cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:46 am

GaleHawkins wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:18 pm
Tesla's successful business model.
Successful business model? They haven't had a year where they've sold nor produced 500K vehicles. Hasn't had a calendar year with a net profit. If you add up their cumulative profits/losses, it ends up being a cumulative net loss of over $6 billion. If you look at page 66 of https://ir.tesla.com/node/20456/html and add up the net losses, that works out to about $4 billion in those 3 years. And, this is with selling expensive, high margin vehicles.

(For kicks, page 34 of https://ir.tesla.com/node/17621/html#Item_6 has some of their prior years. You need to multiply those values by 1000. That's another ~$2.3 billion in net loss if you use the attributable to common shareholders values.)

Per page 97, their total debt is also north of $12 billion.

In comparison, the largest automakers do 8 to 10 million vehicles a year (w/a full line of automobiles) and normally make billions of $ in profit/year. This is w/o CEOs sleeping at the factory, complaining about "production hell" and setting up tents outside their factories. And, see what I wrote at viewtopic.php?p=463875#p463875.

And, at times, it seems they're just interested in pushing vehicles out the door, defective or not. I've never ever owned or leased a new car that had this many or this sort of paint defects:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-4396523
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... es.124897/

I briefly mentioned the assembly defects I'd seen on this on guy's Model 3 at work at viewtopic.php?p=539275#p539275.

Whether it actually Tesla's business model becomes "successful" remains to be seen.
GaleHawkins wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:18 pm
Not sure why there is no second or third place competitors to Tesla.
Guess you've never heard of companies like BYD: https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/te ... omination/. The Leaf was the world's best selling EV but if the Model 3 hasn't passed it yet, it will real soon. Also see https://insideevs.com/news/396714/world ... oups-2019/.

I haven't seen a newer version of https://www.alliance-2022.com/news/alli ... s-in-2018/ from Jan 2019:
"In 2018, the Alliance maintained its commitment to zero-emission vehicles. Its leadership in the segment with cumulative sales of 724,905 electric vehicles since 2010 was driven by demand for the Renault ZOE and Nissan LEAF, among other EVs. "

Don't get me wrong. Tesla vehicles do have numerous advantages and things they do well (e.g. OTA updates, straight line performance, range and brand image) besides their excellent (in the US) Supercharger network.

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webb14leafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:22 am

Saying Tesla is an "unsuccessful" company because of losses to date is like calling Amazon unsuccessful prior to 2018. It's a little ridiculous. Tesla has followed a pretty predictable script. Take on debt and losses to build out capacity of a popular high margin product. The numbers you mentioned don't sound odd at all for a new company. There are several companies with similar or worse balance sheets and earnings history. Netflix, Roku, Beyond Meat, Uber, Lyft. Those are just a handful in my portfolio. Tesla has a much more secure runway than any of those companies.

GaleHawkins
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:06 am

cwerdna wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:46 am
GaleHawkins wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:18 pm
Tesla's successful business model.
Successful business model? They haven't had a year where they've sold nor produced 500K vehicles. Hasn't had a calendar year with a net profit. If you add up their cumulative profits/losses, it ends up being a cumulative net loss of over $6 billion. If you look at page 66 of https://ir.tesla.com/node/20456/html and add up the net losses, that works out to about $4 billion in those 3 years. And, this is with selling expensive, high margin vehicles.

(For kicks, page 34 of https://ir.tesla.com/node/17621/html#Item_6 has some of their prior years. You need to multiply those values by 1000. That's another ~$2.3 billion in net loss if you use the attributable to common shareholders values.)

Per page 97, their total debt is also north of $12 billion.

In comparison, the largest automakers do 8 to 10 million vehicles a year (w/a full line of automobiles) and normally make billions of $ in profit/year. This is w/o CEOs sleeping at the factory, complaining about "production hell" and setting up tents outside their factories. And, see what I wrote at viewtopic.php?p=463875#p463875.

And, at times, it seems they're just interested in pushing vehicles out the door, defective or not. I've never ever owned or leased a new car that had this many or this sort of paint defects:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-4396523
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... es.124897/

I briefly mentioned the assembly defects I'd seen on this on guy's Model 3 at work at viewtopic.php?p=539275#p539275.

Whether it actually Tesla's business model becomes "successful" remains to be seen.
GaleHawkins wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:18 pm
Not sure why there is no second or third place competitors to Tesla.
Guess you've never heard of companies like BYD: https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/te ... omination/. The Leaf was the world's best selling EV but if the Model 3 hasn't passed it yet, it will real soon. Also see https://insideevs.com/news/396714/world ... oups-2019/.

I haven't seen a newer version of https://www.alliance-2022.com/news/alli ... s-in-2018/ from Jan 2019:
"In 2018, the Alliance maintained its commitment to zero-emission vehicles. Its leadership in the segment with cumulative sales of 724,905 electric vehicles since 2010 was driven by demand for the Renault ZOE and Nissan LEAF, among other EVs. "

Don't get me wrong. Tesla vehicles do have numerous advantages and things they do well (e.g. OTA updates, straight line performance, range and brand image) besides their excellent (in the US) Supercharger network.
All I know Tesla is racing to the top and Nissan is winning the race to the bottom or to the exits.

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jlv
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:24 am

cwerdna wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:46 am
GaleHawkins wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:18 pm
Tesla's successful business model.
Successful business model? They haven't had a year where they've sold nor produced 500K vehicles.
That's an odd hurdle to claim. Last year they sold 365K. When was the last time a new auto manufacturer in the U.S. did anything similar?
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93K 100% BEV miles since '14
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webb14leafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:44 am

jlv wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:24 am
cwerdna wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:46 am
GaleHawkins wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:18 pm
Tesla's successful business model.
Successful business model? They haven't had a year where they've sold nor produced 500K vehicles.
That's an odd hurdle to claim. Last year they sold 365K. When was the last time a new auto manufacturer in the U.S. did anything similar?
More importantly, their sales are only limited by capacity. AKA - They sell them as fast as they can make them. Any company that can do that profitably is successful.

WetEV
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:02 am

Tesla has a chance to be the monopoly seller of cars.
Tesla could become a boutique brand, with a stock price 1/10 of todays.
Tesla has a larger chance of going broke.

I'm not even close to smart enough to guess which happens. If you think you are, well that's great.

The world might be going into an economic recession/depression triggered by COVID19 and exploded by debt and deficits. If so, demand for high end cars including Tesla's might decline. Tesla might not survive a sales downturn. Oil prices down, new car sales plummeting, used cars selling cheap. Air pollution and traffic problems might get rather better... cold comfort.

Or Tesla might maintain sales better than the big automakers, survive and explode in sales and profitability when the economy recovers.
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goldbrick
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:08 am

^wow, some common sense in the TSLA thread, who'd thunk it?

I wonder how many of today's TSLA investors lived through 1999 or even 2008 for that matter.

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jlv
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:05 am

cwerdna wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:46 am
GaleHawkins wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:18 pm
Tesla's successful business model.
Successful business model? They haven't had a year where they've sold nor produced 500K vehicles.
Just to point out how absurd that point of view ... lets show how it would have looked over the last 4 years...

Feb 2017: "They haven't had a year where they've sold nor produced 100K vehicles." (2016 97959)
Feb 2018: "They haven't had a year where they've sold nor produced 150K vehicles." (2017 135521)
Feb 2019: "They haven't had a year where they've sold nor produced 250K vehicles." (2018 220036)
Feb 2020: "They haven't had a year where they've sold nor produced 500K vehicles." (2019 365194)

These are all be true statements.
LEAF '13 SL+Prem (mfg 12/13, leased 4/14, bought 5/17, sold 11/18) 34K mi, AHr 58, SOH 87%
Tesla S 75D (3/17)
Tesla X 100D (12/18)
93K 100% BEV miles since '14
ICE free since '18

cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:06 am

jlv wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:24 am
cwerdna wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:46 am
GaleHawkins wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:18 pm
Tesla's successful business model.
Successful business model? They haven't had a year where they've sold nor produced 500K vehicles.
That's an odd hurdle to claim. Last year they sold 365K. When was the last time a new auto manufacturer in the U.S. did anything similar?
The major automakers produce and sell that 365K in about a month (or a bit less) or two.

My point is that Tesla's market cap makes no sense in light of their loss making ability and limited # vehicles they sell vs. other automakers.
goldbrick wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:08 am
I wonder how many of today's TSLA investors lived through 1999 or even 2008 for that matter.
Yep. I started dabbling in the stock market in 1997 when I had almost no money and didn't know squat about investing. And, it made no sense that the stock more than tripled from Oct 2019 to its recent peak. Did really THAT much actually change with respect to the company itself and what was going on there between those two time periods?

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GaleHawkins
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:08 am

WetEV wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:02 am
Tesla has a chance to be the monopoly seller of cars.
Tesla could become a boutique brand, with a stock price 1/10 of todays.
Tesla has a larger chance of going broke.

I'm not even close to smart enough to guess which happens. If you think you are, well that's great.

The world might be going into an economic recession/depression triggered by COVID19 and exploded by debt and deficits. If so, demand for high end cars including Tesla's might decline. Tesla might not survive a sales downturn. Oil prices down, new car sales plummeting, used cars selling cheap. Air pollution and traffic problems might get rather better... cold comfort.

Or Tesla might maintain sales better than the big automakers, survive and explode in sales and profitability when the economy recovers.
In KY we say 'mites' grow on chickens. :)

Have you read the book below by Ashlee Vance? If not consider it so your posts on this subject are factual based.

https://bookvideoclub.com/elon-musk-by ... summary/

More about the chickens. Chicken Little falsely said the sky is falling. If you are Tesla it may seem that the sky is rising. If you are Nissan it may seem like the sky is actually falling.

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