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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:33 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:19 pm
Every other auto manufacturer is failing with their EV offerings. People want Teslas, not compliance cars from manufacturers who are dragged into this kicking and screaming with little or no engineering expertise in the technology... particularly when you have the salesman talking you out of it.
Good point. It's certainly easy to overlook the negative sales pressure endemic to legacy makers' business model. Not just the cost of tooling and development, but especially the entrenched dealership interests where the Service Dept is the profit center. They will steer customers away from EVs in ways both subtle and overt. It's embedded and institutionalized in their culture. These guys are dragging an anchor compared to Tesla, who WANT to sell you all the EVs they can make; who are CONVINCED of EV superiority and don't depend on soot as a revenue generator.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:25 am

EVDRIVER wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:36 pm
Tesla is not a car company and the valuation does make sense. Those that did not see this happening lost out on a great opportunity, others are now in good shape.
I've made the point they are "not just a car company" to others, but even in that mindset, they are still primarily a car company that dabbles in other things. Personally, I think the valuation is absurdly high.

But what do I know? A week ago I sold the last of my TSLA shares at a price 12% less than the stock opened today.
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:36 am

jlv wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:25 am
EVDRIVER wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:36 pm
Tesla is not a car company and the valuation does make sense. Those that did not see this happening lost out on a great opportunity, others are now in good shape.
I've made the point they are "not just a car company" to others, but even in that mindset, they are still primarily a car company that dabbles in other things. Personally, I think the valuation is absurdly high.

But what do I know? A week ago I sold the last of my TSLA shares at a price 12% less than the stock opened today.
Wow, you sold.... it was $30 a share higher the other day. Good thing is you can buy back on dips. Well they don't dabble in batteries or tech and I would not be surprised if they also become some form of utility at some point. They also won't be dabbling in insurance soon. Transport, energy, tech, etc.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:56 am

EVDRIVER wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:36 pm
WetEV wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:17 pm
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:51 am
Stock is $586 now.

I am sure glad I don't short this stock but come on, but...uh, that valuation makes no sense at all.
The valuation makes sense. Assuming Tesla gains and holds a monopoly on electric cars as electric cars expand to cover most of the market, that price is still cheap.
Tesla is not a car company
Tesla is mostly a car company. Only the car part of Tesla has the promise for large volume AND large margin.
EVDRIVER wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:36 pm
Tesla does not need a monopoly to hold or increase this valuation as they have much more opportunity outside of cars alone.
Utility scale solar farms are and will continue to be cheaper than home solar. Even if the shingles are almost as cheap as non-solar shingles, there is still all the electronics. Potential here might be to match Owens-Corning Market Cap: $7.3B

Utility scale batteries will be a competitive field. Tesla might sell a lot, but the margins will be just OK, not like on cars. No network effect to enforce a monopoly.

A monopoly on cars, that's where the future profit can come from to make the stock valued correctly today. $100 billion market value today. Grow that for 20 years until Tesla's producing most of the cars sold in the USA. With a monopoly on cars, market value of TSLA might be 20% of the S&P500, give or take a little. Superchargers and "Destination" chargers everywhere, all locked to charge Tesla only. ICE cars produced in small volumes only. Gas stations closing as business dries up. Public charging dead or dying from lack of use and lack of funding.

Suppose Tesla is locked into a well less than half of the market by competition? Then Tesla's margin and market will be more like Daimler or BMW with a current market cap of about $51B or $52B twenty years in the future. Or both plus Audi, giving $150 billion in twenty years. In this case, TSLA is overvalued as there would be little gain over the next twenty years along with lots of risks.
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:10 am

WetEV wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:17 pm
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:51 am
Stock is $586 now.

I am sure glad I don't short this stock but come on, but...uh, that valuation makes no sense at all.
The valuation makes sense. Assuming Tesla gains and holds a monopoly on electric cars as electric cars expand to cover most of the market, that price is still cheap.
Yes, assuming Tesla can monopolize the EV market it's cheap.

There is no reason whatsoever to think it will monopolize the EV market, IMO.
EVDRIVER wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:36 pm
On the EV front they are many years ahead and continue to stay that way.
The Taycan is widely considered to superior to the Model S. Porsche's first attempt. This is not surprising, though, as Porsche has been building cars forever.

People still don't get it. They still, still, still don't understand why other manufacturers haven't come out with a decent EV. It's pretty obvious: they haven't bothered. Why would Ford come up with a money-losing EV when they can crap out F150's at thousands in profit/per? Other manufacturers are slowly coming online with EVs. Very slowly, because they actually need to make money, and they know EVs are still an almost irrelevant part of the market.

Porsche has surely muted naysayers who insist dinosaurs cannot make EVs. And when Toyota tries, and Ford tries, and VW tries, then what?

Tesla bulls keep pumping the stock up to absurd levels, insisting other manufacturers cannot make an EV, and pointing to goofy compliance cars as proof. They've never bothered to look one move further and ask why the other manufacturers are only making goofy compliance cars.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:48 am

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:10 am
WetEV wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:17 pm
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:51 am
Stock is $586 now.

I am sure glad I don't short this stock but come on, but...uh, that valuation makes no sense at all.
The valuation makes sense. Assuming Tesla gains and holds a monopoly on electric cars as electric cars expand to cover most of the market, that price is still cheap.
Yes, assuming Tesla can monopolize the EV market it's cheap.

There is no reason whatsoever to think it will monopolize the EV market, IMO.
EVDRIVER wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:36 pm
On the EV front they are many years ahead and continue to stay that way.
The Taycan is widely considered to superior to the Model S. Porsche's first attempt. This is not surprising, though, as Porsche has been building cars forever.

People still don't get it. They still, still, still don't understand why other manufacturers haven't come out with a decent EV. It's pretty obvious: they haven't bothered. Why would Ford come up with a money-losing EV when they can crap out F150's at thousands in profit/per? Other manufacturers are slowly coming online with EVs. Very slowly, because they actually need to make money, and they know EVs are still an almost irrelevant part of the market.

Porsche has surely muted naysayers who insist dinosaurs cannot make EVs. And when Toyota tries, and Ford tries, and VW tries, then what?

Tesla bulls keep pumping the stock up to absurd levels, insisting other manufacturers cannot make an EV, and pointing to goofy compliance cars as proof. They've never bothered to look one move further and ask why the other manufacturers are only making goofy compliance cars.
Tesla does not need to dominate the EV market and let me know when other auto makers can make a proper EV, supply batteries for them and have a solid charging network. Tesla is not just a car company and like many people can't see that. The Taycan better be better for that price but is it? Poor range no charging network, performance close to e Model 3P. Let's see how much better it is based on comparative demand in few years, I would say it has better build quality, but lacks in so many other areas and comparing to an S is a bit silly based on cargo capacity and intent of the cars.

Seems Nissan can't get an EV going either, it's more about the correct mix of tech, batteries and charging network. They tried but it was too little too late. Tesla battery day should further widen the gap in Tesla lead since legacy auto makers are not just crippled by selling high margin cars they are crippled bu lack of talent, vision and resources.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:36 am

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:10 am
There is no reason whatsoever to think it will monopolize the EV market, IMO.
Charging networks take time and money to build. Tesla's charging network is by far the best. Assuming Tesla maintains the current 80% market share, Tesla can maintain a far better private charging network, allowing them to sell cars for a premium, which they can use to subsidize increasing market share and subsidize the charging network. It is not just the car.
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:13 pm

WetEV wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:36 am
Charging networks take time and money to build.
No doubt. But if Tesla is going to monopolize the auto industry and the auto industry is going to be dominated by EV's, who is going to build the grid and generation facilities to support that kind of charging network?

Here in CO, the grid is already limiting the number of indoor marijuana grow facilities that can be built due to limits to the amount of electrical power that can be supplied to the desired areas. Imagine what would happen if every gas guzzling car today needed a super-duper charger. The current electrical grid could not handle it.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:52 pm

goldbrick wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:13 pm
WetEV wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:36 am
Charging networks take time and money to build.
No doubt. But if Tesla is going to monopolize the auto industry and the auto industry is going to be dominated by EV's, who is going to build the grid and generation facilities to support that kind of charging network?

Here in CO, the grid is already limiting the number of indoor marijuana grow facilities that can be built due to limits to the amount of electrical power that can be supplied to the desired areas. Imagine what would happen if every gas guzzling car today needed a super-duper charger. The current electrical grid could not handle it.
Few people need a "super-duper charger". No doubt the grid needs improvement and will have to evolve and adapt, just as it did when the "light bill" was added to by refrigerators, electric ovens, electric heaters, air-conditioning, etc... And the infrastructure improvements can aid in our ability to use renewable overproduction in one region to satisfy demand in others. It's not the end of the world, it's the beginning of a better way.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:54 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:48 am
...Tesla battery day should further widen the gap in Tesla lead since legacy auto makers are not just crippled by selling high margin cars they are crippled bu lack of talent, vision and resources.
What is Tesla battery day?

An investor day with focus on new battery and powertrain tech. Likely discussion of Maxwell, etc.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KB-yc-lVExw
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

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