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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:52 am
by lorenfb
webb14leafs wrote:
lorenfb wrote:Another perspective of Tesla's "profitability":

https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/ ... s-solvent/
What's your point? Again, this is all about perspective. You can read this as 1 - "The only reason Tesla has avoided bankruptcy is by selling tax credits," or 2 - "Wow, Tesla makes a lot of money selling tax credits! This should be a significant and growing revenue source for decades."
As some wish, a future Amazon/Apple/Google/Microsoft/Facebook growth company, right? Laughable!

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:00 am
by jlv
webb14leafs wrote:Last I read was that Tesla had 10 months of cash left at their Q1 burn rate.
...
Noone has a crystal ball, and pretending one does just makes one sound like an idiot.
Here's a fun party game.

Google "Tesla run out of cash". On the results page click "Tools" and then select "Any date range". Now plug in any year for the start and the next year for the end (e.g., start 2014 and end 2015). You fine lots of articles written over the last decade that will talk about "Tesla has N months of cash left at their blah burn rate".

Will they go bankrupt? I don't know. As if oft pointed out, automotive manufacturing is a capital intensive business. Will its survive long term? I don't know.

Interesting fact of the day: GM went bankrupt exactly 10 years ago this week.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:59 am
by webb14leafs
lorenfb wrote:
webb14leafs wrote:
lorenfb wrote:Another perspective of Tesla's "profitability":

https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/ ... s-solvent/
What's your point? Again, this is all about perspective. You can read this as 1 - "The only reason Tesla has avoided bankruptcy is by selling tax credits," or 2 - "Wow, Tesla makes a lot of money selling tax credits! This should be a significant and growing revenue source for decades."
As some wish, a future Amazon/Apple/Google/Microsoft/Facebook growth company, right? Laughable!
What are you talking about??????????

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:36 am
by WetEV
Fiat is paying a heavy price for not having any EVs. At some point they may finally figure it out and start to make a desirable EV. That's the whole goal of ZEV credits. The fact that Tesla benefits from Fiat's errors further's Tesla's ability to offer affordable cars. Without ZEV income, they would have to raise the price of the cars, which would reduce the number of owners that can afford it. Seems like a no brainer to me. How someone can twist this into some kind of negative is even stranger.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:09 pm
by lorenfb
webb14leafs wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
webb14leafs wrote:
What's your point? Again, this is all about perspective. You can read this as 1 - "The only reason Tesla has avoided bankruptcy is by selling tax credits," or 2 - "Wow, Tesla makes a lot of money selling tax credits! This should be a significant and growing revenue source for decades."
As some wish, a future Amazon/Apple/Google/Microsoft/Facebook growth company, right? Laughable!
What are you talking about??????????
To help you understand:

Many consider Tesla a growth startup company as were the above five, and can be assumed to have the same significant growth future.
Doesn't appear to be the case as time progresses, does it?

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:23 am
by webb14leafs
lorenfb wrote:
webb14leafs wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
As some wish, a future Amazon/Apple/Google/Microsoft/Facebook growth company, right? Laughable!
What are you talking about??????????
To help you understand:

Many consider Tesla a growth startup company as were the above five, and can be assumed to have the same significant growth future.
Doesn't appear to be the case as time progresses, does it?
I think the question is whether Tesla will be a successful/viable car company, not if they will have a trillion dollar valuation.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:49 pm
by LTLFTcomposite
Looks like the negativity got a little ahead of itself.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/05/tesla-o ... lysts.html
Tesla increased total U.S. sales in the month of May by 73% compared to last year, according to data from Motor Intelligence. Meanwhile, sales climbed 39% for competing electric vehicles from Audi, BMW, Jaguar, Chevrolet and Nissan. Morgan Stanley also noted that Tesla’s estimated total U.S. sales of 11,300 vehicles in May was 2.6 times the combined total of its competitors’ EV offerings -- up from 2.1 times last year.
So much for the competition, they suck, and everyone with any knowledge of EVs knows it. That's why Tesla has 3/4 of the market share and their share is growing not shrinking.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:05 pm
by lorenfb
LTLFTcomposite wrote:Looks like the negativity got a little ahead of itself.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/05/tesla-o ... lysts.html
Tesla increased total U.S. sales in the month of May by 73% compared to last year, according to data from Motor Intelligence. Meanwhile, sales climbed 39% for competing electric vehicles from Audi, BMW, Jaguar, Chevrolet and Nissan. Morgan Stanley also noted that Tesla’s estimated total U.S. sales of 11,300 vehicles in May was 2.6 times the combined total of its competitors’ EV offerings -- up from 2.1 times last year.
So much for the competition, they suck, and everyone with any knowledge of EVs knows it. That's why Tesla has 3/4 of the market share and their share is growing not shrinking.
Consider reading the above topic on the M3 thread, i.e. a more realistic strategic marketing view.
Bottom Line: The M3 demand is down versus 2018 Q4 - the appropriate base measurement point.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:35 am
by webb14leafs
lorenfb wrote:
LTLFTcomposite wrote:Looks like the negativity got a little ahead of itself.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/05/tesla-o ... lysts.html
Tesla increased total U.S. sales in the month of May by 73% compared to last year, according to data from Motor Intelligence. Meanwhile, sales climbed 39% for competing electric vehicles from Audi, BMW, Jaguar, Chevrolet and Nissan. Morgan Stanley also noted that Tesla’s estimated total U.S. sales of 11,300 vehicles in May was 2.6 times the combined total of its competitors’ EV offerings -- up from 2.1 times last year.
So much for the competition, they suck, and everyone with any knowledge of EVs knows it. That's why Tesla has 3/4 of the market share and their share is growing not shrinking.
Consider reading the above topic on the M3 thread, i.e. a more realistic strategic marketing view.
Bottom Line: The M3 demand is down versus 2018 Q4 - the appropriate base measurement point.
Appropriate according to whom??? "Appropriate" is whatever leads to profitability. "Appropriate" is whatever pays the bills long enough for the company to launch new products that will have similar or higher demand than the current products.

Quarter over quarter growth matters, and shows that demand is not in a free fall. Also good to note that Tesla is STILL selling every expensive compact sedan they make - as fast as they can make them.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:07 am
by EatsShootsandLeafs
EVDRIVER wrote:
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote: With their cash burn rate leaving them only several months of expenditures before running out of cash, if they cannot get profitable and maintain (and they can't), they will have to raise again, causing yet more stock dilution.
Please show me where you got that info. Please quote the fact not a misquoted FUD statement. The Tesla regurgitated nonsense is laughable.
Before I answer your post can you please clarify if you're being serious or not. Also what exactly you want me to "show", whether it's their cash burn rate or what stock dilution is.

I will remind the class that back in April or so I said essentially the same thing, one guy in this thread called me a troll, TSLA just a few weeks after that had to raise $2.X B, and their stock has been flushed down the toilet since.

I'll admit I'm also triggered any time somebody in a tesla thread uses the word FUD because I've found it to be strongly correlated with a knee-jerk overly defensive reaction from a person who is probably long in the stock, has no idea why it's going down, and is angry about something they don't understand. And this leads to this kind of a statement:
EVDRIVER wrote:What you read was a quote that was altered by FUD sites that twisted his words. He never said that. Tesla's biggest issue is disinformation and short sellers, the vast majority of what you read is twisted to fit a narrative and not fact. People here still insist on spreading lies about the technical features of the cars and people take it as fact. Reminds me of some "news" organizations.
It's actually sad reading comments like this with TSLA currently almost 50% off its highs. Short sellers and FUDsters are not destroying this company. Market reality and increasingly poor leadership from its CEO is.