goldbrick
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:23 am

If this follows the dot-com bust, we'll be seeing folks bragging about buying TSLA at $1200 after the cusp. Of course, it may be $600 a few months after that.....

It is entertaining to watch the mania in real time although it's hard not to have some FOMO pangs thinking back to when it was trading at $250. But I'm too old to play that game.

WetEV
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:08 pm

I don't have FOMO for not having put my net worth on odd, when the wheel rolls odd.

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cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:23 pm

Tesla former VP of quality explains why 1st batch of Teslas might not be ones to get
https://electrek.co/2020/07/13/tesla-fo ... ns-issues/
Chain shared a discussion he had about the Model S test program ahead of the production:

“Another good example is the long-term durability evaluation of a car. When I discussed it with Elon, I told him our engineers’ calculations led to at least a million equivalent miles of driving required before launching the car — a six-month phase required to discover potential weaknesses and fix them. My request was actually very limited in regards to the industry practices: German manufacturers don’t release a car that has not clocked 10 million kilometers and two winters. Elon, in his customary laconic way, answered: “OK, do it. But we are not delaying the launch date for it… — But we might encounter issues that will require some modifications of the production models… — Yeah, I know, but we will make the changes afterward if we have to… — Even if it involves recalling some cars? — Yes. And for the rest, we will adjust by pushing some OTA upgrades (Tesla’s main software is maintained and upgraded remotely on a regular basis, just like a PC).”

The executive said that Musk didn’t care about shipping cars with inconsistent panel gaps that could be fixed later because he believes that consumers will be willing to overlook the quality issue in order to drive the car.
The first part perfectly lines up with what I've been pointing out for a long time:
viewtopic.php?p=498198#p498198
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2429&p=497971&hili ... ty#p497971
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18016&p=497155&hil ... ty#p497155
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18016&p=541134&hil ... ty#p541134

The fact that he worked at Renault before Tesla should give pause... And, German automakers (since he mentioned them) aren't exactly known for good long-term reliability either. So, if they do that much and Tesla takes shortcuts... I did start viewtopic.php?f=12&t=17305 awhile ago.

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GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:38 pm

It took them 17 years, but via ABG:
Tesla reports profit for fourth straight quarter, setting it up to join S&P 500

Next steps: Musk says 'our cars are not affordable enough, we need to fix that'

https://www.autoblog.com/2020/07/22/tes ... t-quarter/

Musk on a conference call on Wednesday said Tesla would prioritize growth over profit going forward and focus on making its vehicles more affordable.

"The thing that bugs me most right now is that our cars are not affordable enough, we need to fix that," Musk said on the call. "I think we just want to be like slightly profitable and maximize growth and make the cars as affordable as possible."

Now, will they be profitable for the FY?
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GaleHawkins
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:22 am

Is there any auto maker going to be profitable for the FY?

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jlv
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:40 am

GRA wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:38 pm
Now, will they be profitable for the FY?
This is a great thread. Go back a few years and the statement was "Tesla will never be profitable." When they had their first profitable quarter, it was "when will they have another?" Who knows when they'll be profitable for a FY, this or any other. But they continue to make amazing progress.

This thread is full of great wisdom, like this post to an article claiming
VW Claims By 2020, Its Electric Cars Will Match Tesla At Half Price
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smkettner
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:18 am

GaleHawkins wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:22 am
Is there any auto maker going to be profitable for the FY?
Yes, Tesla. The rest I don't know.
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GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:02 pm

GaleHawkins wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:22 am
Is there any auto maker going to be profitable for the FY?

Beats me. The difference is most of them, with obvious exceptions, have been annually profitable for decades. Tesla has yet to manage that, but at last they're getting closer.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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DaveEV
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:20 pm

GRA wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:02 pm
Beats me. The difference is most of them, with obvious exceptions, have been annually profitable for decades. Tesla has yet to manage that, but at last they're getting closer.
Elon's quote which you posted above, flat out says not to expect significant profits for the foreseeable future. With over $8 billion in the bank, I would not be surprised to see negative quarters or even negative years going forward, until they stop investing capital into factories, service centers and Superchargers.

Amazon ran this way for decades and used it to create a dominant market position.

Tesla is doing the same thing.

Once a company starts accruing large profits, it gets lazy, and will lose it's edge and rate of growth.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:51 pm

Amazon acquired or destroyed most of its competitors. Tesla is still going to have lots of competition in 5 years.
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