leafs wrote:Is this thread about tesla's corporate outlook, or their stock price?
These two are highly related to one another. They are also more closely related than they used to be.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Mon May 20, 2019 8:10 am
by smkettner
I will hold my breath until the 2nd quarter sales and financials are released.
Tesla has been in constant transition making it difficult to determine a trend.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Mon May 20, 2019 8:35 am
by palmermd
webb14leafs wrote:Is this thread about tesla's corporate outlook, or their stock price?
Even based on the title of this thread, it is a blending of the two. That is how I've viewed it anyway.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Mon May 20, 2019 11:06 am
by WetEV
smkettner wrote:I will hold my breath until the 2nd quarter sales and financials are released.
Tesla has been in constant transition making it difficult to determine a trend.
Low for today so far was $195.25

Don't follow trends out windows. Tesla is overvalued, a lot. While it isn't a good candidate for shorting in my opinion, I wouldn't suggest owning any excluding only through index funds.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Tue May 21, 2019 4:17 am
by EatsShootsandLeafs
smkettner wrote:I will hold my breath until the 2nd quarter sales and financials are released.
Tesla has been in constant transition making it difficult to determine a trend.
I disagree. There is a strong trend. Here is what it looks like:

- semi-constant losses followed by
- occasional profitable quarter and promises of more of the same followed by
- more losses followed by
- promises of "next quarter it will be different"

This company has been promising pending, sustainable profits for many years. They have been unable to deliver. Here we are almost two years out from production start of the model 3 and all they can do is burn cash.

This is a very difficult business to break into as the numerous failed car companies attest to.

It's taking a lot of my willpower not to short this stock. I am not doing it only because last time I tried I got burned on put options, even though I was correct in the direction, and they bailed in value shortly thereafter--but with TSLA the timing is also critical due to the massive cost of options and decay. This stock is extremely dangerous to trade. Both longs and shorts have held that view for a long time.

There is no reason this company cannot do what many others before it have done, which is file for bankruptcy. It absolutely can happen. They need to right this ship very quickly and have been unable to do so. I can easily envision (not saying this will happen) a liquidation scenario, selling the brand and assets off to a Chinese company or similar. The idea that Musk is going to right it and they'll start cranking out money, robo fleet next year, cars appreciating in value, stock going over $1k, etc. it's nothing but a fantasy.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Tue May 21, 2019 4:49 am
by webb14leafs
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
smkettner wrote:I will hold my breath until the 2nd quarter sales and financials are released.
Tesla has been in constant transition making it difficult to determine a trend.
I disagree. There is a strong trend. Here is what it looks like:

- semi-constant losses followed by
- occasional profitable quarter and promises of more of the same followed by
- more losses followed by
- promises of "next quarter it will be different"

This company has been promising pending, sustainable profits for many years. They have been unable to deliver. Here we are almost two years out from production start of the model 3 and all they can do is burn cash.

This is a very difficult business to break into as the numerous failed car companies attest to.

It's taking a lot of my willpower not to short this stock. I am not doing it only because last time I tried I got burned on put options, even though I was correct in the direction, and they bailed in value shortly thereafter--but with TSLA the timing is also critical due to the massive cost of options and decay. This stock is extremely dangerous to trade. Both longs and shorts have held that view for a long time.

There is no reason this company cannot do what many others before it have done, which is file for bankruptcy. It absolutely can happen. They need to right this ship very quickly and have been unable to do so. I can easily envision (not saying this will happen) a liquidation scenario, selling the brand and assets off to a Chinese company or similar. The idea that Musk is going to right it and they'll start cranking out money, robo fleet next year, cars appreciating in value, stock going over $1k, etc. it's nothing but a fantasy.
I agree with a lot of what you say, especially Musk's 2020 vision being ridiculously impossible. I own the stock, and I think it will likely fall even more in the coming weeks. I do think that this is an important quarter, and the results of the next report will be a breaking point. They need to show solid progress on GIG 3, prep for Model Y production, and sales in line with estimates. Cash burn is due to all of the irons in the fire. 3rd and 4th quarter last year showed how profitable the company "could" be. They need to get to the point where they can fund new models with the revenue from the existing ones. Noone should be surprised that they're not there yet, but they need to show solid progress.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Tue May 21, 2019 6:10 am
by LTLFTcomposite
In some ways the model 3 is merely following in the footsteps of the Volt just on a bigger scale. Unfortunately coolness takes you only so far and having the wrong form factor for today's market where people want crossovers not cars is rate limiting. The amazing part to me is they've sold as many as they have. Chalk that up to a segment of the population that just really wanted to have a Tesla. The model 3 took out a slice of that adoption pyramid, but relying on fanbois is wearing thin and at some point they need to start selling to everybody else. In EM's mind apparently they think they can do so without any advertising or salespeople. Until those problems are fixed the real market opportunity for them will remain unaddressed.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Tue May 21, 2019 7:36 am
by smkettner
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
smkettner wrote:I will hold my breath until the 2nd quarter sales and financials are released.
Tesla has been in constant transition making it difficult to determine a trend.
I disagree. There is a strong trend. Here is what it looks like:

- semi-constant losses followed by
- occasional profitable quarter and promises of more of the same followed by
- more losses followed by
- promises of "next quarter it will be different"

This company has been promising pending, sustainable profits for many years. They have been unable to deliver. Here we are almost two years out from production start of the model 3 and all they can do is burn cash.

This is a very difficult business to break into as the numerous failed car companies attest to.
I agree if Tesla had stopped with the Model S.

I see Tesla as a sequential startup. Need to achieve critical mass before a steady cash flow or profit is seen. Could start to level out after Model Y is in production for 18 months but even then the Semi and pick-up will still be in startup mode. The stock price could fall dramatically before any real value is obtained.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Tue May 21, 2019 8:08 am
by webb14leafs
LTLFTcomposite wrote:In some ways the model 3 is merely following in the footsteps of the Volt just on a bigger scale. Unfortunately coolness takes you only so far and having the wrong form factor for today's market where people want crossovers not cars is rate limiting. The amazing part to me is they've sold as many as they have. Chalk that up to a segment of the population that just really wanted to have a Tesla. The model 3 took out a slice of that adoption pyramid, but relying on fanbois is wearing thin and at some point they need to start selling to everybody else. In EM's mind apparently they think they can do so without any advertising or salespeople. Until those problems are fixed the real market opportunity for them will remain unaddressed.
I don't know anyone who thought the Volt was "cool". Plus, it's still made by GM, which means it's inherently a POS.

I agree that we should be more impressed by the number of cars they have sold thus far. If it wasn't for Musk's slightly insane forecasts we probably would be. The Model Y "should" sell even better by current market standards.

Also, a change in gas prices would help a lot too.