cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:25 am

GRA wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:46 pm
CR also requires a certain minimum number of responses to their customer surveys for a particular model, to ensure that they're statistically valid; if they don't have enough, that model won't get a reliability rating for that particular year, until they do have enough responses. This is primarily an issue with new models and new generations of existing models. I forget the number, but the methodology used in their reliability ratings is explained every year in the April auto issue.
True. They used to actually say online that the minimum sample size was 100 for a given model year of a vehicle. They stopped saying the amount for at least a year or two. https://www.consumerreports.org/car-rel ... ility-faq/ (if you search for siz) also doesn't give a definitive number.

Now that I've had time to look at Model X reliability, it is pretty terrible but they had NA (meaning insufficient sample size) for model year 2020. That might explain Model X not being in the bottom 10 reliability chart.

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SageBrush
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:53 am

cwerdna wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:25 am
Now that I've had time to look at Model X reliability
Are you still driving your Bolt ?

CR needs a new category: dumpster fire vehicles
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

GaleHawkins
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Nov 20, 2020 7:03 am

I expect by 2030 CR will start to show some validity when comes to EVs. The dependability of the best gas engine can not match a Leaf motor a decade down the road.

cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:41 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:53 am
cwerdna wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:25 am
Now that I've had time to look at Model X reliability
Are you still driving your Bolt ?

CR needs a new category: dumpster fire vehicles
:roll: Yep.

i'm not particularly worried at the moment. The My Chevrolet app still shows no recalls for my vehicle and I need to check NHSTA/safercar.gov w/my VIN again (had done it a few days back and it showed no recalls). I also need to see if I can find the battery pack part number label. It's possible mine has cells or a pack not from Ochang, South Korea. Whether or not only packs/cells have whatever issue that has caused the fires is still unclear.

I am now only charging to 90% SoC and because I charge away from home anyway (and not often), it's somewhere below 90% by the time I arrive home. I'm now at 76% SoC.

That said, if more Bolt fires occur with cars below 90% SoC and we hit say 100 vs. the 5 we know of now, then I'd be getting worried.

Looking at CR right now, Bolt has a predicted reliability of 5 out of 5. Every single model year has the highest icon (out of the 5) for reliability, which is surprisingly good for a GM vehicle. And, I'm no fan of GM.

The Model X is a dumpster fire when it comes to reliability. Just look at https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-x/2 ... ap-up.html under Maintenance & Repairs. There are so many other similar stories on TMC relating to the disastrous doors and the ongoing acceleration shudder issue where people getting getting their half-shafts replaced. This is it besides being in the bottom 10 of reliability in Consumer Reports every single year they've had sufficient data.
GaleHawkins wrote: I expect by 2030 CR will start to show some validity when comes to EVs. The dependability of the best gas engine can not match a Leaf motor a decade down the road.
CR already has a fair amount of data for EVs that have sold in large numbers and/or have been selling for awhile. EV's aren't automatically reliable. On that note was https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids ... tric-cars/.

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SageBrush
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:59 pm

cwerdna wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:41 pm
i'm not particularly worried at the moment [about the Bolt]
The Model X is a dumpster fire when it comes to reliability.
Car shudder Vs self-immolation. Yeah, I'm not surprised you harp on the former and ignore the latter depending on the manufacturer.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:06 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:59 pm
cwerdna wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:41 pm
i'm not particularly worried at the moment [about the Bolt]
The Model X is a dumpster fire when it comes to reliability.
Car shudder Vs going up in flames. Yeah, I'm not surprised you harp on the former and ignore the latter depending on the manufacturer.
:roll: Pot calling the kettle black? For the Edmunds Model X:
We learned something about Tesla maintenance from owning a Model S: There can be a lot of it. The general theme will feel familiar. During 20 months of ownership, our Model X went in for service seven times, spent 19 days out of commission, and had a total of 32 issues addressed.
In comparison, my Bolt has been to the dealer for any type of service 0 times, so far and I'm past 20 months.

I don't recall slamming Tesla for incidents like these, when they happened:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-elec ... ack-tweet/
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... california - this made local news
https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-b ... ngs-2019-7
https://www.thedrive.com/news/28420/par ... l-in-sight - includes the above 3 incidents

And, Tesla issued updates after fire incidents like https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/16/1862 ... -model-s-x.

Seriously, let's see what further incidents happen (if any with Bolt) and what the investigations find. The outcome could be anything from minor/few vehicles affected to something quite bad financially and in terms of PR for GM or GM & LG Chem.

It's been known for a very long time that Tesla reliability is rather questionable, which was what WetEV's pointer was to. And, to be fair, the reliability of GM vehicles across their whole lineup isn't particularly good either.

Again, I have some criteria for myself as to when/why I might start to get worried about my own Bolt, some of which I've listed. We will see. I personally know other pre-'20 Bolt drivers. We have a bunch at my work but almost nobody's going to the office now due to COVID. There are also 3 other Bolts on my street (one got replaced by a '20, probably due to end of lease of their 1st one). Two of them had Bolts longer than me by quite a bit. None of us had fires as so far as the numbers are tiny vs. the entire Bolt population.

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SageBrush
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:34 pm

^^
Let me guess: fires from catastrophic accidents and those while parked are one in the same to you.

:o :shock: :lol:
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:16 pm

WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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2014 Leaf SL Red
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cwerdna
Posts: 11550
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:31 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:34 pm
^^
Let me guess: fires from catastrophic accidents and those while parked are one in the same to you.

:o :shock: :lol:
:roll: None of the below were from catastrophic accidents. The flat tire one is unclear. It's possible the tire shop punctured the pack.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-elec ... ack-tweet/
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... california - this made local news
https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-b ... ngs-2019-7
https://www.thedrive.com/news/28420/par ... l-in-sight - includes the above 3 incidents

Search https://www.thedrive.com/news/28420/par ... l-in-sight for status. I see: charging, parked, parked, parked, plugged in garage then being transported, parked, stopped in traffic, charging.

Does https://twitter.com/marycmccormack/stat ... 71394?s=20 look like a "catastrophic accident" to you?

BTW, Model X dumpster fire level of reliability is not only with the half-shafts. It's with it being in the bottom 10 of reliability of Consumer Reports for at least 4 years in a row and problems w/all sorts of stuff such as the doors, which I apparently discussed with you at https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic. ... 18#p564118.

https://web.archive.org/web/20200126073 ... able-cars/ - Nov 2019
https://web.archive.org/web/20190601064 ... able-cars/ - Feb 2019
https://web.archive.org/web/20181025102 ... able-cars/ - Oct 2018
https://web.archive.org/web/20171116104 ... able-cars/ - Oct 2017
https://web.archive.org/web/20161027114 ... able-cars/ - Oct 2016

Image is pretty embarrassing and frankly, a result of the unnecessary "FWD". That led that guy to post https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-1733581
Well, here you go. I am OFFICIALLY DONE - I have not had a single week with the car back without issues with the FWD. What I have noticed is that if the car is facing the sun even on a relatively cool day of 70-75 degrees, the door just doesn't operate properly. Here is a video (I've recorded several others on separate days, but have not had time to upload to youtube):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVjekN15fsk

And bunch of people at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-1748642 had "snapping" problems w/the FWD like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqrGFoTxIjU. Can cause problems like Image.

Notice no major automakers put anything like this on any of their mainstream cars? Fortunately, Elon did not go down this route w/the Model Y...

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jlv
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:51 am

cwerdna wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:41 pm
ongoing acceleration shudder issue where people getting getting their half-shafts replaced.
Our Model X had the hard acceleration shudder and we had the half-shafts replaced under warranty a year ago. It has not returned. It only happened when you effectively floor it - my wife never even noticed the problem, but I did when I read about it and tested the car. Not something I'm concerned about.
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