GaleHawkins
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:11 am

cwerdna wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:06 am
jlv wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:24 am
cwerdna wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:46 am

Successful business model? They haven't had a year where they've sold nor produced 500K vehicles.
That's an odd hurdle to claim. Last year they sold 365K. When was the last time a new auto manufacturer in the U.S. did anything similar?
The major automakers produce and sell that 365K in about a month (or a bit less) or two.

My point is that Tesla's market cap makes no sense in light of their loss making ability and limited # vehicles they sell vs. other automakers.
goldbrick wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:08 am
I wonder how many of today's TSLA investors lived through 1999 or even 2008 for that matter.
Yep. I started dabbling in the stock market in 1997 when I had almost no money and didn't know squat about investing. And, it made no sense that the stock more than tripled from Oct 2019 to its recent peak. Did really THAT much actually change with respect to the company itself and what was going on there between those two time periods?
Very little changed other than the minds of the investors.

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Nubo
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:26 pm

cwerdna wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:46 am
They haven't had a year where they've sold nor produced 500K vehicles. Hasn't had a calendar year with a net profit. If you add up their cumulative profits/losses, it ends up being a cumulative net loss of over $6 billion. If you look at page 66 of https://ir.tesla.com/node/20456/html and add up the net losses, that works out to about $4 billion in those 3 years. And, this is with selling expensive, high margin vehicles....
Honestly though, what would you expect the trajectory to look like for a brand-new automobile company focusing on EV technology, for you to be impressed?
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

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Nubo
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:40 pm

jlv wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:05 am
cwerdna wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:46 am
GaleHawkins wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:18 pm
Tesla's successful business model.
Successful business model? They haven't had a year where they've sold nor produced 500K vehicles.
Just to point out how absurd that point of view ... lets show how it would have looked over the last 4 years...

Feb 2017: "They haven't had a year where they've sold nor produced 100K vehicles." (2016 97959)
Feb 2018: "They haven't had a year where they've sold nor produced 150K vehicles." (2017 135521)
Feb 2019: "They haven't had a year where they've sold nor produced 250K vehicles." (2018 220036)
Feb 2020: "They haven't had a year where they've sold nor produced 500K vehicles." (2019 365194)

These are all be true statements.
The goalposts keep moving but they won't forever. I've seen this with folks I talk to about EVs. The price/performance people insist is required before theyd "ever think of an electric car" has risen dramatically over the years as each successive demand has been met. There's only so much you can ask for, before seeing it delivered convinces you. The crossover point has an air of inevitability.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:23 pm

Reddit’s Profane, Greedy Traders Are Shaking Up the Stock Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ock-market
"Chatter on message boards is reshaping the options market and sparking wild rallies."

I figured this is a good place since Tesla's mentioned and obviously has been subject to some wild moves recently.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:42 pm

cwerdna wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:23 pm
"Chatter on message boards is reshaping the options market and sparking wild rallies."
Day traders in the 1990's ended so well.
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jlv
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:50 am

WetEV wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:42 pm
cwerdna wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:23 pm
"Chatter on message boards is reshaping the options market and sparking wild rallies."
Day traders in the 1990's ended so well.
Tied to an Internet-based pump and dump source.
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cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:11 am

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1237204618850992129
"Congratulations Tesla team on making our 1,000,000th car!!"

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GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:41 pm

GCR:
Will cheaper gas slow Tesla's Surge?
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... la-s-surge

One good reason to buy an electric car is to save money on fuel, so will low gas prices slow down Tesla sales?

Wall Street, it seems, says "no."

In a recent Barron's article, two Wall Street analysts said they believe electric-car adoption is now largely decoupled from gas prices.

While some customers may be turned away by cheap gas, "the overall environmental movement" as well as technological improvements will likely "neutralize" any drop in gas prices, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron's.

The cost differential between gasoline and electricity is "nonmaterial" in EV purchase decisions, New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu told Barron's, while noting that many buyers use potential gas savings to "comfort themselves" about their purchases.

This prediction is very different from what actually happened to hybrids and other fuel-efficient cars with a gas tank when gas prices rose in the wake of the 2008 economic recession. . . .

Not everyone agrees that electric cars are immune to oil-price fluctuations.

Tesla won't achieve "mass-market volume" for another decade, Morningstar analyst David Whiston said in an interview with The Street.

Other analyses have linked electric-car adoption to oil prices, claiming sales would increase as oil prices rose.

One certainty is that automakers now face more regulatory pressure to sell electric cars—in Europe and China, at least.

Summary- some say yes, some say no :roll: My take is that high-end BEVs will be more immune to gas price drops than (closer to) mass-market-priced ones.

In other news, via ABG:
Tesla chief Elon Musk's trial postponed due to coronavirus
Shareholders complained SolarCity deal benefitted Musk at their expense
https://www.autoblog.com/2020/03/13/elo ... ronavirus/
Last edited by GRA on Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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GaleHawkins
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:40 am

[/url] https://electrek.co/2020/03/13/tesla-mo ... -climates/ [/url]

Tesla Model Y has a heat pump for consistent range in cold climates

No heat pump was the main Tesla negative in my view since getting the Leaf with the heat pump feature. Since the Model Y now has it as well as a factory tow package per the manual that makes me more excited about owning a Tesla. Now if they were the price of a Leaf I would be cooking with gas. :)

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:30 pm

As is mentioned in the comments section (and not at al by the idiot author) there are many different heat pumps, with effective heating temp ranges that can end as high as right at Freezing, to -25F, so until Tesla publishes actual specs and/or drivers do tests in cold temps, it won't be known how much of an advantage this particular heat pump gives the Model Y.
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