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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Sat Feb 22, 2020 12:52 pm
by LeftieBiker
Who else 10 years ago thought Toyota would be a leader in EVs due to their lead in hybrid technology?
Since they were - are are - using primarily NiMH batteries, not me.

As for comparing Tesla to legacy automakers: the only magic about Tesla is the willingness of its founder to throw truly fast amounts of money at the operation. They have made plenty of mistakes, both conceptual and pragmatic, and have used still more money to get passed them. If GM or Toyota had used Musk's business model, they would have either gone bankrupt or undergone a shareholder revolution in which upper management was evicted. GM could certainly have leveraged their Voltec and...Boltec? powertrains into many more so-called "electrified" vehicles, and Toyota could have several EVs by now if they chose, but it required a company willing to endure years and years of huge losses to get a big EV operation started. Tesla is the orange in the apple crate, not a miracle.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:00 pm
by DaveEV
LeftieBiker wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 12:52 pm
As for comparing Tesla to legacy automakers: the only magic about Tesla is the willingness of its founder to throw truly fast amounts of money at the operation.
Tesla has not spent the vast sums of money you seem to think it has. Toyota could have easily spent the money if they had wanted to. But you are right that Toyota (and other manufacturers) have not been willing to take the risk. Tesla has been willing to risk it all - but the gamble has paid off. They still have some growing pains - they need to scale up the Supercharger network and Service operations faster than ever - to keep up with the volume of product they are selling. But this should be easier now that they have reached a point where they have consistent, positive cashflow.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:01 pm
by johnlocke
DaveEV wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:00 pm
LeftieBiker wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 12:52 pm
As for comparing Tesla to legacy automakers: the only magic about Tesla is the willingness of its founder to throw truly fast amounts of money at the operation.
Tesla has not spent the vast sums of money you seem to think it has. Toyota could have easily spent the money if they had wanted to. But you are right that Toyota (and other manufacturers) have not been willing to take the risk. Tesla has been willing to risk it all - but the gamble has paid off. They still have some growing pains - they need to scale up the Supercharger network and Service operations faster than ever - to keep up with the volume of product they are selling. But this should be easier now that they have reached a point where they have consistent, positive cashflow.
Starting a new automobile company isn't cheap or for the faint-hearted. About the only thing more expensive is scrapping your existing automobile company to build a new one. That's why Ford and GM have dragged their feet for so long. They have to answer to their shareholders and explain the risks. Shareholders don't want hear this. For now, Ford and GM are putting out a halfhearted effort to try and appease everyone, They might be able to turn this around if they are willing to risk current profits to build the factories they need to compete. As it stands now they are just the walking dead.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Sat Feb 22, 2020 7:12 pm
by WetEV
johnlocke wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:01 pm
Starting a new automobile company isn't cheap or for the faint-hearted. About the only thing more expensive is scrapping your existing automobile company to build a new one. That's why Ford and GM have dragged their feet for so long. They have to answer to their shareholders and explain the risks. Shareholders don't want hear this. For now, Ford and GM are putting out a halfhearted effort to try and appease everyone, They might be able to turn this around if they are willing to risk current profits to build the factories they need to compete. As it stands now they are just the walking dead.
It's not just battery factories and EVs. It is more also and importantly charging networks.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:25 pm
by coleafrado
GaleHawkins wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:43 am
coleafrado wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 4:08 pm
nlspace wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:33 pm
Oh yeah they have a monopoly--a monopoly on patents for EVs.

Which of the auto makers posted all their patents online and said they would make them available to use for NO COST?
Remember that "NO COST" is shorthand for "we let you use our patents, you agree to irrevocably abandon your patents in the EV space."

From Lexology:
the Pledge states that a company is not acting in good faith if it has asserted “any patent right against a third party for its use of technologies relating to electric vehicles or related equipment.”
ref: https://www.lexology.com/library/detail ... 473d0754c7
coleafrado do you see your above post as factual? What was your agenda for making the above post?
Of course I see it as factual. People seem to think Tesla just public-domained all of their patents with no strings attached.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:03 pm
by nlspace
Elon did say that they wouldn't charge royalty$ to use the patents; i never investigated the "pledge" but it sounds almost like the Linux open source license where you can use the code for free.

What you got for free must be made available to others for free (open source).

If you used Elon's patent or part of it, then you couldn't try to enforce patent rights on any new aspect of it that you added. Maybe?

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:36 pm
by GRA
ABG:
Panasonic pulls out of Tesla solar plant in New York
Panasonic will continue its automotive battery joint venture with Tesla in Nevada
https://www.autoblog.com/2020/02/26/pan ... -new-york/


Panasonic will exit solar cell production at Tesla's New York plant, the latest sign of strain in a partnership where Panasonic's status as the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) maker's exclusive battery supplier is ending.

The move increases uncertainty over Tesla's solar business which is already under scrutiny, having been drastically scaled back since the U.S. firm bought it for $2.6 billion in 2016.

Tesla has informed New York that Panasonic's withdrawal "has no bearing on Tesla's current operations", the state said in a statement. The company employs over 1,500 jobs in the city of Buffalo, clearing its 1,460 commitment before April — and thereby avoiding a $41 million penalty — the state said.

Panasonic said in a statement on Wednesday that it would cease production by the end of May and exit the factory by the end of September.

The withdrawal comes as Panasonic scrambles to divest unprofitable businesses as its strategic shift to components from consumer electronics struggles to drive profit growth. . . .

n the solar business, low demand from Tesla has left Panasonic sending most of the cells it makes in Buffalo to overseas clients, instead of selling them to Tesla for its trademark Solar Roof — cells designed to resemble regular roof tiles — as initially intended.

When announcing the solar partnership in 2016, Panasonic said it would invest over 30 billion yen ($271.96 million) in the Buffalo plant. Tesla's long-term purchase commitment was part of the deal. . . .

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:04 pm
by GaleHawkins
nlspace wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:03 pm
Elon did say that they wouldn't charge royalty$ to use the patents; i never investigated the "pledge" but it sounds almost like the Linux open source license where you can use the code for free.

What you got for free must be made available to others for free (open source).

If you used Elon's patent or part of it, then you couldn't try to enforce patent rights on any new aspect of it that you added. Maybe?
The offer seems simple. The patents are public knowledge. Say if Ford wants to use any or all of Tesla's patents then Ford will legally give Tesla the right to use any or all of Fords patents. Sadly I expect since Ford has failed so far in the EV manufacturing they have no useful EV related patents perhaps.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:34 pm
by nlspace
i don't know if that is what it means or not, but like you said Ford has nothing of value to offer in their designs that Tesla (or anyone else) would want to pay for. Tesla is so far ahead it's ridiculous.

i reverse engineered a tesla board and found a simple design feature that adds a huge reliability factor that most designers will overlook; and i'm going to steal it for my own designs, but until the rest of the EV guys figure out this sort of thing they will always be JV and sitting on the bench.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:18 pm
by GaleHawkins
nlspace wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:34 pm
i don't know if that is what it means or not, but like you said Ford has nothing of value to offer in their designs that Tesla (or anyone else) would want to pay for. Tesla is so far ahead it's ridiculous.

i reverse engineered a tesla board and found a simple design feature that adds a huge reliability factor that most designers will overlook; and i'm going to steal it for my own designs, but until the rest of the EV guys figure out this sort of thing they will always be JV and sitting on the bench.
Elon Musk does plan to take his technology to Mars and over engineering is his middle name.

After I hit a speed bump getting my 30 kWh battery replaced under warranty even after the Nissan shop tested and confirmed the battery had fail per the warranty I started to doing some reading. I did not know what a wreck the Nissan corporation had become both management and product wise. Of course I knew about the battery mess but I thought that was behind them by 2015 only to learn the 2016 30 kWh battery was not even as good at the 2015 24 kWh.

Not sure why there is no second or third place competitors to Tesla. Elon states the engineers to drive EV technology just are not out there to be hired so Telsa develops them in house over time. I do not think Tesla's competitors will come from today's car companies but from new companies that will build off of Tesla's successful business model. They will be high tech and software companies with deep pockets. Ford and VW (joint venture) think they can pooled EV resources and compete but Tesla and SpaceX leap frogging others it will not be an easy task for Ford/VW to pull off. Tesla one day will have real competitors per Elon Musk said recently. He did say the old line company will catch up to where Tesla is at today but Tesla plans to keep moving forward so they never really get even.