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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu May 17, 2018 6:45 am
by edatoakrun
Time to laugh... or cry?
Tesla will need to raise more than $10 billion in capital through 2020: Goldman Sachs

Tesla Inc. TSLA, +0.01% will need more than $10 billion in capital raises and debt refinancing by 2020, Goldman Sachs analysts said Thursday. That is the sum needed to fund its current operations, new product spend and capacity additions, analysts led by David Tamberrino wrote in a note...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... 2018-05-17

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu May 17, 2018 7:10 am
by WetEV
edatoakrun wrote:Time to laugh... or cry?
Tesla will need to raise more than $10 billion in capital through 2020: Goldman Sachs

Tesla Inc. TSLA, +0.01% will need more than $10 billion in capital raises and debt refinancing by 2020, Goldman Sachs analysts said Thursday. That is the sum needed to fund its current operations, new product spend and capacity additions, analysts led by David Tamberrino wrote in a note...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... 2018-05-17
If TSLA decided to slow growth and focus on profit, this number would be a lot less. Maybe even zero.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu May 17, 2018 7:55 am
by edatoakrun
WetEV wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:Time to laugh... or cry?
Tesla will need to raise more than $10 billion in capital through 2020: Goldman Sachs

Tesla Inc. TSLA, +0.01% will need more than $10 billion in capital raises and debt refinancing by 2020, Goldman Sachs analysts said Thursday. That is the sum needed to fund its current operations, new product spend and capacity additions, analysts led by David Tamberrino wrote in a note...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... 2018-05-17
If TSLA decided to slow growth and focus on profit, this number would be a lot less. Maybe even zero.
No. Even if it halted all vehicle production and capital spending today, TSLA would still to raise many billions in new cash in the next few years to pay off the short-term debt it incurred from losing much of the money it borrowed in order to deliver the BEVs it has built to date.

TSLA's high debt levels, poor credit quality, and extreme dilution of future profits (if any) due to the ridiculous level of equity floated already, make its future capital needs problematic.

BTW, the article above has been updated:
Tesla needs to raise $10.5 billion in capital to keep going through 2020: Goldman Sachs

...That’s the sum needed from external capital raises and debt refinancing for the electric-car maker to fund its current operations and finance new product spend and capacity additions, Goldman analysts led by David Tamberrino wrote in a Thursday note...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... 2018-05-17

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu May 17, 2018 8:07 am
by EVDRIVER
edatoakrun wrote:Time to laugh... or cry?
Tesla will need to raise more than $10 billion in capital through 2020: Goldman Sachs

Tesla Inc. TSLA, +0.01% will need more than $10 billion in capital raises and debt refinancing by 2020, Goldman Sachs analysts said Thursday. That is the sum needed to fund its current operations, new product spend and capacity additions, analysts led by David Tamberrino wrote in a note...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... 2018-05-17

I laugh at your posts every time and your obsessive compulsion on this topic. You sure are vested in Tesla.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu May 17, 2018 8:26 am
by LTLFTcomposite
If you were raising a chicken that lays golden eggs with the following parameters:
- The chicken requires golden chicken feed to grow
- Egg production is expected to be at least 10x what the chicken consumed in feed while it was growing
- There is no apparent upper bound on how large the chicken can grow, the bigger it grows the bigger the eggs

How long would you go before you stop feeding it? I'm thinking you'd grind up every egg into feed and get your hands on every other bit of gold feed you could until the chicken was like Godzilla before saying OK chicken no more gold feed, just sit there and lay eggs the size of city buses.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu May 17, 2018 8:34 am
by lorenfb
WetEV wrote: If TSLA decided to slow growth and focus on profit, this number would be a lot less. Maybe even zero.
You are aware that TSLA refers to Tesla's stock symbol, right? So it's Tesla and not its stock symbol (TSLA) that decides about its growth.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu May 17, 2018 8:38 am
by edatoakrun
LTLFTcomposite wrote:If you were raising a chicken that lays golden eggs with the following parameters:
- The chicken requires golden chicken feed to grow
- Egg production is expected to be at least 10x what the chicken consumed in feed while it was growing
- There is no apparent upper bound on how large the chicken can grow, the bigger it grows the bigger the eggs...
Did you receive a leak of Musk's latest product plan update for the upcoming TSLA Q2 report...?

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu May 17, 2018 9:25 am
by WetEV
edatoakrun wrote:Even if it halted all vehicle production and capital spending today, TSLA would still to raise many billions in new cash in the next few years to pay off the short-term debt it incurred from losing much of the money it borrowed in order to deliver the BEVs it has built to date.
Stopping vehicle production would be counter productive. Perhaps you mean vehicle development?

If TSLA continued vehicle production and prioritized capital spending to production bottlenecks only, then TSLA might increase revenue to $20 billion per year next year and rising only slowly after that, have a free cash flow over $1 billion per year starting next year and rising, and GAAP profits near $0.6 billion per year next year and doubling after that. So yes, TSLA would need to raise less than $1 billion next year to cover the $1.816 billion coming due next year. However, TSLA would be debt free and perhaps repurchasing shares by 2023 or so. And would never be much bigger than $30 billion (2018 dollars) per year in revenue.

Or TSLA might try to grow to maintain vehicle market share. Would look something like Ford in a decade, but much smaller.

Or TSLA might target GAAP breakeven, and need to continue to borrow. Could perhaps grow at 20% per year.

Or TSLA might continue to focus on very rapid growth and large and increasing losses. Can't go on all that much larger, as another decade like the last would make TSLA revenue $16T. US GDP is about $18T.

I don't know what is going to happen. Got popcorn.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu May 17, 2018 9:32 am
by WetEV
lorenfb wrote:You are aware that TSLA refers to Tesla's stock symbol, right? So it's Tesla and not its stock symbol (TSLA) that decides about its growth.
Of course. T esla is highlighted like Tesla and TSLA

I'd rather have T esla or TSLA with no highlight. A style preference.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Thu May 17, 2018 11:05 am
by LTLFTcomposite
WetEV wrote: I don't know what is going to happen. Got popcorn.
It is a fascinating situation. I find the people predicting what will happen with any certainty to be the least credible. There are simply waaaay too many possibilities for how it will play out.